Kooyong – Australia 2025

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Monique Ryan will hold here, there is a large university population so her campaigning to decrease hex debt will certainly cut through.

  2. I wonder if the current anti semitism may play into the Libs hands here. Parts of the new Kooyong have quite substantial Jewish populations and Peter Dutton might be seen by the Jewish community as a safer and more resolute pair of hands. Not that Monique Ryan has done anything to offend but the Lib seen as safer. Could be a factor in Bradfield as well.

  3. Monique Ryan largely votes with Labor in the House, so that alone will be sufficient to not vote for her in the eyes of many Jewish electors fed up with Labor’s lack of action on combating anti-Semitism.

    She has the advantage of incumbency with its resources but the increased cost of living is adversely affecting voters, and Labor is perceived as the entity to blame. Given Ms Ryan is so supportive of Labor in the Parliament, it may convince quite a few to instead vote Liberal this time around.

    It helps that the Liberal Party has preselected a well qualified, relatively young candidate who knows her stuff.

  4. Whilst there is a sizable Jewish population, it’s not as big as Macnamara’s or Goldstein’s. In Kooyong, there may be a form of protest vote against Labor rather than an endorsement of Dutton to curb antisemitism, including by activists and neo-Nazis or whomever.

    Josh Frydenberg’s personal vote might have inflated the post-redistribution Liberal vote. There was a cohort who voted for him specifically for him, rather than the party, or because they saw him as a potential future Liberal leader. I’m not sure if Monique Ryan is personally popular and has gained the electorate’s trust but it remains to be seen.

  5. For a teal like Ryan, you do get the sense that voters perceive her as someone who would prefer to support a Labor minority government than a Liberal one, and that will weigh on voters who aren’t happy with Labor. Yes people are voting for their local member and being independent serves Ryan well electorally but given the broad expectation and media narrative around a minority government voters will be aware that their local member may well become a kingmaker.

  6. Kooyong and Goldstein actually didn’t have a large Labor swing within the Lib vs Lab TPP in 2022 (2-3% compare to 4.5+% for similar electorates) I wonder Ryan and Daniel not providing how to vote preferences played a role?

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