Wentworth – Australia 2022

LIB 1.3% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Dave Sharma, since 2019.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Sydney. Wentworth covers Woollahra and Waverley local government areas, as well as eastern parts of the City of Sydney and northern parts of Randwick LGA. Wentworth covers the southern shore of Sydney Harbour as far west as Elizabeth Bay, and covers the east coast from South Head to Clovelly. Main suburbs include Bondi, Woollahra, Vaucluse, Double Bay, Kings Cross and parts of Randwick, Darlinghurst and Clovelly. Wentworth also covers Moore Park and Centennial Park.

History
Wentworth is an original federation electorate and has always existed roughly in the eastern suburbs of Sydney. It has been held by conservative parties, including the Liberal Party since its foundation in 1944, except for a brief period in 2018-19 when it was won by an independent.

The seat was first won by William McMillan of the Free Trade party in 1901. He was elected deputy leader of his party but retired at the 1903 election. He was succeeded by William Kelly, also a Free Trader. Kelly joined the Commonwealth Liberal Party and served in Joseph Cook’s ministry from 1913 to 1914.

Kelly retired in 1919 as a Nationalist and was succeeded by Walter Marks. Marks joined with other Nationalists, including Billy Hughes, to bring down the Bruce government in 1929, and was reelected as an independent. Marks joined the new United Australia Party in 1931, but was defeated in that year’s election by Eric Harrison, another UAP candidate.

Harrison held the seat for twenty-five years for the UAP and the Liberal Party. He usually held the seat safely, although he only held on by 335 votes in 1943, when feminist campaigner Jessie Street (ALP) challenged Harrison. William Wentworth also polled 20%. He later joined the Liberal Party and was elected in Mackellar in 1949.

Harrison had served a number of brief stints as a minister under Joseph Lyons and Robert Menzies in the 1930s and early 1940s, and served as the first deputy leader of the Liberal Party from its foundation until his retirement in 1956. Harrison was a minister in the Menzies government from 1949 until 1956, when he retired.

Les Bury (LIB) won the seat at the 1956 by-election. He served as a minister from 1961 until 1971, serving as Treasurer under John Gorton and briefly as Treasurer and then Foreign Minister under William McMahon. Bury retired in 1974.

Robert Ellicott (LIB) was elected in 1974. He served as Attorney-General in the first Fraser Ministry and as Minister for Home Affairs from 1977 to 1981, when he resigned to serve on the Federal Court. The ensuing by-election was won by Peter Coleman. Coleman had previously served as Leader of the Opposition in the NSW Parliament, and lost his seat at the 1978 state election.

Coleman retired in 1987 and was succeeded by John Hewson. Hewson was elected leader of the Liberal Party following their 1990 election defeat. Hewson led the party into the 1993 election, where the party went backwards. He was replaced in May 1994 as leader by Alexander Downer, and he retired from Parliament in 1995.

Andrew Thomson won the following by-election. Thomson served briefly as a Parliamentary Secretary and junior minister in the first term of the Howard government. Thomson was defeated for preselection by Peter King in 2001.

King himself was defeated for preselection in a heated preselection campaign in 2004 by Malcolm Turnbull. The preselection saw a massive explosion in membership numbers for the Liberal Party in Wentworth. King ran as an independent and polled 18%, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 5.5%.

The redistribution after the 2004 election saw Wentworth extended deeper into the City of Sydney, and Turnbull’s margin was cut to 2.5%. Turnbull managed to win the seat in 2007 with a 1.3% swing towards him, in the face of a national swing against the Liberals.

Turnbull had served as a minister in the final term of the Howard government, and ran for the Liberal leadership following the 2007 election, losing to Brendan Nelson. After serving as Nelson’s Shadow Treasurer he was elected Leader of the Opposition in September 2008. After a rocky term as Leader of the Opposition, Turnbull was defeated by Tony Abbott by one vote in another leadership vote in December 2009. Turnbull served as a shadow minister and then as Minister for Communications under Tony Abbott’s leadership.

In September 2015, Turnbull successfully challenged Abbott for the Liberal leadership, and became Prime Minister. He led the Liberal-National coalition to a second term in government in 2016.

Malcolm Turnbull led the Liberal Party in government until August 2018, when he resigned following a motion to spill the Liberal leadership. He was succeeded as Prime Minister by Scott Morrison. Turnbull resigned from Wentworth shortly after losing the leadership.

The 2018 Wentworth by-election was won by independent candidate Kerryn Phelps. Phelps held the seat until the 2019 election, when she was defeated by Liberal candidate Dave Sharma.

Candidates

Assessment
Wentworth has traditionally been a safe Liberal seat, although the margin was cut to the bone when Malcolm Turnbull first won the seat.

Sharma appears to be facing a serious threat from independent Allegra Spender, who could well win the seat.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Dave Sharma Liberal 42,575 47.4 -14.8
Kerryn Phelps Independent 29,109 32.4 +32.4
Tim Murray Labor 9,824 10.9 -6.8
Dominic Wy Kanak Greens 6,759 7.5 -7.3
Michael John Bloomfield United Australia Party 625 0.7 +0.7
Matthew Drake-Brockman Independent 516 0.6 +0.6
Paul Treacy Christian Democratic Party 346 0.4 -0.7
Informal 2,771 3.0 -2.1

2019 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Dave Sharma Liberal 46,050 51.3 +51.3
Kerryn Phelps Independent 43,704 48.7 +48.7

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Dave Sharma Liberal 53,716 59.8 -7.9
Tim Murray Labor 36,038 40.2 +7.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: Bondi-Waverley (the beach), Paddington (the city) and Vaucluse (the harbour).

The Liberal Party won a large 62.1% majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote in Vaucluse while Phelps won narrower majorities of 56.5% in Bondi-Waverley and 53% in Paddington.

Voter group ALP prim % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Bondi-Waverley 13.6 43.5 22,443 25.0
Paddington 11.0 47.0 14,864 16.6
Vaucluse 6.1 62.1 10,880 12.1
Pre-poll 10.8 52.9 28,285 31.5
Other votes 10.6 57.0 13,282 14.8

Election results in Wentworth at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes, two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the independent candidate Kerryn Phelps, the Liberal Party, and Labor.

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125 COMMENTS

  1. Dave Sharma has been preselected to replace Marise Payne in the senate. You would have to think that guarantees Sharma won’t be recontesting Wentworth at the next election.

  2. Also makes a mockery of the idea that locals should vote for moderate branded Liberals over an independent to make sure they can influence the Liberals from within. Of course even having a moderate Prime Minister won’t necessarily guarantee their strength within the party, and they’d be all too familiar with that in Wentworth.

    I don’t see any permutation of an Eastern Suburbs seat ending in the blue column – too many young renters whether it’s the inner city or near the beach.

  3. It would not surprise me if Dave Sharma ended up being the last Liberal MP for Wentworth. Allegra Spender would seem secure for the foreseeable future. In the future I see it being like a Sydney version of Macnamara – basically 55% Labor with a few % either way but always just our of Liberal reach.

  4. It was pretty obvious as to why Sharma was chosen, Because they know they won’t win this back.

    Choosing Constance would have meant they would’ve been denied a strong candidate for Gilmore, And choosing Zed would have gotten allot of backlash because he would’ve been parachuted across states, and he is hard-right which means the Liberal party would’ve learnt 0.

  5. @daniel t he would have still run for Gilmore. The plan was to use it as a springboard to the lower house he would have simply quit the senate. That was the plan when molan died.

  6. @louis given the fact its likely to become a marginal seat on 2pp terms due to redistribution they’re better off with spender holding the seat asap independant rather then risk losing it to Labor

  7. I wonder how many Turnbull fans voted Liberal in 2022 but will change their votes in 2025 as they haven’t forgiven or forgotten what Dutton did to Turnbull.

    On ABC’s Nemisis, there were Liberals who lost their seats to the teals saying that voters said to them, “I like you but I can’t vote for you” or “I like you but I don’t like Morrison or the Liberals”. There’s a cohort that stuck with Liberal in 2022 because of Dave Sharma, but now that there’s no Liberal incumbent and Dutton is the LOTO, they’ll switch to Spender.

  8. @votanye that will serve the liberals better anyway as they risk losing the seat to Labor after the redistribution

  9. The majority of voters in Dover Heights and Vaucluse voted No in the Voice referendum. And in Bellevue Hill South, the Yes vote only extremely narrowly won, with a margin of just one vote. Other booths that narrowly voted Yes by less than 100 votes include Double Bay East, the EAV Wentworth PPVC, Edgecliff, Kings Cross, Rose Bay Central, Rose Bay PPVC, Ultimo, Vaucluse East and Wynyard.

  10. @ NP
    I generally agree with your analysis on Wentworth. Lower Density areas such as Dover Heights voted No will more densely populated areas with more Young Renters Voted Yes. I also dont think Wentworth can be won by Labor unless possibly if there is a redistribution to include Surry Hills/Redfern but even then i am not sure.

  11. @Nimalan putting Redfern in the same seat as Darling Point would be very weird. Redfern was once notorious for its crime and it was once known for being full of people living in housing commission whereas Darling Point is right on Sydney Harbour and is home to many millionaires in mansions given that it’s the most expensive suburb in Sydney (a quick Google search tells me that in 2022 the median sale price in Darling Point is $10,350,000, but other more recent sources say that Bellevue Hill and Point Piper are more expensive, but those suburbs are still in Wentworth).

  12. Here’s some ABS stats for this seat, as of the 2021 census:

    * 0.4% are Indigenous, compared to 3.4% statewide and 3.2% nationwide
    * The median weekly household income is $2,870
    * The median age is 38, compared to the state average of 39 and the national average of 38
    * 53.6% have a Batchelor Degree or higher
    * 57.6% were born in Australia, compared to 65.4% statewide and 66.9% nationwide
    * 7.3% were born in England, compared to 2.9% statewide and 3.6% nationwide
    * The other top three countries of birth are South Africa (3.9%), New Zealand (2.5%), America (1.7%) and China (1.4%).
    * 46.0% come from families where both parents were born overseas, while 32.4% come from families where both parents were born in Australia
    * 40.6% are non-religious compared to 32.8% statewide and 38.4% nationwide
    * The next most common religions are Catholicism (19.0%), Judaism (13.5%) and Anglicanism (9.2%)
    * 76.4% speak only English at home, compared to 67.6% statewide and 72.0% nationwide
    * The next most spoken languages at home are Spanish (2.0%), Mandarin (1.7%), French (1.5%), Russian (1.3%) and Portuguese (1.3%)
    * The unemployment rate is 3.6%, compared to 4.9% statewide and 5.1% nationwide
    * 43.1% work as professionals and 23.0% are managers, while all other jobs are below 10.0% individually
    * 92.2% have never served in the ADF, compared to 91.6% statewide and 91.2% nationwide
    * 46.2% of families are couples without children while 40.8% are couples with children and 11.5% are one-parent families
    * 61.7% live in a flat or an apartment, compared to 21.7% statewide and 14.2% nationwide

  13. @ NP
    Agree with you i dont like the idea of Redfern in Wentworth. Also interesting statistics. The Jewish population in Wentworth is the highest in the nation. I believe Dover Heights is the only Majority Jewish suburb in Australia

  14. So with a weekly household income of $2,870, which is a monthly household income of $12,437 and a yearly household income of $149,240, Wentworth is considered an upper-class electorate for a household with one or two people and even in a house with 10 people it’s still middle class (I worked thus out using an online calculator).

  15. I have a theory that the Voice Referendum support (Yes Vote) doesn’t grow linearly by income but rather like wave
    Very Low Income (A lot are indiginous and young students) actually has a higher Yes Voter than the ones with salaries at working and lower class incomes but then support goes up again at Upper Middle Class (educated white collar) but drops again at the upper class (old-money business people fiscal conservatives)

  16. @ Marh
    I found a publication by Accent Research. Shaun Ratcliffe who Ben has done podcasts with is from that Organisation. They did a publication abut the voice (link at the bottom). The publication examined key demographics and their support for the Voice. Two crucial demographic factors stood out. Firstly, when looking at languages spoken at home, those who spoke only English were 61:39 in favour of ‘No,’ while those who spoke another language broke 53:47 in favour of the voice. Another factor was religion; those who practiced a religion other than Protestantism or Catholicism split 50:50. While these results are not overwhelming, they do suggest that individuals from CALD communities were more likely to support the voice, all else being equal.

    https://www.accent-research.com/projects/the-voice

  17. Nimalan, that would make sense as many districts that voted ‘No’ to the same sex marriage plebiscite recorded either average or above average results on the Voice Referendum.

    As a guide, Bennelong and Parramatta narrowly voted No on the referendum (with support being about 5% or more above the national average). In contrast, they narrowly voted No for the same sex marriage survey (with support being >10% below the national average).

  18. I believe the districts with high proportion of tertiary educated young adults (mostly in the inner suburbs of capital cities) recorded above average results for both plebiscites.

  19. @Nimalan, good points here although they seem to leave out the difference between Australian Born (or immigrated as a child) CALD and those who came later in life. I would expect it that the first would be heavily Yes and latter would be a No.

  20. @ Yoh An

    Agree even a seat like Blaxland which had the highest No vote for SSM had a fairly average vote for the Voice and better than more affluent seats such as Cook or Moore. On the other hand white working class seats such as Hunter, Shortland, Spence etc had a very strong YES vote for SSM.

    @ Marh
    Generally agree. Although South Asians (other than Sri Lankans) are among the most recent wave of immigrants and voted strongly YES. The number of Australian-born South Asians who are of voting age will be quite small especially in the growth area suburbs which generally have the highest % of South Asians. The Vietnamese Community traditionally less economically well off but now into the Third Generation seems to align with your premise as suburbs such as Springvale, Noble Park, Sunshine, St Albans etc were strongly Yes voting suburbs but there is a higher % of Australian born (or immigrated as a child). The Afghan community is interesting as it probably among the newest and fasted growing refugee communities and the suburbs around Dandenong, Doveton, Hallam etc voted Yes.

  21. Back to question on why Upper Class (Vaucluse , Toorak etc) voted No but Upper Middle Class Voted (high density inner city) voted Yes is since White Collar Professionals don’t share the same sentiment as wealthy businesspeople and Surgeons even though they are both university educated and the latter being mostly wealthier. One believes that responsibility is why they succeed and the other believes that it is the support in previous generations is why they were able to succeed

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