ALP 5.2%
Incumbent MP
Shayne Neumann, since 2007.
Geography
Blair covers most of the City of Ipswich as well as Somerset Regional Council. The seat covers the urban area of Ipswich and rural areas to the west, and towns such as Esk and Kilcoy.
History
Blair was created at the 1998 election, one of a number of seats created in Queensland over the last few decades. The seat was held by the Liberal Party until 2007, when the ALP won.
Blair took over territory in Ipswich in 1998 from the seat of Oxley. Oxley had a long history of being held by the Labor Party but was lost to disendorsed Liberal candidate Pauline Hanson in 1996. Hanson formed One Nation in her term in the House of Representatives, and contested Blair in 1998. Hanson came first on primary votes, but lost on preferences. Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson came third on primary votes, but overtook the ALP on Nationals preferences and then overtook Hanson on Labor preferences.
Thompson held Blair at the 2001 and 2004 elections, but lost in 2007 to Labor candidate Shayne Neumann. Neumann was assisted by a redistribution which saw Blair take in more of pro-Labor Ipswich, losing rural conservatives areas to the northwest.
Neumann has been re-elected five times.
Assessment
Blair is a marginal Labor seat, although this is based on a relatively poor Labor performance in Queensland in 2022. It seems unlikely that Labor would go further backwards in Queensland unless there was a major change to the national polling environment.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shayne Neumann | Labor | 36,494 | 35.0 | +3.8 |
| Sam Biggins | Liberal National | 30,122 | 28.9 | -0.1 |
| Danielle Mutton | Greens | 13,113 | 12.6 | +3.9 |
| Liz Suduk | One Nation | 10,419 | 10.0 | -6.8 |
| Quinton Stewart Cunningham | United Australia | 6,353 | 6.1 | +2.7 |
| Michelle Jaques | Liberal Democrats | 3,080 | 3.0 | +3.0 |
| Angela Lowery | Animal Justice | 2,563 | 2.5 | +2.5 |
| Maria Pitman | Values Party | 2,103 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| Informal | 5,832 | 5.3 | -2.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Shayne Neumann | Labor | 57,575 | 55.2 | +4.0 |
| Sam Biggins | Liberal National | 46,672 | 44.8 | -4.0 |
Booths have been divided into five areas. Booths in Somerset local government area have been grouped together. Those booths in the City of Ipswich have been divided into four parts. Those in the rural west of the council area have been grouped together. Most of Blair’s population lives in the urban area around the centre of Ipswich, and these have been divided into Central, North and East.
Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in three areas, ranging from 54.9% in North Ipswich to 64.4% in East Ipswich. The LNP won 52.6% in rural Ipswich and 55.6% in Somerset.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.6% in Somerset to 16% in East Ipswich. One Nation came fourth, with a primary vote ranging from 8.5% in North Ipswich to 15% in Somerset.
| Voter group | GRN prim | ON prim | ALP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central Ipswich | 15.1 | 10.2 | 60.1 | 16,035 | 15.4 |
| East Ipswich | 16.0 | 9.0 | 64.4 | 9,805 | 9.4 |
| North Ipswich | 15.6 | 8.5 | 54.9 | 9,776 | 9.4 |
| Somerset | 7.6 | 15.0 | 44.4 | 8,869 | 8.5 |
| Rural Ipswich | 8.5 | 14.5 | 47.4 | 4,791 | 4.6 |
| Pre-poll | 12.0 | 8.6 | 55.5 | 31,854 | 30.6 |
| Other votes | 11.7 | 10.0 | 53.5 | 23,117 | 22.2 |
Election results in Blair at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal National Party, the Greens and One Nation.
@ Bumbalo
This is a white working class seat so it is favourable demographically for Dutton. The only seat in QLD that was at risk so it was Dutton’s to loose. However, longer term trends are not actually good for the Coalition due to the growth of Greater Springfield.
The big question mark around this electorate is what will become of it after the upcoming redistribution. I would say there’s a strong possibility that the entirety of Greater Springfield is transferred out of Blair.
But then Nimalan’s point may still largely stand if Ripley remains in Blair. I like to call Ripley “Greater Springfield V2.0”. It’s another masterplanned community, but it’s newer, it’s further out, and it has one-upped Springfield’s population ambition – 120,000 compared to 105,000.
Blair overall had almost no swing, with a Labor 2PP of just under 56%.
But Springfield and Ripley tell a different story:
– Springfield Central: Labor 66.02% (+3.53)
– Springfield Central North: 66.72% (+4.96)
– Springfield Lakes: 68.40% (+8.19)
– Ripley Valley: 65.68% (+9.69)
What could spell game over for Labor is if Blair gains the Lockyer Valley while holding onto Somerset – which would presumably coincide with transfers out from the (south-)eastern end of the electorate. I tend to think this is highly plausible if Queensland gains a seat.
@nimalan, Nicholas based on the defrceit south of the river Blair will shed parts of greater Springfield to Oxley in the upcoming redistribution. I’m also going to suggest moving the part of Brisbane back into Ryan to where it was before. Nicolas I think Lockyer should go to groom and then move maranoa further into Toowoomba.and then have Blair take in crows nest from Marianna. Moving the Lockyer valley into Blair would create a weird looking seat and would then require groom to go into maranoa and then make maranoa even bigger and weirder. If qld were to gain a seat the Blair would shed Somerset to the new seat thereby solidifying Blair for labor.