ALP 4.6% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Peter Khalil, since 2016.
Geography
Northern Melbourne. Wills covers most of the City of Merri-bek, and north-western parts of the City of Yarra. Key suburbs include Brunswick, Carlton North, Coburg, Fitzroy North, Glenroy, Hadfield, Fawkner, Pascoe Vale and Princes Hill.
Redistribution
Wills shifted south, taking in Carlton North, Fitzroy North and Princes Hill. Wills then lost areas west of Pascoe Vale Road to Maribyrnong. These changes cut the Labor margin against the Greens from 8.6% to 4.6%.
History
Wills was created for the 1949 election as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. Apart from a period in the early 1990s, it has always been held by the Labor Party.
Wills was first won in 1949 by the ALP’s Bill Bryson. He had previously held the seat of Bourke from 1943 to 1946. Bryson served as a member of the ALP until the split of 1955, when he joined the new Labor Party (Anti-Communist), which became the Democratic Labor Party. He lost the seat at the 1955 election.
The seat was won in 1955 by the ALP’s Gordon Bryant. Bryant served as a minister in the Whitlam government from 1972 to 1975, and retired in 1980.
Wills was won in 1980 by former President of the ACTU, Bob Hawke. Hawke was in the rare position of a politician who was already a significant national figure in his own right before entering Parliament, and he was immediately appointed to the Labor frontbench. Hawke failed in an attempt to replace Bill Hayden as Labor leader in 1982, but was successful in another attempt on the very day that Malcolm Fraser called the 1983 election, and he won that election, becoming Prime Minister.
Hawke won re-election at the 1984, 1987 and 1990 elections, but in 1991 he was defeated in a caucus leadership ballot by Paul Keating, and he resigned from Parliament in 1992.
The 1992 Wills by-election was a remarkable campaign, with 22 candidates standing. The seat was won by former footballer Phil Cleary on a hard-left socialist platform. Cleary’s victory was overturned in the High Court due to his status as a public school teacher on unpaid leave, shortly before the 1993 election. He was re-elected at the 1993 election, and held the seat until his defeat in 1996.
Wills was won back for the ALP in 1996 by Kelvin Thomson, a Victorian state MP since 1988. Thomson was appointed to the Federal Labor shadow ministry in 1997, and remained on the frontbench until early 2007. Thomson retained his seat until his retirement in 2016.
Labor’s Peter Khalil won in 2016, and was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Assessment
Wills is a very marginal electorate and a key target for the Greens. The redistribution significantly improved the Greens position, and this will be one to watch.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Khalil | Labor | 35,449 | 38.9 | -5.4 | 36.4 |
| Sarah Jefford | Greens | 25,793 | 28.3 | +2.0 | 32.8 |
| Tom Wright | Liberal | 15,771 | 17.3 | -0.8 | 16.2 |
| Irene Zivkovic | United Australia | 3,352 | 3.7 | +0.5 | 3.3 |
| Emma Black | Victorian Socialists | 2,714 | 3.0 | -1.5 | 3.1 |
| Sue Bolton | Socialist Alliance | 3,096 | 3.4 | +3.4 | 2.9 |
| Jill Tindal | One Nation | 2,554 | 2.8 | +2.8 | 2.5 |
| Leah Horsfall | Animal Justice | 1,680 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 1.8 |
| Sam Sergi | Federation Party | 789 | 0.9 | +0.9 | 0.7 |
| Others | 0.4 | ||||
| Informal | 4,855 | 5.1 | +0.8 |
2022 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Khalil | Labor | 53,415 | 58.6 | +0.1 | 54.6 |
| Sarah Jefford | Greens | 37,783 | 41.4 | -0.1 | 45.4 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Peter Khalil | Labor | 69,104 | 75.8 | +0.1 | 77.1 |
| Tom Wright | Liberal | 22,094 | 24.2 | -0.1 | 22.9 |
Booths in Wills have been split into four parts: north-east, north-west, south, and Brunswick, which sits between the other three.
The Labor two-candidate-preferred vote varies enormously across the electorate. Labor won 59% in the north-east and 68.3% in the north-west. The Greens polled 54.5% in Brunswick and 66.5% in the south.
The Liberal Party came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8.3% in the south to 22.6% in the north-west.
| Voter group | LIB prim | ALP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Brunswick | 9.4 | 45.5 | 15,075 | 15.0 |
| North-East | 14.9 | 59.0 | 13,871 | 13.8 |
| North-West | 22.6 | 68.3 | 10,368 | 10.3 |
| South | 8.3 | 33.5 | 8,746 | 8.7 |
| Pre-poll | 18.2 | 57.3 | 30,486 | 30.4 |
| Other votes | 19.1 | 56.2 | 21,707 | 21.7 |
Election results in Wills at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Greens), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Labor, the Greens and the Liberal Party.
Anybody got the link to the Redbridge MRP? I can’t seem to find it.
@ Tommo9
Exactly, Peter Khalil will fit well in Maribyronong which is less ethnically diverse (mostly Italian Catholics), middle class nuclear families and a more centrist seat. This is not a personal insult to Khalil just like Nicole Flint would be better suited to Barker and Tony Abbott to Cook than Warringah. Wills is more socially progressive than it was when Bob Hawke, i am not sure someone like Bob Hawke today would fit Wills he would be better suited to Gorton or Gellibrand a more Aspirational/Centrist area. In 1999 both Maribyrong and Wills had the same % support for Republic on 2022 boundaries but today the Voice result was vastly different and Wills today had a Yes vote 5th in the Nation higher than more affluent areas such as Higgins, Macnamara and Wentworth. Peter Khalil is also quite Hawkish on China which will not be appreciated here. Even if he does survive Labor will probably waste resources in 2028 to hold on to it like they did with David Feeney in 2016 when those resources could have been used to win Forde or Petrie that election instead. Now labor does not need to waste resources in Cooper.
@patreon_57 April 17, 2025 at 7:31 pm
William Bowe posted it in Pollbludger so here it is
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tCqQq1ApwUXaRUaJVRFc3QNAdae3w-Sh/view
The poll seems dodgy. Greens 15% in Burt and Pearce and only 12% in Perth. I would have been too embarrassed to publish it.
The polling here is really confusing and quite inconsistent as @patreon_57 pointed out. It’s saying that Dobell is a Liberal gain? Yes they announced their candidate early and obviously have been campaigning but a lot of people seem to think Robertson is more at risk and McBride has a personal vote. Same with Brisbane, though I’d say Stephen Bates’ vote isn’t too strong.
Yet the same poll has Labor gaining Bass, the ejector seat that Bridget Archer was able to hang onto in 2022 even when the former MP was running against her. And even despite the controversy, Kooyong’s polling has it as a Liberal gain, and Chisholm where it seemed Labor was gaining back ground doesn’t seem to be eventuating.
Another inconsistency was the fact Wannon and Bradfield, which are being hyped as teal targets, that had the Coalition retaining 52-48 for Bradfield (I will say since Kapterian’s preselection the seat does seem to be in the Liberals’ favour) and 54-46 for Wannon. The crash in the Green vote in seats like Grayndler and Perth doesn’t add up considering the Greens have been running hard in Perth and the Liberal candidate isn’t taking the seat serious in Grayndler.
Redbridge polls this term have had a tendency to show extremely high votes for the Greens in outer suburbs and provincial cities and confusingly low in the inner city, a polling trend that has not been backed up at actual election results despite what Kos Samaras likes to claim. If the Greens vote was crashing by 10% in places like Wills, their vote would not be holding up nationwide. Rental stress is bad, but not *that* bad.
There’s a weird issue with Redbridge’s GRN vote in Brisbane vs inner Melbourne that’s for sure
Adam Bandt on Insiders was interesting. He refused to say ‘Labor is complicit in genocide’. Certainly not consistent with what the defaced Labor signage in this area is saying. Wonder what the Greens are saying at the door here.
The toned down message appears to be aimed more at Macnamara, and the Brisbane seats.
Legalise Cannabis are recommending preferences to Labor’s Peter Khalil [3rd on their HTV] over the Greens’ Samantha Ratnam [4th on their HTV], they’re doing the same thing in Cooper where they have Ged 2nd. Some sort of deal based on Senate preferences? The Greens as a party are much more pro-Cannabis legalization, surely this will mean a higher actual preference flow to them over Labor. But as I wrote in a previous comment these sort of inner-city Labor/Greens contests are new to Legalise Cannabis & I can’t find much to base my expectations on.
@Vandon maybe they oppose the radical/extreme stances taken by the Greens on other issues. Legalise Cannabis are a single-issue party which means they cannot succeed, especially given they’re a loosely connected group of candidates from the left and the right who are only united on their support for legalising recreational cannabis. Some members are progressive hippies while the others are conservative cookers. The Greens are just more socialist versions of the former while the others are just anti-establishment anti-vaxxers.
@Vandon: *The Greens as a party are much more pro-Cannabis legalization, surely this will mean a higher actual preference flow to them over Labor.*
The Greens are a bit like Pauline Hanson, they’ll latch onto an issue if it sounds like it might be a good fit for potential [clueless] voters. How serious are they?
Well, one of their Victorian Senators did a YouTube extolling the normalcy of a few cones after a hard day at the coal face, he was using a tomato bush as a prop.
@Nether Portal I would be more willing to agree with your contention on “extremism” if it wasn’t that Legalise Cannabis is recommending preferences to Socialist Alliance’s candidate Sue Bolton before Labor in Wills. Moreover anti-establishment cookers very much dislike Labor and may not distinguish them from the Greens & rest of the left. Legalise Cannabis are going forward with a very professional lead senate candidate & I think they’re making a pragmatic choice to try and build a working relationship with Labor even if it goes against their political values.
LCA preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens in all the Greens v Labor contests is a pretty clear indication of how they operate. Fiona Patten loved working with Labor to sideline the Greens in the Vic LC (and quite often Labor was happy to hand her a good policy win to do this). Besides, Labor will have a Senate surplus in most states and the Greens won’t.
It is of course directly in opposition to their one stated policy goal. Hopefully they just don’t have many people on the ground and their voters choose their own path – which is not uniformly pro Green either, but at least it’s honest.
It won’t make a difference. In the senate the only place I think the senate result will be differences is pocok finishing ahead of Gallagher in the act and maybe Hanson toppling Lambie in Tasmania. So the status quo will be largely maintained except for maybe another centre right senator. The senate will be easier for Labor to deal with as opposed to the libs. The libs will need the entire crossbench plus either faruqui or Thorpe (the harder option) whereas Labor will only 3 of the crossbench if they include the greens. However come 2028 the senate should shift back in the libs favour as they should regain another spot in wa and maybe qld and tas. In which they ca just deal with onp. And whatever senator vic throws up when babets term is up.
Sry that should of been fatima payman not faruqui. I got them confused
Fiona Patten at the Brunswick pre-poll booth yesterday, helping her Federal senate campaign in an area which elected her to State parliament & helping Labor through HTV preference recommendation. I will note that while I haven’t seen any corflutes for Legalise Cannabis/Fiona Patten there are a decent amount of paid ad posters along the major thoroughfares of Sydney Rd, Lygon St, & Nicholson St.
A Muslim Cleric has endorsed Samantha Ratnam and encouraged Muslims to vote for the Greens in Wills.
@Nimalan I think any Muslim who wanted to vote against Labor probably would’ve voted Greens/VS without any endorsements anyway. It’s going to be down to the wire this seat I reckon with whichever of Khalil or Ratnam winning the seat doing so by a squeak. Of course I could be wrong but that’s the feel that I’m getting.
@ Tommo9 it is interesting because much of the right wing commentary has been that Muslims will not vote Greens because they are socially progressive. A few days ago we discussed on the Bruce thread when someone suggested that the Libs could target Muslim voters by pointing out Julian Hill was a gay Athiest. Samantha Ratnam is non-religious so it shows that arguement is Rubbish. There will be a swing to Labor in the areas transferred from Melbourne but Certainly a swing away from Labor in the Muslim parts in the North of the seat.
In Regard to the Muslim vote in Wills, particularly in Fawkner. This was once traditional Labor heartland, and Labor could be expected to pick up the multi-ethnic vote, including the Muslim vote. Sue Bolton has represented this area on Council as a Socialist Alliance Candidate since 2012. In 2024 Council elections and first time single member ward election her primary vote was well over 43% and easily won on preferences, against a well resourced Muslim candidate. Why? Because Bolton had always supported justice for Palestine, moved the motion at Council to fly the Palestinian flag. But she is also engaged in ward meetings and in many local community campaigns. She has earned respect from a broad range of people. Her no 2 preferences go to Greens candidate Samantha Ratnam.
Muslim Votes Matter have endorsed Sam Ratnam. Sam is a Tamil immigrant from Sri Lanka.
Listen to Muslim cleric Alaa Elzokm OAM at a forum on 15 April. Peter Khalil was invited to this forum, but chose to attend a forum on Saving the Arts on at the same night. The cleric said…”Voting is a religous and moral duty… Changing and unseating Peter Khalil is sending a strong message to the Labor Party that we can make a change…. and we will reward those who have spoken out for justice.”
https://youtu.be/cgdJ8noAj1o?si=6aeLVNRsr1LinE-1&t=551
Muslim votes are at prepoll, but their major impact will be in Fawkner and other northern areas of the electorate on election day.
In the south of Wills, climate groups have leafletted, door knocked, held climate conversations. There are at least 2 climate policy scorecards rating the major parties by ACF and 350.org. Bob Brown Foundation also has a Wills environment scorecard. Vote Climate has a Wills and Senate how to Vote Climate guide. All these scorecards favour the Greens over Labor. How much do issue based score cards feed in to voter decision?
I am not sure how much people follow Legalise Cannabis and Fusion Party HTV cards for HoR. Both of these in Wills preference Labor above the Greens. Perhaps both are a result of Senate preference deals with Labor.
Wills will be interesting to watch on election night. and interesting watching what happens at individual polling booths around the electorate. There are different dynamics across the electorate.
I wonder if the blatant vandalism and apparent undemocratic actions of apparent Greens supporters both here and in the neighbouring safe Labor seat of Cooper will have an impact. Many Labor signs/corflutes/billboards have been vandalised with messages about Israel-Palestine and obviously Labor haven’t stooped to the level of vandalising their opponents advertising and corflutes.
We live in a democracy and we should be able to put signs up before an election. If the Greens want to get their message across they should not vandalise signs etc
@Adam, if Vandalised signs didn’t help Tim Wilson in Goldstein last election, it won’t help Khalil here. There was perhaps no better electorate than the former for anti-vandalism to be a political strength and Wilson even tried to campaign on it, to no avail. Quite frankly, given the messaging involved it may even be a positive for Ratnam; since it centres one of her stronger issues.
An article from Samantha Maiden has revealed from her sources the Greens are pulling resources out of Wills. And will move them into sandbagging Queensland.
I haven’t been able to find the article, so not sure what that exactly mean considering the Greens campaigns are run almost entirely by the State branches.
Also this late it wouldn’t matter anyways.
@patreon_57
It’s in this article here. I’m just going by the article. You sound quite defensive.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/leaked-labor-polling-exposes-15-seats-that-will-decide-the-federal-election-and-next-pm/news-story/1765ad2a7572a7ab50ac38c8207f3c0c
Greens pullout is pretty visible on the ground, they’re holding steady at Brunswick prepoll but the Socialists are starting to outnumber them as Greens dwindle off. Other prepoll spots Greens are nowhere to be seen for Ratnam, including at Broadmeadows where the last few days they’ve only spent a few hours a day there with one or two volunteers despite huge voting blocs from Muslim-heavy North Wills.
“An article from Samantha Maiden has revealed from her sources the Greens are pulling resources out of Wills. And will move them into sandbagging Queensland.”
The article didn’t mention Macnamara. To be honest, I thought for a long time that their main priority should be sandbagging their QLD seats, rather than picking up Wills.
Yea because “labor sources” know exactly where all the Greens resources are going. Completely delusional and it shows they dont understand anything about how the Greens run campaigns.
what does it actually mean to “divert resources” to sandbag other seats (in Brisbane)? It terms of volunteers, its not like they are travelling to Brisbane instead. Are they moving to Macnamara? Are they just apathetic so not showing up at all?
What a silly article. The full quote reveal the source of this BS 🙂
“The Greens are also pulling resources out of the Victorian Labor seat of Wills according to Labor where they are sandbagging three seats in Queensland.”
I’d suggest Greens volunteers in Vic will be staying at Wills and Macnmara and not going anywhere else.
@Will T yeah mate im sure the greens are pulling their volunteers out to move them to griffith and brisbane
The Greens are run as a loose federation of state branches that are not really co-ordinated at a national level to my understanding. If they’re “moving volunteers” it would have to be to Melbourne (obviously not flipping) or to Macnamara (fairly well staffed by both the Greens and Liberals to my understanding)
@Am Now if they aren’t pulling out of Wills, then they’re clearly just having a hard time staffing prepoll, which is not a great sign for the Greens either. If the Greens can’t organise vols for every prepoll, how are they going to organise enough for election day?
In terms of ‘resources’ – it might be money, online advertising, etc. Rather than people. After all, except for a few party professionals the rest of the people are volunteers.
I think this seat is probably lineball at this stage, with whoever the winner is winning by a squeak. Labor’s put up a big fight here against the Greens attack and the demographics might favour the Greens but Labor’s certainly not going to get smashed if they lose like they would’ve last year if the election was held back then. Peter Khalil’s certainly campaigning like he was in the fight for his life.
As I’ve observed, the new areas distributed in from Melbourne actually isn’t hard Greens as it was before as there’s a lot of old money, affluent households in Fitzroy and Carlton North which are less hip and more to the ‘classic’ side of a major city. Not an area which I’d expect the Greens to be full of it like Brunswick or Northcote.
Of course I’m still imagining Bob Hawke to be doing somersaults in his grave if Wills goes to the Greens.
@ Tommo9
Even if Pater Khalil does survive i think they should look at finding him another seat longer term or move him to the Senate. The Seat will only trend left as times goes. Peter Khalil is a War Hawk which is not a good look in a seat like this. The ideal Labor candiate for Wills should be someone who is non religious, maybe LGBT and someone who is proud to call themselves “Woke”.
Also too much resources has been wasted by Labor in Wills which could have been used to protect McEwen or Hawke.
@Tommo9 They should parachute someone like (or not really parachute given she lives in Brunswick) Lily D’Ambrosio here in the future. She’s from the left faction and has a high profile. Can’t really think of a left wing firebrand who’d fit in this seat. Andrews perhaps? (just kidding of course but still)
@Nimalan sorry I just realised I tagged myself haha.
But the point still stands. Maybe they could shift Ged Kearney over? Cooper’s about as safe as it gets in Melbourne when it comes to Labor vs Green contests so they can find someone else to fit into that seat and still retain it.
@ Tommo9 This seat is Ultra left not Tealish. Last time Vote Compass said it was the most leftwing seat in the country. Ged Kearney is perfect for Cooper she is both socially progressive and economically left wing Peter Khalil is not really the first part but is certainly the second part. Once upon a time Wills was more DLP territory Catholic and working class every election it becomes less like that.
@Nimalan I acknowledge that and certainly I see Coburg, Pascoe Vale and beyond falling more and more left wing as we go along, probably not Brunswick level left wing but getting there. What I was referring to was that having been to Fitzroy North and passed through Carlton North during a recent trip to Melbourne, there was a fairly even split between ALP and Green corflutes in that area which suggests to me that Labor and Greens are fighting tooth and nail to win and retain these areas. There was also a lot of fairly affluent and established housing in those areas and it’s much closer to the CBD, as well as being more commercialised than the likes of Sydney Street which looks like it hasn’t been cleaned in 20 years with the way the buildings look dilapidated.
@Tommo9
You are correct. Once upon a time this area had a large Italian community who were working class but socially conservative. Over time it being more Secular. I agree Fizroy North/Carlton North are more owner occupiers less renters, quiter suburbs.
Nimalan, can you link that Vote Compass seat alignment please?
I think part of the reason Cooper is safe for Labor vs Greens is actually because of Ged Kearney. She’s a perfect fit for a left-wing inner north seat.
If Ged was in Wills and Peter Khalil was in Cooper, we’d possibly be having the reverse conversation – although not to the same extent as I do acknowledge Wills is more hard-left than Cooper, mostly because Brunswick is probably the most left-wing suburb in Australia.
Could Ged Kearney get an important ministerial post in the next government to further manage the threat of the Greens? I mean if you are a left-wing voter who is voting more for Ged than Labor surely the lack of left-wing policy from the Labor party in government is going to start hurting her personal credibility as a useful local member.
Wills was the most left wing seat on vote compass in 2022 i am still waiting for the 2025 result. BTW i actually participated in vote compas this time and have done so for last few elecitons. Trent is totally correct Ged Kearney is socially progressive but her union background means she is economically leftwing as well. Peter Khalil comes across as some kind of Macho guy/ a bit like Dutton his focus on national security AUKUS is not a good look. Wills/Cooper are different to Macnamara where you have many fiscal conservatives so it is somewhat more Tealish. St Kilda-Windsor are Ultra Left but it also has Elite Private Schools, Manions and penthouses which is something that the inner north lacks.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-19/which-electorates-are-most-left-and-right-leaning-vote-compass/101078018
*mansions
Peter Khalil comes across as being similar kind of politician to Kevin Rudd or Andrew Charlton – economically centrist/conservative with a strong focus on foreign policy.
I agree @Trent, Ged Kearney is a perfect fit for her seat, an economic and social progressive with a union background. I believe she’s built up a strong personal vote, similar to Jonty Bush in my QLD state seat of Cooper. The Greens won’t be a threat to Cooper (VIC) until Ged Kearney retires.
@ AA
Wills is not a centrist i am not being personally direspectful to Peter Khalil but move him to Maribriyong which a more middle class, less diverse centrist seat. Wills is ultra left it is a seat where people like to Step on the US flag etc , oppose Australia Day, the monarchy etc. I dont think someone like Kevin Rudd today will fit well in Griffith today Kevin Rudd fits better in Oxley or Rankin. Parramatta is a centrist seat but Wills is cetainly not.
Yes I agree completely with you, with all due respect to Peter Khalil, he’s not the right fit for Wills. Wills is certainly not a centrist electorate, whereas he is. I’ve seen his social media lately and he’s trying to sound progressive and speak about social policy, but it feels really forced. I agree that Kevin Rudd wouldn’t really fit in Griffith today as well.