ALP 9.8%
Incumbent MP
Mike Freelander, since 2016.
Geography
Macarthur covers most of the City of Campbelltown (except for Macquarie Fields and Glenfield) and small parts of the Camden and Liverpool council area. The key suburbs are Campbelltown, Minto, Leumeah, St Andrews, Raby, Bradbury, Ambarvale and Rosemeadow.
Redistribution
Macarthur lost Harrington Park, Leppington, Oran Park and Rossmore to Hume and lost Ingleburn to Hughes. Macarthur gained part of Bardia and the Crossroads from Werriwa. These changes increased the Labor margin from 8.5% to 9.8%.
History
Macarthur was first created at the 1949 election, and has moved around southwestern Sydney, the southern highlands and the Illawarra over the last sixty years. The seat was a bellwether seat from 1949 until 2007, when the Liberals managed to hold on to the seat.
The seat was held from 1949 until 1972 by Jeff Bate of the Liberal Party, who became an independent in 1972 after losing preselection, before losing to the ALP’s John Kerin. Kerin held the seat until 1975. He later won the neighbouring seat of Werriwa in a 1978 by-election following the retirement of Gough Whitlam and served as a minister in the Hawke government, including a brief term as Treasurer following Paul Keating’s move to the backbench.
Michael Baume won the seat for the Liberal Party in 1975 and held the seat until the 1983 election, when he too was defeated. Baume returned to politics as a Senator following the 1984 election. He was defeated in 1983 by the ALP’s Colin Hollis, who transferred to the Illawarra seat of Throsby in 1984 following the expansion of the House of Representatives.
Hollis was succeeded in 1984 by Stephen Martin, who transferred to the seat of Cunningham in 1993 following a redistribution which presumably shifted Macarthur out of the Illawarra, which is now covered by Cunningham and Throsby. Martin went on to serve as Speaker during the final term of the Keating government and his 2002 retirement triggered the Cunningham by-election, which was won by the Greens. Chris Haviland held the seat for one term before he was defeated for Labor preselection in 1996 and retirement.
The new Labor candidate was defeated by former Liberal premier John Fahey, who had previously been the state member for Southern Highlands before his government was defeated in 1995. Fahey served as Finance Minister in the first two terms of the Howard government.
A 2001 redistribution saw Macarthur move out of the Southern Highlands and take in parts of southern Campbelltown, which had previously been included in Werriwa. This gave the ALP a notional majority in the seat, and the party nominated recurrent Mayor of Campbelltown Meg Oates. Fahey originally planned to transfer to the seat of Hume, which now covered his heartland territory around Bowral and Moss Vale, although he eventually retired at the 2001 election due to health problems.
The Liberal Party eventually preselected ultramarathon runner and charity fundraiser Pat Farmer, a personal favourite of John Howard, and he managed to win the seat with a swing to the Liberal Party. The 2004 election saw Farmer solidify his hold on the seat, holding the seat with a 9.5% margin.
Despite his margin increasing to over 11% thanks to a favourable redistribution, Pat Farmer barely held on in 2007.
The redistribution prior to the 2010 election made Macarthur a notional Labor seat. Farmer was defeated for Liberal preselection by former Campbelltown mayor Russell Matheson, who went on to retain the seat for the Liberal Party. Matheson was re-elected in 2013.
Another redistribution brought Macarthur into more Labor-friendly territory in 2016, and Matheson lost to Labor candidate Mike Freelander. Freelander was re-elected in 2019 and 2022.
Assessment
Macarthur is a reasonably safe Labor seat, although some polling has suggested the seat could be in play.
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Mike Freelander | Labor | 51,001 | 45.9 | -1.9 | 46.9 |
Binod Paudel | Liberal | 33,867 | 30.5 | -0.4 | 29.3 |
Adam Zahra | One Nation | 8,876 | 8.0 | -0.6 | 8.0 |
Jayden Rivera | Greens | 8,584 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 7.8 |
Rosa Sicari | United Australia | 6,602 | 5.9 | +3.4 | 5.9 |
Scott Korman | Liberal Democrats | 2,197 | 2.0 | +2.0 | 2.2 |
Informal | 8,646 | 7.2 | -1.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
Mike Freelander | Labor | 65,039 | 58.5 | +0.1 | 59.8 |
Binod Paudel | Liberal | 46,088 | 41.5 | -0.1 | 40.2 |
Booths in Macarthur have been divided into four groups: central, north-east, north-west and south. Three of these areas are contained entirely in the City of Campbelltown, while the north-west covers booths in three different council areas.
The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, with just 53.7% in the north-west and a vote ranging from 62.5% in the south to 65.1% in the centre.
Voter group | ON prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
South | 8.8 | 62.5 | 12,885 | 14.9 |
North-East | 8.3 | 64.1 | 12,430 | 14.4 |
Central | 8.5 | 65.1 | 11,835 | 13.7 |
North-West | 7.6 | 53.7 | 9,488 | 11.0 |
Pre-poll | 7.2 | 57.6 | 28,355 | 32.8 |
Other votes | 8.3 | 57.0 | 11,506 | 13.3 |
Election results in Macarthur at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
Also MacArthur is now a whopping 20% over quota
@Tommo9, none of Macarthur was a part of the former Hume.
The Denham Court booth you mentioned is semi-rural surrounded by houses on very large blocks of land. There was a big swing to Labor, possibly because of new housing estate residents going to that booth.
@Tommo9 – the Denham Court booth (Denham Court Anglican Church) is in an area with a lot of large blocks of land and more detached home. Definitely more of a rural vibe than an outer-suburban vibe you get with Macarthur. Agree with you on the Camden PPVC, Camden itself is quite conservative and no surprise the Liberals would have won it, combined with the Angus Taylor factor as you’ve mentioned.
You do make a good point about the opposing swings in areas transferred during the redistribution: Angus had swings to him in Oran Park and Harrington Park which were subjected to Mike Freelander’s personal vote. I outlined my reasons why I think Hume swung to the Liberals in the Hume thread, I’m not a Hume resident but I do travel there regularly and did see a few aspects of the campaign there.