ALP 13.0%
Incumbent MP
Jason Clare, since 2007.
Geography
South-western Sydney. Blaxland covers a majority of the Cumberland council area, the north-western corner of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area, and small parts of the Fairfield and Parramatta council areas. Major suburbs include Auburn, Birrong, Chester Hill, Granville, Guildford, Merrylands and Sefton.
Redistribution
Blaxland changed significantly, shifting north. Blaxland lost Bankstown, Condell Park, Georges Hall and Yagoona to Watson, and also lost Milperra to Banks. Blaxland picked up Guildford West, Merrylands West, Woodpark, Yennora, Old Guildford and the remainder of Guildford from McMahon, also picked up Granville, Granville South, Holroyd, Merrylands and South Wentworthville from Parramatta, and finally picked up Rookwood Cemetery and part of Lidcombe from Watson. These changes slightly reduced the Labor margin from 14.9% to 13.0%.
History
Blaxland is a safe Labor seat, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1949.
Blaxland was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate James Harrison. Harrison defeated former NSW Labor premier Jack Lang, who had won the seat of Reid as an independent in 1946.
Harrison held Blaxland as a Labor backbencher for twenty years, retiring in 1969. He was succeeded by 25-year-old Paul Keating. Keating quickly rose through the ranks of the ALP, joining Gough Whitlam’s ministry in 1975. Keating went on to serve as Treasurer in the Hawke government and after a period of turmoil was elected Labor leader in 1991, becoming Prime Minister.
Keating was re-elected as Prime Minister at the 1993 election, but lost the 1996 election. Following his defeat he resigned as Member for Blaxland.
The ensuing by-election was won by Labor candidate Michael Hatton. Hatton held the seat for the entirety of the Howard government, but was challenged for preselection in 2007 to Jason Clare, a former advisor to NSW Premier Bob Carr, who had the support of the NSW Labor Party executive, and Clare won the seat at the 2007 election. Clare has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Blaxland is a typical safe Labor seat, but Jason Clare is being challenged by a prominent local independent councillor. The seat has been identified as a key target for a campaign to move Muslim voters away from the ALP, in part over the war in Gaza. This seat will be a test of that campaign’s effectiveness. It would be foolish to predict what will happen, but this area doesn’t have a strong history of voting for independents.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Clare | Labor | 44,905 | 55.0 | -2.8 | 51.5 |
| Oz Guney | Liberal | 22,059 | 27.0 | -1.8 | 27.2 |
| Elvis Sinosic | United Australia | 5,105 | 6.3 | +3.4 | 7.3 |
| Linda Eisler | Greens | 5,187 | 6.4 | +1.0 | 6.8 |
| Adam Stepanoff | One Nation | 4,421 | 5.4 | +5.4 | 4.4 |
| Others | 2.7 | ||||
| Informal | 9,884 | 10.8 | -2.5 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| Jason Clare | Labor | 53,039 | 64.9 | +0.2 | 63.0 |
| Oz Guney | Liberal | 28,638 | 35.1 | -0.2 | 37.0 |
Polling places in Blaxland have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.9% in the north-west to 68.3% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 58.9 | 18,267 | 21.9 |
| North-East | 68.3 | 14,427 | 17.3 |
| South | 67.4 | 10,574 | 12.7 |
| Pre-poll | 63.6 | 24,518 | 29.4 |
| Other votes | 59.0 | 15,553 | 18.7 |
Election results in Blaxland at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal Party.
They will never win the libs will not preference them. They would do better to get some neutral candidates who aren’t as controversial. Then they might get libs on board
Did Ahmed Ouf make the 2CP in the end with distribution of preferences. I have looked at ABC Computer and AEC but they are showing a ALP/LIB flow.
@Nimalan looks like the Liberals made it into the 2PP/2CP count in the final distribution and Ouf’s preferences pushed Jason Clare’s margin beyond 20%, probably the best showing in the seat for a while.
So much for the MVM and Muslim independent push, all of it ended in a whimper.
@ Tommo9
Yes it seems that Gaza conflict has actually helped Labor TPP versus Libs . In Calwell there was actually a swing to Labor notionally versus Libs, Despite Carly Moore and Joseph Youhana preferencing Libs. What i think has happened is that the UAP support among Muslims collapsed and these voters went to MVM, Greens or Victorian Socialists and then preferenced Labor ahead of Libs. I think UAP did well among Muslims in 2022 due to lockdowns but now Muslims dont care about that. Unlike ONP, Palmer does not really have a bad repuation among Muslims.
I don’t think he did even though it was very close.
Now Albanese is about to recognise Palestine as a UN member so I wonder what will happen to in votes in Muslim heavy seats like Blaxland and Jewish heavy seats like Wentworth?
@ Marh
I really interested in the impact on State election in Victoria.
Bentleigh has a large Jewish community while Greenvale has a large Muslim they could swing in opposite direction.
Amongst seats such as Blaxland and Watson this if anything should improve the alp vote. I suspect Wentworth would
Improve slightly for the libs but not enough to balance the overall left tinge of the seat…Ms Spender will remain the mp for the foreseeable future… unless the seat were divided into 2 with the recreation of margin Phillip.
If this year’s election hadn’t happened yet it would’ve been interesting for Goldstein and Macnamara. I think Wentworth is relatively safe for Allegra Spender.
@ Votante
In Godstein i think the Jewish swing delivered the seat to Tim Wilson. Wentworth is safe for now for Allegra Spender until expansion of parliament which is why Liberals want to keep her there and prevent Labor from winning it. The current Kooyong has a Jewish community in its Southern parts and so does Bradfield arount St Ives. Kingsford Smith has a Jewish community but it too safe forLabor and the community is not big enough to have an impact
Initially back in 2022, I thought Muslim Australians were gradually become more Right-Wing voting such as more going to vote for the Liberal Party (or certain RW Parties like Libertarian Party or UAP) as Right-Wing Politics become less hostile to Muslim Immigrant in addition to the anti-lockdown/anti-vax movement but the Gaza War and Right-Wingers moving back to anti-immigration as covid is no longer an issue meant it cancelled all the right-wing inroads made.
Marh, I think the anti vax/lockdown movement during the Covid period only worked well with the Muslim ethnic minority voters because many of them worked in ‘critical’, public facing roles like those manufacturing and transportation sectors that provided limited opportunity for remote working. As a result, they felt that they were ‘scapegoated’ and not being taken care of compared to others.
This is different compared to those usual right-wing voters (many of which are ethnically white and not from CALD minority backgrounds), who are ‘libertarian’ minded and critical of government measures like vaccine and mask mandates.
@marh
I have heard some liberal members before October 7th who I know personally who wanted to reach out to Muslims to offset loss of affluent voters. I suspect Greenvale will swing back to Labor at a state level. geopolitically the Muslim world is hostile to the West so I don’t think Muslims can be brought under a unified Abrahamic identity. yoh an is correct Muslims often work as baggage handlers bus drivers etc so could not really work remotely
Today, another March for Australia took place. Increasingly, the atmosphere reminds me of the 2005–2006 period following the Cronulla riots. In that aftermath, there was a surge in nationalism, and Southern Cross tattoos became more popular. It seems the organizers are drawing inspiration from the “Raise the Colours” protests currently happening in the UK.
Blaxland is the most linguistically diverse electorate in the country, and until recently, it was considered a potential realignment seat for the Liberal Party to target in place of the Teal seats. At today’s March for Australia protest, one speaker called for a ban on the burqa and the deportation of Gaza refugees. I don’t believe society is moving toward a post-racial future. Steve Christou attended the protest once again.
Steve Christou appears to be like Mark Latham, with both being ex Labor members who defected and joined parties that support far right, culture war style rhetoric.
I guess both were historically seen as ‘larrikins’ and gained most support from white, working-class voters that are now seen as the base for conservative parties worldwide.
The problem is that Steve Christou just want social media presence with the Anglo Australian movement rather than even care for his own residents. This is why is super obsessed in starting culture wars against Indigenous Australia, transgender individuals and the Multicultural communities (funny that the latter makes overwhelming majority of the council population). He is literally is Stephen Chavura supporter as well (ironically Chavura’s small Christian conservative college is in Toongabbie, another CALD heavy area).
A few year ago, the Liberal Party (and far-right coojers albeit differently) were no longer hostile to Muslim and thought they would had gradually shifted right (like Southern and Eastern Europeans) but this is no longer the case and their inroads were undone.
@ Marh
I remember a comment you made in 2022 about Muslims and Africans possibly shifting right and racism shifting towards East Asians-see below. This was off course before October 7th. Even if Gaza is less in the news there would be another Charlie Hebdo/Danish Cartoons or another controversey (revival of Isis) which wil lead to the Right wing becoming hostile once again. With Southern and East Europeans i think they are more accepted by the Anglo Majority. People like Georgia Meloni, Victor Orban and the Law and Justice Party in Poland will all be admired by the right wing nationalists in the Anglosphere.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/archive/vic2022/glenwaverley2022#comment-774553
Exactly there will always be some controversy or war happening somewhere in the middle east. This could be Iran Gaza Iraq Afghanistan you name it.
Nimalan, many from Southern or Eastern European backgrounds were part of the ‘old’ wave of migration in the early to mid-20th Century. They may also have shared beliefs (Christian type religion) compared to the Anglo/white majority. As a result, they have now integrated into the wider Australian culture unlike those from non-European backgrounds (Asian, Middle East and African countries) who arrived in later years and also have different beliefs (non-Christian religions).
@ Yon An
I think you are 100% correct there are stronger cultural bonds between Anglo Australians and Southern/Eastern Europeans which is why they have now been embranced by thr right wing. There maybe some overlap in Values between the Christian Right and Muslims such as (opposition to LGBT, pornography and Hedonism in society). However, i think John is 100% correct they will always be some controversy. While Christians and Muslims are both Abrahamic Religions both religions are global and seek converts and are the 2 largest on earth so maybe a clash of cultures are inevetible. I think some may have seen this like the Protestant/Catholic divide which now non-existant.
@ Nimalan, I wonder if the Right-wing Nationalist also becomes anti-Eastern/Southern European and says even that “threatens” Anglo-Celtic Heritage, what would had happened? As I mentioned with Stephen Chavura in past post, he even placed post-war non-Anglo Europeans below Anglo-Australians alongside is part in the White Anglo Nationalist organisation “British Australian Community” which is ironic as he is half Slavic himself.
@ Marh
I personally doubt it for one reason. Eastern/Southern Europeans tend to be more socially conservative and religious than Western Europeans and when they assimilate and adopt Anglo Mannerisms such as accents, personality traits they increasingly become Anglo passing. In someways Eastern/Southern Europeans have retained what Anglos have lost namely Christianity. Areas that have high Eastern/Southern Europeans have some of the highest % of Christians in Australia.Also White Nationalists in the new World such as US, Canada and Australia are increasingly Pan-Europeanist in a way that Old world Nationalists are not. For example Croatian nationalists will be Anti-Serb, Ukranian Nationalists Anti-Russian, Hungarian nationalists Anti-Romanian or Northern Ireland Unionists wil be Anti Irish. In the new World i think Race plays a bigger role than Ethnicity.
@Nimalan, interesting take about New World White Nationalist although I think American White Nationalist is probably more likely to be pan-Europeanist compared to Australia has America did not had a strong Anglo identity to begin with and there was a large amount of Western European Conservatives (the largest amount from Germany which Trump himself was descendant of the wave) migrated to America as they resisted the Western European Reformist which these mixing gave birth to American strong Conservative and Nationalist Culture.
@ Marh
I think that is a very fair point. The US did not develop a strong Anglo Identity so i think you are correct US white Nationalists are more Pan-Europeanist than in Australia. In the US Anglo-Americans are a minority know and the only reason whites are still the a Majority is due to Other Europeans. Pan Europeanism is needed to shore up a majority which is why i think assimilated fair skinned hispanics will be invited to join the cultural majority otherwise US will be Minority-Majority by 2050.
While in Europe, Pan Europeanism is less associated with the right. i sometimes wonder if Christian Right feel a greater affinity to other Abrahmic religions over Non-Abrahmic so would someone in the Christian Right be more more Pro-Pakistan and Anti-India as Hindus are not strictly monothestic and not Abrahamic.