Blaxland – Australia 2025

It is strange but I think one thing is otherwise guaranteed is that the Liberals won’t be preferencing those guys or Greens above Labor, lest they want to throw themselves into a lather and implode from within their conservative ranks.

Also don’t these guys realise that if the votes do end up putting Liberals ahead of Labor (hypothetically) or makes Labor lose the seat but the Coalition wins government, doesn’t that defeat their purpose? Who in their right minds think that the Liberals will do good in the Middle East when they’ve been more pro-Israel than any other political party in the world, apart from maybe the American ones.

If they want to have any effect in their campaign then they need to pressure Labor to change (which it has) and not just unleash on Labor because they’re in government. It’s like cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Not sure how much of a personal vote Jason Clare has but if he does it should save him.

@votante i believe the parachute was in response to KK being relegated to the unwinnable 3 Rd spot on the nsw Labor senate ticket.

While he’s not a parachute he can still lose the seat his electorate consists of 46% new voters after redistribution and a high percentage of Muslim voters in the electorate over 30%. Given angst over the Gaza issue and the fact there is still a col crisis. Labor could lose this seat. The left/right split here is 61-39 which is much higher then McMahon. However the above factors could easily topple Labor for either Ouf or a carbone linked candidate if the centre right vote galvanising behind them and they stripped some of labors primary

The problem is if Labor changes to suit them they will lose support from the centre. A carbone linked candidate would absolutely be prefernced above Labor. Ouf is a wildcats and he can only win with support from the liberals.

The only HTVs that matter are the major parties. Minor party voters have very little adherence to HTV cards. The order TMV candidates put the majors is not going to change the result of the seat.

Adda – totally disagree.
“Have very little adherence to HTV cards” – wrong.
Varying levels – yes
Unless none or very few were given out – adherence is usually above 50% .
The numbers need to be higher to be effective. One Nation and UAP aren’t in the same tightness of flow league that the Greens are for the ALP.

It depends on the type of minor party. Generally minor parties (especially those without parliamentary representation) don’t have volunteers at every booth giving out HTV cards. Minor parties such as socialist parties or Fusion generally preference Labor because their voters are left-leaning, not just because the HTV cards told them to preference Labor. On the flipside, Christian or family parties have a high flow to the LNP.

@John, yes, Jason Clare is like a new candidate in such areas absorbed into Blaxland, except he has a ministerial profile. The trick is to hold the vote especially west of Woodville Road and in Granville.

Yes, my point is that minor party voters do not have “high adherence” to the HTV, since that requires following the HTV exactly (ie. following the card). There’s been ample evidence to show that the follow rate is very low. So the choice of which major party TMV chooses will be a minor difference at most. Greens voters and some other parties like Christians have very high rates of preferencing one particular party because that’s how their voters choose to preference, not because they are following the party’s HTV.

For a more detailed exploration of this topic I recommend the following blog post from KB https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-overrated-impact-of-reps.html

The appalling antisemitic video with the nurses at Bankstown hospital which happened today was absolutely disgusting. Clearly it was designed to provoke and promote hate of Jews and those involved ought to be ashamed and punished.

However, could this sort of thing plus the government’s condemnation, possibly send more Muslim voters to the likes of Basyouny and Ouf in Watson and Blaxland? After all it seems like voters in those electorates didn’t really condemn the incident (and who knows if anyone of them might actually support it silently) and they could easily pull off a campaign on ‘Albo is for the Jews, we’re for you and Palestine’.

I know it’s a long bow to draw but with the way the electorates behave these days it’s absolutely possible which is not good.

The incident is condemned by all of course. But We must differentiate between the actions of the Israeli govt and it’s actions and people who are Jewish for religious and cultural reasons.

I reckon most people who were going to vote based on the Gaza issue have already made up their minds and this issue wouldn’t swing many voters.

Maybe Votante, and I suspect in this electorate moreso than others. The only issue is if there are a lot more ‘problems’ at Bankstown hospital that come out over the next couple of months.

Elsewhere though, this seems to have taken hold more than just about anything else, there may well be a number of people who have been fairly neutral who see this as a bridge too far and look towards the Libs (despite the NSW Government being very much on the front foot post the Opera House debacle).

T liberals still have no candidate perhaps they want to run dead and let the Ind have a shot at the title. The other thing the libs could horse trade prefernces in seats like Blaxland and Watson etc in exchange for prefernces in lib seats under threats from the teal sand gee?

John – do you mean horse trade with Labor?

Yes labor is facing teal and Ind threats as well. The libs did a deal in WA so why not here. Labor is facing the same threats as the Libs in addition to the greens and lib prefernces could decide those seats for labor

One factor is the potential protest voter who’ll informally vote.

At the voice referendum, Blaxland had the highest informal rate. I heard on SBS not long after the referendum, people wrote “Free Palestine” on their ballots. They never said how many people did that. There are many other reasons for and types of informal voting.

There might be some voters who will “abstain” or vote informally in protest or because they can’t stomach putting numbers next to all the candidates. This would help Jason Clare.

It was a quiet Sunday afternoon and I was doing some googling on where the Muslim vote goes. Best I could find was a report from 2010 which didn’t actually say how Muslims vote but it did point out a high correalation of seats with a high muslim population and high informal vote. It couldn’t place if it was a language or education issue or disengagement but one study of the actual informal votes showed large numbers that were just blank. This seemed to be a very SW Sydney phenomenon compared to Northern Melbourne that also has a high Muslim population. Would be good to know where the Muslim vote has gone before now.

Prior to the 2024 UK election it was thought that about 80% of the Muslim vote went to Labour and then of course that crashed post Gaza. In Britain, Muslims are largely from a Pakistani or Bangladeshi background. In Australia, it is more diverse coming Lebanese and Turkish backgrounds as well as the Subcontinent and some from Indonesia and Malaysia, and Ed Husic is from a Bosnian background. What % would move to a Muslim candidate?

Ed Husic IMO does well for a number of reasons. Yes it is an ALP safe seat in Chifley, yes he is white and a (non-practicing) Muslim so he does aid in bridging a few difficult divides there. But what he does VERY well is he leans in to his local upbringings. He is seen within community. He doesn’t take himself too seriously. His portfolio isn’t one that is controversial or making too many negative headlines. He keeps his nose clean and posts a lot of engaging and genuine social media content. PLUS many of the preferences end up with him. It’s not a simple case of religion.

@Annie Won, Ed Husic is of Bosnian parentage. That is not white. So, the implication of your allusion is unclear. Anyway, he’s a reasonably good MP, I gather.

Actually Redistributed, in that area of Sydney around Chifley there is a large Balkan Muslim population. The more Lebanese Turkish populations are more the corridor from Kogeah to Parramatta inclusive of Canterbury, Lakemba, Bankstown, Liverpool and Auburn. As you head west of there it shifts more European Aka Italian, Maltese, Greek, Balkan states. That means Muslims out that way shifts towards Bosnian.

@Politik

Woah, South Slavs are not “white”? That is news to me.

Campaign Update: If this election was based on corflutes, Jason Clare would win by a massive landslide. Have only seen his corflutes around the electorate with a few sitting on one house corner of Georges Ave & Joseph St [A6]. Very busy route and good exposure next to the golf course. But that’s nothing compared to the car-park near the mosque, corner of St Hilliers Rd and Rawson St [A6] with approx 30 Corflutes!! on the fence.

Nicholas, it can be hard to define which groupings are considered ‘white’. When in high school/university and having some friends of Eastern European/Slavic origin, they did not like to be considered as ethnically white.

Even international organisations like the UN classify Eastern European countries as a separate group/category compared to Western Europe due to their distinct cultural identity.

Looks like Labor isn’t about to take this one down without a fight and have learnt their lesson from Fowler. The difference this time is that they have a high profile incumbent who’s a cabinet minister and quite popular personally, not to mention a gun campaigner himself. He and Burke needs to go all in to keep these seats.

@Yoh An, correct. Balkans and East Euros aren’t white. It isn’t about skin tone. It’s more about their culture, religion, behaviours and social conventions that were contrary to British/western customs, beliefs, practices and lifestyle.

I would have thought “Western European” would be the term there. How does the US census classify Slavs?

Nicholas,Bosnia was part of the Ottoman Empire until the late 19th century when Austria annexed it.As a result the population is Muslim.
LNPInsider,Ed Husic is a Muslim of Bosnian origin,so to that extent he fits his electorate well.

Yoh An and Politik, I think most countries would classify Eastern Europeans as White on their census. I think it should whether they are Western with Russians being the example given their skin color is as white as Anglos but just not Culturally and politically Western

@sabena

Yes, I’m aware of the history of that part of the world. Bosniaks are a South Slavic ethnic group who (unlike other Slavs) are predominantly Muslim. I also agree that Husic is a good fit for the electorate. What has me confused here is the usage of the term “white”.

At the risk of derailing this comment section, I’m very much not inclined to buy an argument that South Slavs are not white on the basis of “culture”. I expect just about any use of “white”, whether in official census terms or common everyday use, is close to a synonym for “European”. Certainly I do not think it would be arguable for Greeks to be called white, and Slavs are not any more distant from the rest of Europe.

Western European and Eastern European do get categorised as separate ethnic groups, but I have never heard of anyone claiming that “white” does not encompass both.

Returning to Blaxland – I’m real curious to see how the HTV cards turn out here. Assuming we have the Liberals, Labor, Greens, Ouf, and One Nation (and/or other right-wing minor parties) running, who preferences whom?

It sounds like people here think the Liberals will put Ouf below Labor. Does Labor return the favour? Do the Greens put Ouf above or below Labor? Where do right-wing minor parties put him? And what does Ouf himself do?

Any predictions for Ouf’s primary vote?

The Liberals will place the Muslim Vote and Muslim Votes Matter-endorsed independents below the Labor Party on their HTV cards in Blaxland, Watson and Calwell. This seals the independents’ fate.

To be frank, I didn’t think they had a chance of winning either seat to begin with.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/budging-labor-incumbents-huge-task-163000200.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAANBUB-GFSFdtT12spoAWWc-Dylo4jQFKXNet-R8aVMX_mJV6qPs6gYIVvdDSMOrlGxQ1fgvuTYI4acl1sPtt2ePGfim_wGWx4iYScbE1qA8Uk-9zAWOaxk-f81tOVJtY1wEgrZik4a_VTDhV-RgmnW04NBELkl9i_s7EucbFgM2o

https://nswliberal.org.au/courtney-nguyen

This was the 2022 Fowler and 2023 Cabramatta candidate, now in a seat with no connection to those areas.

Those 3 seats are her close together though. I won’t be expecting the Libs to run hard here though maybe try and direct preferences away from labor

There’s unconfirmed speculation the Libs will be preferencong labor over the Muslims votes candidates in Blaxland Watson and Falwell. Though another source has called this misinformation. Though I think we can pretty much assume they will in Watson. Which would be the hardest of the 3 anyway. Calwell has no incumbent and Blaxland has a major boundary change

If the Liberals prefrence the Muslim independents over Labor, then they have lost all credibility on the Middle East issue. One minute they’re “Pro Israel” and then the next they’re handing seats over to borderline radical independents

@NickG-your comment applies equally to Labor.

The purpose of the Claytons independents is to dupe gullible voters into giving their preference to the Liberal Party. The preferences on the Liberal HTV are irrelevant as they will not be distributed.
In Watson, the houses which always display Liberal Party corflutes, have signs for the Muslim independent (sic) only. I haven’t seen his signs on any other house.
The Liberal Party fielding Claytons independents is not new, although it worked much better before party names were printed on the ballot paper.

@nick g i havent seen any radical comments from Calwell or Blaxland. hough i agree they need to preference Burke in Watson

Confirming that Jason Clare will be placed above Ahmed Ouf on the Liberal HTV card

https://www.liberal.org.au/team/courtney-nguyen#how-to-vote

Clare & Ouf 2PP

Much afoot

Clare will win thanks to liberal preferences same in Watson and Calwell

The publicly available forms regarding declarations re: s44 of Ahmed Ouf are incomplete and disclose an Egyptian citizenship, seemingly unrenounced. The Court of Disputes Returns will have a field day with the nominations this time around so many discrepancies in so many seats.

Blaxland is my prediction for the biggest drop in the Labor primary vote (if not Calwell).

Ahmed Ouf (IND) and Omar Sakr (GRN) are high-profile contenders. Senator Faruqi has been visible at various community gatherings and protests in SW Sydney – Blaxland and Watson. I have seen lots of her corflutes in the area as opposed to Greens party corflutes.

Also, the redistribution has meant that Jason Clare isn’t the incumbent MP for a large chunk of the electorate.
I think the Labor primary vote was the highest here in 2022 and Jason Clare has more to lose. I also sense a general swing away from Labor in usually safe Labor, working-class seats.

Calwell may see a drop in Labor vote due to a huge field of candidates splitting votes.