LNP 6.3%
Incumbent Lord Mayor
Adrian Schrinner, since 2019.
History
The City of Brisbane has had a popularly elected mayor for most of its history, including from 1934 to 1975.
The popularly elected mayoralty was restored in 1982, when Labor’s Roy Harvey was elected. Labor had been in power since 1961.
In 1985, Harvey lost to Liberal candidate Sallyanne Atkinson, the first Liberal to win the Brisbane lord mayoralty.
Atkinson held the mayoralty for two terms, losing to Labor’s Jim Soorley in 1991.
Soorley held office for four terms, being re-elected in 1994, 1997 and 2000.
In 2003, Soorley resigned and was replaced by Labor councillor Tim Quinn.
In 2004, Quinn was defeated by Liberal candidate Campbell Newman. Labor suffered a 15.6% drop in their primary vote. Newman was re-elected with a Liberal council majority in 2008.
In 2011, Newman resigned when he was elected state leader of the Liberal National Party. He went on to win the 2012 election and serve one term as Premier of Queensland before losing the election, and his own seat of Ashgrove, in 2015.
LNP deputy mayor Graham Quirk was appointed to finish Newman’s term, and he was re-elected in his own right in 2012 and 2016.
Quirk retired in 2019 and was succeeded by Adrian Schrinner. Schrinner had previously served as deputy mayor since 2011 and as the councillor for Chandler ward since 2005. Schrinner won a full term in 2020.
- Bruce Tanti (Independent)
- Tracey Price (Labor)
- Adrian Schrinner (Liberal National)
- Clive Brazier (Legalise Cannabis)
- Gilbert Holmes (Independent)
- Jonathan Sriranganathan (Greens)
Assessment
Schrinner remains the favourite to win re-election.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 292,895 | 47.7 | -5.8 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 189,832 | 30.9 | -1.1 |
| Kath Angus | Greens | 94,481 | 15.4 | +5.0 |
| Karagh-Mae Kelly | Animal Justice | 19,022 | 3.1 | +3.1 |
| Jeff Hodges | Motorists Party | 5,502 | 0.9 | +0.9 |
| Frank Jordan | Independent | 4,008 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| John Dobinson | Independent | 3,461 | 0.6 | +0.6 |
| Ben Gorringe | Independent | 2,270 | 0.4 | +0.4 |
| Jarrod Wirth | Independent | 2,065 | 0.3 | -0.2 |
| Informal | 16,425 | 2.6 |
2020 mayoral two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Adrian Schrinner | Liberal National | 306,905 | 56.3 | -3.0 |
| Pat Condren | Labor | 237,988 | 43.7 | +3.0 |
| Exhausted | 68,643 | 11.9 |
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in 21 out of 26 wards. They won the 2PP in the 19 wards won by the LNP council candidate, along with the Labor ward of Morningside and the independent ward of Tennyson. Labor won the four other Labor wards and the Greens ward of The Gabba.
Labor gained swings in 23 out of 26 wards, ranging from a 0.5% swing in Hamilton to a 10.4% swing in Marchant. The LNP gained swings ranging from 1.55% in The Gap to 6.3% in MacGregor.
Labor’s strongest areas tended to be south of the river, particularly in the south-west along with the outer east and outer north. The LNP did best on primary votes on the north side of the river along with Chandler in the south-east.
The Greens had their highest vote in the inner city, peaking in The Gabba followed by the surrounding wards.
Mayoral election results at the 2020 Brisbane City Council election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
We have a perfect score on the Economist’s
Democracy index for the “Electoral Process and Pluralism” category. Something we share with 11 other countries.
I just think your view is not really well supported on this point.
You are correct when you say things could be better. I’m not arguing against that.
I don’t think that would be measuring the electoral system. Yes, we have good process. That is not the electoral system.
If the Greens end up with more seats on BCC than the ALP while polling than them, PR will happen very fast.
I once painstakingly read through the methodology of the Democracy Index, including all the items that go into calculating it. Ben is right, there is no component in there whatsoever that measures the efficacy of voting methods.
“Electoral process and pluralism” aggregates whether elections are free and fair (“no” means there is corruption, coercion, interference, or bans on candidates or parties), universal suffrage, and freedom of political association (e.g. forming or belonging to a political party or other organisation).
(A fun piece of trivia – Australia loses a point under “political culture” for having compulsory voting!)
(Correction – It’s under political participation, not political culture.)
Fair cop. I didn’t realise that the Democracy index worked in that way. I noticed the US measures a 9.17 for that criteria, so that is a big red flag haha.
It’s a good index, it’s just it needs to accommodate for everything from North Korea to the Nordic states and everything in between. So a score of 70% is actually very bad for a country that views itself as a liberal democracy.
my favourite Economist democracy science fact is that apartheid Israel, whose Arab population was recently downgraded from something like helots to something closer to vermin in a fumigated house, is exactly 0.05 units more democratic than portugal
@Wilson
This aged well… 😉
“Nether Portal, I really don’t know where you’re getting this idea from that Labor are working with the Greens. Price has repeatedly ruled it out, attacked the Greens several times and has implied Labor won’t be referencing the Greens on their HTVs.”
Mark Yore, I don’t understand what you’re crowing about. Price did imply she wouldn’t preference the Greens. While saner heads have prevailed on that score, there’s still little to suggest she’s actively working with the Greens given she’s attacked their policies.
@Mark Yore beat me to it.
Hang on is someone trying to say the ALP is working with the Greens?
@Ben Messenger I’m fairly agnostic on the type of voting system used, but I wouldn’t mind if we stuck with the same one for all Councils. Preferably the same one the State used.
Remembering of course that the Queensland Government can change this for all Councils overnight – although Brisbane might be a more difficult case because it falls under the City of Brisbane Act and not the Local Government Act.
@Ben Raue No, the ALP was trying to say they weren’t working with The Greens. 🙂
Although there’s normally the fig leaf of sticking a few minor parties between the two for plausible denial.
What because they’re indicating preferences? Pretty weak evidence. They clearly do not get on.
@Wilson “Imply” is such a weasel word…
ABC News, 20 November 2023 – https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-20/labor-rules-out-greens-coalition-at-brisbane-city-council/103120820?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
In the same interview, council Opposition Leader Jared Cassidy also said Labor would not do any deals with LNP, Greens, or independent councillors. “If they want to support Labor’s agenda, then good on them and we will take their votes,” he said. “But there’s no coalition. There’s no agreement.”
Asked where Labor would preference the Greens on its how-to-vote cards, Ms Price said: “We are calling for just vote 1 Labor”. “We are not offering any preferences as far as the Greens or the LNP,” she said.
Mark Yore, okay, and your point is?
Labor changed its mind on HTVs (for sensible reason – they’re going to be reliant on Greens preferences for any wards they gain so it isn’t really in their interest to encourage exhaustion like it is for the LNP) but there isn’t any sort of formal deal.
In Brisbane today. Election day is in two days (all elections in Australia are on Saturday).
A BCC poll has dropped omfg wowwww!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! from DemosAU. Predicting a Schrinner reelection (with an increased majority, lmao) for the mayoralty but not making specific predictions about ward results. Copypasting @LocalElectionAU’s twitter summary because I’m lazy:
BRISBANE LORD MAYOR POLL 🚨
🟦 Schrinner (LNP): 46.7% (-1.0)
🟥 Price (ALP): 25.8 (-5.1)
🟩 Sriranganathan (GRN): 21.6 (+6.2)
🟩 Brazier (LCQ): 3.1
⬜️ Holmes (IND): 1.4%
⬜️ Tanti (IND): 1.4%
2PP:
🟦 Schrinner (LNP): 57.7% (+1.4)
🟥 Price (ALP): 42.3 (-1.4)
BRISBANE CITY COUNCIL (WARDS) POLL 🚨
🟦 Liberal National: 43.7% (-3.8)
🟥 Labor: 31.3% (-2.5)
🟩 Greens: 25.0% (+6.3)
Most eye watering statistic for me is the under 35 vote. They’re predicting a 44% primary vote for the greens across the city among that cohort, almost *twice* that for the LNP, who only poll 24% among them.
forgot the link: https://demosau.com/schrinner-on-track-for-re-election-in-brisbane-city-council-lord-mayoral-race/
More detailed info, including some crosstabs are here: https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/DemosAU-Brisbane-City-Council-Release.pdf
A single poll is just too little data to say much of anything about.
What a bizarre region breakdown btw, lol, 2 categories: Inner and Western Suburbs (one category) and Outer Suburbs (the other category).
Oh and also a pretty meaty margin of error, +/- 4%
The reason for the region breakdown appears to be that they’re grouping wards that mostly overlap with federal Greens seats along with Tennyson
I think if the greens vote for mayor surges, Schrinner may end up with even the same 2PP with Labor as a sizable portion of greens votes exhaust.
My prediction:
Lord Mayor: LNP Retain
LNP: 45% (-3% swing)
LAB: 30% (~ roughly unchanged)
GRN: 20% (+5% swing)
OTH: 5% (~ roughly unchanged)
2PP: 53 LNP 47 ALP (-3% swing)
Wards: Reduced LNP Majority (13 wards needed for majority)
LNP: 14 (-5)
ALP: 7 (+2)
GRN: 4 (+3)
IND: 1 (unchanged)
Greens easily gain Paddington + Walter Taylor, then win one of either Central or Coorparoo.
Labor gain 2 from the following: Northgate, Calamvale, Holland Park
Wow! we got a poll!? Not long before I was about to get grumpy about the lack of interest in this election.
I can’t help but feel that there is comparatively little interest or commentary on this Council election compaired to 2020. It might just be that Labor’s ex-journalist 2020 Lord Mayoral Candidate Pat Condron was a bit more high-profile, or at least knew the right people, to stir the commentary up a bit more. I can’t see Labor going anywhere but a step backwards given their fairly lacklustre campaign, and their current poor State Gov polling, but it’s hard to say if will be enough to see the Greens move to second place in the Lord Mayoral result. It will also be interesting to see how Jono Sriranganathan performs on a city-wide level; he seems to be from the more ‘radical’ wing of the Greens, which is something new compared to the more corporate-vibes-y Greens State and Fed MPs like Michael Berkman and Elizabeth Watson-Brown whose initial victories outside of the QLD Greens heartland in The Gabba Ward/South Brisbane Electorate, were both something of an upset.
I also can’t help but feel that LM Schrinner certainly doesn’t seem to have the energy or personal popularity which his predecessors Newman and Quirk had; in the 19 years since his election to Chandler Ward in 2005 (correct me if I’m getting dates wrong), he has never been in a Council Chamber that didn’t have a Liberal/LNP Lord Mayor, and perhaps that lack of time in opposition shows. Regardless, there doesn’t seem to be any suggestion that the winner on Saturday will be anyone other than him.
As an aside, his comments in the papers recently about remaining as Lord Mayor for a full 2024-28 term are interesting; Newman was LM for 7 years and left less than a year from the 2012 BCC election, and Quirk was then LM for 8 years before leaving less than a year before the 2020 BCC election. Schrinner would be the first LM for a long time (possibly ever?) to go into a third Mayoral election as a full-term incumbent if he runs again in 2028 – a year when Queenslanders are scheduled to be going to the polls for Council, State AND Federal Elections…
I’m in Rochedale today. Seen signs for all three candidates in this suburb and in other suburbs around the Chandler Ward, a safe LNP ward. Rochedale itself is LNP-voting on all levels of politics, but it overlaps with the marginal state Labor seat of Mansfield (a major target for the LNP) and the marginal federal LNP seat of Bonner. However, the LNP consistently wins booths in and around Rochedale itself. Interestingly, the nearby suburb of Rochedale South actually is less LNP-voting despite usually voting for the LNP, but Rochedale South is actually in the City of Logan, not the City of Brisbane, so voters in Rochedale South will be electing the Mayor of Logan and a councillor for Logan’s Division 1, while voters in Rochedale and Mackenzie will be electing the Lord Mayor of Brisbane and a ward councillor for Chandler.
My friends here have voted LNP and the atmosphere and historical statistics mean the LNP will win this booth comfortably.
In other news, a Brisbane City Council opinion poll shows that the LNP and Labor will both have a decreased vote share at the ward and lord mayoral elections, but the LNP is set to hold on to its majority and, according to the poll, may even get a small swing in favour of Adrian Schrinner in the race for Lord Mayor.
In Rochedale, Nether Portal, The Tally Room.
The poll also has, as expected, a surge in the Greens vote in both the councillor races and the mayoral race. Nevertheless, the Greens are actually still behind Labor in terms of vote share.
BCC results I expect to highlight the difficulty that Labor is in Qld being challenged on two flanks – trying to reel in the regional votes leaves them exposed to the Greens in Brisbane.
@Doug and reeling in inner-city voters who are thinking of voting Greens will desert regional voters to the LNP, One Nation and KAP.
Those are great poll results for Greens and given their focused campaign and good booth game they should be able to get a pretty decent haul of wards. The main obstacle for Sriranganathan is that outside federal Greens territory Greens will get pretty similar votes to usual. In a suburban booth where neither party is trying very hard Labor will significantly outpoll the Greens. They can only run up the score in Gabba Ward so much
The Greens have a tendency to overperform in certain elections so whatever the opinion polls (that aren’t on Wikipedia) say may get an extra ward than anticipated
@Caleb the polling is on Wikipedia. Go to 2024 Brisbane City Council election.
Predictions for the Election tonight.
Mayor
While I think this will be a fair bit closer then expected, I don’t believe that there is a significant chance Schinner is ejected. As has been noted by others, the surge by Sriranganathan will necessarily result in a split left vote and a reduced total to Tracy Price (even with encouraged preference flows), moreover, even if the greens win big in the inner city and west, there is no substantive ground campaign to carry them in the outer suburbs. I simply cannot see the greens pulling of a minimum of 14% swing across all of Brisbane, when they struggle to do that in their target electorates. Meanwhile, there seems to be no mood to eject the liberals and Price also does not seem to be running an inspiring campaign to capitalize if there was. Slight chance Sri leapfrogs labor is he surges and Tracy flops, though.
Wards
Labour – 7
– Deagon
– Wynnum Manly
– Mooroka
– Forest Lake
– Morningside
– Calamvale
– Northgate
Green -6
– Gabba
– Walter Taylor
– Paddington
– Coorparoo
– Central
– Enoggera
Liberal – 11
– Hamilton
– Chandler
– MacGregor
– McDowall
– Marchant
– Doboy
– Bracken Ridge
– Holland Park
– Jamboree
– Pullenvale
– The Gap
Ind – 1
– Tennyson
End Result – Hung Parliament decided by Nicole Johnson