Incumbent MPs
- Shane Broad (Labor), since 2017.
- Anita Dow (Labor), since 2018.
- Felix Ellis (Liberal), since 2021. Previously 2020–2021.1
- Roger Jaensch (Liberal), since 2014.
- Jeremy Rockliff (Liberal), since 2002.
1Ellis filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Adam Brooks in May 2021.
Geography
Braddon covers the West Coast and North-West of Tasmania, including the islands to Tasmania’s northwest. The seat covers West Coast, Burnie, Central Coast, Circular Head, Latrobe, Devonport and Waratah/Wynyard councils. The seat’s largest centres are the towns of Devonport and Burnie.
History
Braddon was first created for the 1956 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Braddon. This replaced the seat of Darwin, which had previously covered northwestern Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.
The ALP won four seats and the Anti-Socialists two in Darwin at the 1909 election. The ALP and Liberals divided the seats equally 3-3 at the 1912 and 1913 elections. The Liberals lost one of their three seats in 1916 and 1919, and in 1922 the Liberals were reduced to one seat, with the Country Party winning two.
From 1925 to 1955 the ALP and the Nationalist/Liberal parties split the seats in Darwin 3-3 with two exceptions. The Nationalists won a 4-2 majority in 1931 and the ALP won a 4-2 majority in 1941. A 3-3 split was repeated in the new seat of Braddon in 1956.
The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959 and 1964 after Braddon gained a seventh seat. The Liberals lost one of their three seats to an independent in 1969, and that seat went to the ALP in 1972, giving them a 5-2 majority. The ALP again won 4-3 majorities in 1976 and 1979, and the Liberals gained 4-3 majorities in 1982 and 1986.
The ALP lost one of their three seats to Green independent Di Hollister in 1989, while the Liberals maintained their four seats. The Liberals gained a 5-1-1 majority in 1992, and reverted to a 4-2-1 majority in 1996.
The Liberal vote collapsed in 1998 when Braddon’s seats were cut to five, and the Liberals lost two of their seats, as did Greens MP Di Hollister. The ALP gained a third seat, for a 3-2 split. This result was maintained in 2002, 2006 and 2010. It was the only seat at the 2002 and 2006 elections where the Greens failed to elect an MP.
In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Greens. Two Labor sitting MPs were re-elected, while Steve Kons retired and his seat was won by the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran. On the Liberal side, Jeremy Rockliff was re-elected, while sitting Liberal MP Brett Whiteley was narrowly defeated by fellow Liberal Adam Brooks.
There was a 13% swing to the Liberal Party in 2014, while Labor lost 17% and the Greens lost 6%. 7% of the electorate voted for the Palmer United Party (at the time represented in the Senate by Jacqui Lambie). The Greens lost their sole seat, while Labor also lost one of their two seats. The Liberal Party doubled their representation from two to four.
The Liberal Party lost one of their four seats in 2018, with Labor regaining their second seat. This result was repeated in 2021, with the Liberal Party winning three seats to Labor’s two.
- Jacqui Lambie Network
- Labor
- Shane Broad*
- Amanda Diprose
- Anita Dow*
- Sam Facey
- Danielle Kidd
- Adrian Luke
- Chris Lynch
- Liberal
- Greens
- Darren Briggs
- Sarah Kersey
- Leeya Lovell
- Michael McLoughlin
- Erin Morrow
- Susanne Ward
- Petra Wilden
- Animal Justice
- Julia M King
- Shooters, Fishers & Farmers
- Brenton Jones
- Dale Marshall
- Kim Swanson
- Independent
- Ungrouped
- Gatty Burnett
- Andrea Courtney
- Peter Freshney
- Liz Hamer
Assessment
Braddon is one of the Liberal Party’s strongest electorates in Tasmania. With the increase in magnitude, the Liberal Party would be expected to win a fourth seat with an outside chance of a fifth. Labor’s second seat is solidified, but they are some distance from winning a third seat.
Candidate | Votes | % | Quota | New quota | Swing |
Jeremy Rockliff | 19,186 | 27.4 | 1.6453 | ||
Felix Ellis | 6,229 | 8.9 | 0.5342 | ||
Adam Brooks | 6,202 | 8.9 | 0.5319 | ||
Roger Jaensch | 4,833 | 6.9 | 0.4145 | ||
Lara Hendriks | 1,856 | 2.7 | 0.1592 | ||
Stacey Sheehan | 1,708 | 2.4 | 0.1465 | ||
Liberal Party | 40,014 | 57.2 | 3.4314 | 4.5751 | +0.8 |
Shane Broad | 6,034 | 8.6 | 0.5175 | ||
Anita Dow | 5,640 | 8.1 | 0.4837 | ||
Justine Keay | 4,132 | 5.9 | 0.3543 | ||
Michelle Rippon | 1,454 | 2.1 | 0.1247 | ||
Amanda Diprose | 1,300 | 1.9 | 0.1115 | ||
Australian Labor Party | 18,560 | 26.5 | 1.5916 | 2.1221 | -0.6 |
Darren Briggs | 1,853 | 2.6 | 0.1589 | ||
Tammy Milne | 670 | 1.0 | 0.0575 | ||
Emily Murray | 584 | 0.8 | 0.0501 | ||
Phill Parsons | 403 | 0.6 | 0.0346 | ||
Maureen Corbett | 372 | 0.5 | 0.0319 | ||
Tasmanian Greens | 3,882 | 5.5 | 0.3329 | 0.4439 | +2.2 |
Brenton Jones | 1,648 | 2.4 | 0.1413 | ||
Kim Swanson | 990 | 1.4 | 0.0849 | ||
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 2,638 | 3.8 | 0.2262 | 0.3016 | +1.3 |
Craig Garland | 4,236 | 6.1 | 0.3633 | ||
Liz Hamer | 337 | 0.5 | 0.0289 | ||
Matthew Morgan | 294 | 0.4 | 0.0252 | ||
Total Others | 4,867 | 7.0 | 0.4174 | 0.5565 | +3.0 |
Informal | 3,963 | 5.4 | 0.0000 |
Preference flows
Only one candidate, the Liberal Party’s Jeremy Rockliff, was elected on primary votes.
Let’s fast forward until there were ten candidates competing for the final four seats. This included the four other Liberals, three Labor candidates, independent candidate Craig Garland and one each from the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers:
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- Adam Brooks (LIB) – 0.763 quotas
- Felix Ellis (LIB) – 0.686
- Roger Jaensch (LIB) – 0.663
- Shane Broad (ALP) – 0.596
- Anita Dow (ALP) – 0.570
- Justine Keay (ALP) – 0.455
- Craig Garland (IND) – 0.412
- Lara Hendriks (LIB) – 0.313
- Darren Briggs (GRN) – 0.308
- Brenton Jones (SFF) – 0.228
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Garland did relatively well from Shooters preferences, and otherwise they scattered amongst the major party candidates:
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- Brooks (LIB) – 0.795
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.706
- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.676
- Broad (ALP) – 0.625
- Dow (ALP) – 0.591
- Keay (ALP) – 0.481
- Garland (IND) – 0.475
- Hendriks (LIB) – 0.327
- Briggs (GRN) – 0.316
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Greens preferences flowed most strongly to Garland and then the three Labor candidates:
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- Brooks (LIB) – 0.802
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.716
- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.685
- Broad (ALP) – 0.659
- Dow (ALP) – 0.635
- Garland (IND) – 0.564
- Keay (ALP) – 0.527
- Hendriks (LIB) – 0.335
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Hendriks’ preferences unsurprisingly split fairly evenly between the three remaining Liberals, but did push Jaensch ahead of Ellis:
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- Brooks (LIB) – 0.860
- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.831
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.814
- Broad (ALP) – 0.666
- Dow (ALP) – 0.642
- Garland (IND) – 0.568
- Keay (ALP) – 0.535
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Keay’s preferences pushed both Labor candidates into the lead with Dow doing particularly well:
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- Dow (ALP) – 0.913
- Broad (ALP) – 0.874
- Brooks (LIB) – 0.873
- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.839
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.825
- Garland (IND) – 0.580
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Garland’s preferences elected Dow and otherwise favoured the other candidates evenly:
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- Dow (ALP) – 1.084
- Broad (ALP) – 0.996
- Brooks (LIB) – 0.921
- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.907
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.884
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Dow’s surplus then elected Broad:
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- Broad (ALP) – 1.063
- Brooks (LIB) – 0.923
- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.911
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.887
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And then Broad’s preferences favoured Jaensch and Ellis over Broad, but Ellis was too far behind to win:
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- Jaensch (LIB) – 0.934
- Brooks (LIB) – 0.931
- Ellis (LIB) – 0.904
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Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in the Circular Head, Waratah/Wynyard and West Coast LGAs were divided into North West and South West. Polling places in Devonport and Latrobe council areas have been grouped into one group. Polling places in Burnie and Central Coast council areas have been grouped together separately.
Booths on King Island have been grouped together, with those in the sparsely populated west of the electorate’s mainland split between North West and South West.
The Liberal Party topped the poll in every area, with a vote ranging from 49.4% in Burnie to 62.3% on King Island.
The Labor vote ranged from 20.5% in the north-west to 32.5% in Burnie.
Voter group | LIB % | ALP % | GRN % | Total votes | % of votes |
Devonport-Latrobe | 59.9 | 27.2 | 5.4 | 16,121 | 23.0 |
Central Coast | 59.2 | 25.8 | 6.2 | 11,793 | 16.9 |
North-West | 54.1 | 20.5 | 4.4 | 9,261 | 13.2 |
Burnie | 49.4 | 32.5 | 5.0 | 8,098 | 11.6 |
South-West | 52.5 | 27.5 | 5.8 | 1,818 | 2.6 |
King Island | 62.3 | 21.7 | 4.9 | 771 | 1.1 |
Pre-poll | 59.3 | 26.6 | 5.5 | 15,608 | 22.3 |
Other votes | 56.8 | 27.5 | 7.3 | 6,491 | 9.3 |
Election results in Braddon at the 2021 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor Party.
@tommo and thats your opinion i say they were there to protest the result they didnt believe was fair.
@yoh an in what way was it an illegal act? they have a right to protest and to stop a result they dont believe was fair.
the reason they backed away from the one against Gillard because the crossbench was reasonable and wasnt determined to oust a premier they disagreed with. and so im clear i never supported abbott trying to oust the govt that way either and dont believe there is any justified reason for labor to do now. the reason why labor couldnt form government was because labor and the greens hated each other so much at the time there was no possibility of forming any sort of governemnt.
John, the ‘illegal’ act part of Jan 6 was when protesters entered the secure areas of the Capitol and caused property damage. The protest component was legal however, and only those who committed illegal acts by willfully damaging property should be charged.
@John Last time I checked trying to breach the Capitol building, bringing in guns and hurting Capitol police constitutes multiple federal offences, and trying to kill congressman/woman and senators definitely constitutes as crimes and thus illegal. It wasn’t a legitimate protest, it was a coup.
Any comparison of that to this is a fallacy.
Also, the way it works is that only the MP’s or members of Congress have the right to challenge a result. Ordinary citizens do not have that power, so anyone who doesn’t agree with the recent results (like Bradfield or Goldstein) will need to pressure their candidate to challenge the result on their behalf.
@yoh yes but that wasnt the aim of the protest it was the actions of a few.
@tommo that was only a few troublemakers not the aim of the protest. it wasnt a coup or even an atempted coup becuse they achieved nothing and they would never have been able to overthrow the government.
they still have the right to protest agisnt the result if they dont agree with it.
I’m not going to waste anytime debating someone who thinks it’s good to justify an attempted coup where there were violence and casualties resulting from that and conflating that with a perfectly legal no confidence motion in our parliament. It’s just absolutely unbelievable that anyone thinks that’s even remotely reasonable.
Turning back to the state of the Tasmanian parliament, the government looks set to return on Tuesday to pass supply bills but then there’ll be an election. Earliest is July 19 according to Kevin Bonham.
@tommo you cant reasonably think they thought they had any chance of overturning that result? i in no way think the violence was justified. just their right to protest a result they did not agree with. and did not compare them as the same. i simply stated that the no confidence motion is firvilous and an abuse. if state debt is a reason to overthrow an elected government using legal means then every state govt in the country bar QLD and WA should be going back to the polls. especially in victoria. they hould be honest and say they believe they can win an election based off the federal results at this point in the electoral cycle. as someone who has been sacked from their job for baseless and false reasons by those in power using the legal system simply because they can i dont agree with this.
Yoh An I’m sure I’ve seen it said somewhere that any resident of Bradfield could challenge the results, is that not true?
John, if your takeaway from being sacked unjustly is that elected governments shouldn’t be held accountable, then you’ve missed the entire point of democracy.
@real talk governments are held accountable theyre called elections. not using the legal system to your advantage just because you think you can abuse the democratic system
Show me where anyone in Tasmania has broken or abused the democratic system in the last week.
@John abusing the democratic system means deliberately overrunning a government by force or completing a coup d’etat illegally. It isn’t abuse to move a no confidence motion given it is perfectly legitimate and was tabled legally. If the Liberals were really good at governing the crossbench would’ve sided with them and voted down the motion. The fact that there were enough crossbenchers who supported it probably explains the result itself.
By the same token the Victorian Liberals shouldn’t have moved no confidence in 2020 during the lockdown knowing full well that they couldn’t get it past Labor’s supermajority, yet they did it anyway. I haven’t seen any criticisms of that. You can’t say that something like that was perfectly fine but Labor moving it two days ago wasn’t.
literally yesterday
well good luck to the independents on getting reelected especially Jenner
John this is idiotic.
It is the ability to remove a government that doesn’t have majority support that makes our system what it is. Presidential systems require a high bar to impeach Parliamentary systems require no bar at all. If you lose majority support you’re toast.
We knew from day one that this government was fragile. Ever since Kristie Johnston said she lacked confidence in the government in March it was basically just a question of when Labor would act to topple the government. If they don’t want to be vulnerable they either need to win a majority or form a more stable partnership. If they can’t, the solution is a fresh election.
I think regardless of the outcome of the election the Liberals will get the most votes and thus the most seats in Braddon.
Interesting if any unsuccessful Federal independent candidates will stand at the Tasmania election. Without JLN running, there’s a fair few votes to pick up. Some possibilities, noting Craig Garland was elected with 5.1%…
– Braddon: Adam Martin (8.3%)
– Bass: George Razay (5.4%)
– Franklin: Peter George (21.7%), Brendan Blomeley (5.0%)
Would also expect some unsuccessful Liberal candidates to drop down if any vacancies open up.
Anticipating a small swing to Labor, my prediction is ALP 12, LIB 12, GRN 6, IND 5 (Garland, Johnson, Razay, George, O’Byrne)
Blast, considering the outcome you indicated then a minority Labor government propped up by the Greens is likely to be the result. The Greens are unlikely to work with the Liberals and that would be true for some of the left leaning independents (George and Garland),
I’m pretty Palpatine used a vote of no confidence to overthrow the Chancellor to take control of the Senate and rule through force and basically usurp democracy using a prefectly legal means.
Rockliff is better to just say fuck it let him form a govt on current parliament with the greens and inds I wonder how long that will last
Idk if I’m hallucinating or if I’m seeing someone say that a motion of no confidence is a legalised way to destroy democracy because of Star Wars.
John, your bias towards the coalition is completely clouding your judgement. Even the other coalition supporters here understand that this situation is just a normal function of Australia’s parliamentary democracy. Admit it though, you’d think this situation would be ok if it were the Liberals ousting Labor. We’ve all seen enough of your comments to guess that.