Senate – Tasmania – Australia 2022

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7 COMMENTS

  1. Eric Abetz is in trouble. Period.
    The last seat is between himself and Tammi Tyrell (JLN) and whether he holds on remains to be seen.

  2. I wouldn’t be cerain enough Jacqui Lambie support transfers to JLN when she isn’t on the ballot. 2018 state election was very disappointing, so much so they couldn’t be arsed in 2021.

    I think Tasmania is more like to elect 3 Labor and 1 Green than a JLN in the event that Eric Abetz fails to win.

  3. Slightly off topic but out of curiosity why did Tasmania vote against Bob Hawke during his elections? Why did Tasmania overwhelmingly vote for the coalition during the 1980s even backing Fraser in 1983, Is there any historical reason as to why this happened?

    Was Whitlam hated in Tasmania and the damage was so great Tasmania distrusted Labor?
    Was the Liberal party popular in Tasmania at the time?
    Or was the Tasmanian state government unpopular at the time?

    I’d be interesting in knowing if anyone here knows or knows someone who might know, Couldn’t find anything on google suggesting why Hawke did poorly in Tasmania

  4. Daniel, ever heard of the Franklin Dam Crisis? Huge ramifications for Tasmania well into the 90s.

  5. Daniel,

    The impact of the Tasmanian Dams crisis on Tasmania can not be overstated. It was not just an argument about building a dam but at the heart of employment, relationship between the States and Commonwealth and the future of the for business. As Wreathy correctly points out the implications flowed into the 90s and Tasmania is only really now recovering from the dislocation of having one of its major industries – dam building – shut down and the lack of power to fuel industry. Which led to very slow population growth as the young people migrated inter-state.

    The Liberal premier at the time – Robin Gray – got about 60% of the primary vote in Queenstown – a labor mining town. I think I have noted elsewhere that the liberals in Tassie are really Nationals with a liberal moniker. The impact on Tassie in the 80s and the political fallout does have similarities to the reaction in the QLD “coal seats” at the last election when the labor party (and Bob Brown) threatened to end / limit coal mining. Don’t mess with people’s jobs…….

    On other thing about the Tasmania Dams crisis is that Gareth Evans (who was defence minister at the time) was not satisfied with the reports / information he was receiving on the progress of the dam’s construction. So he sent an air force F 1-11 on an aerial photo reconnaissance mission. I am sure the photos were nice but using the defence force to “spy” on citizens and a state government was never going to endear the labor party to the good voters of Tasmania. I don’t think Dutton would use defence force assets to check on the progress of the Adani coal mine.

    It is also worth considering the amount of co2 that would have been saved had the dam been built rather than running the oil (later converted to gas) plant at Bell Bay and then bass link bringing in dirty power from victoria = latrobe valley brown coal. The River or wind power (which is an eyesore and kills birds) or CO2? An example of how some very very hard decisions have to be made if the world wants to get to “net zero emissions”. Solar is not a viable option in Tassie as it is too far south and too overcast. And due to the vast majority of energy being generated in Tassie from hydro and wind the state is already at “net zero emissions”….. Which will mean that the main-landers risk annoying Tassie residents if they impose policies that impacts Tassie to clean up their mess due to burning fossil fuels for power.

    None of the above will impact on the Senate voting in Tassie at the next election but might do so in the future…..

    Best

    Pollster

  6. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/tassen2022/comment-page-1#comment-758589

    Only 1 dam was stopped, dam building would only have lasted a few more years with it going ahead. Tariff reductions and automation were reducing manufacturing jobs in the 1980s and 1990s anyway.

    Using spy planes was legitimate. They just should have been stealthy and kept their mouths shut about it unless they needed it in court. Satellite photos are sufficiently available now that spy planes are unlikely to be needed in this day and age but if it was, Dutton would probably be willing to use them.

    Basslink makes renewable energy more viable because it is dispatchable power. Solar is viable in Tasmania, just not as big a return on investment as in most of the rest of Australia. Tasmania has low electricity carbon emissions, however other emitting sectors (such as transport) still need work.

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