Senate – South Australia – Australia 2022

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10 COMMENTS

  1. The comment section won’t load on Spence for some reason.

    But as I said previously I expect 2 Lib, 2 Lab, 1 GRN and 1 minor party (Possible the revived Family First if they do well)

  2. If Nick Xenophon runs I think it will be 2 Labor, 2 Liberals, 1 Greens, and 1 Xenophon. If Xenophon doesn’t run I think it will be 2 Labor, 3 Liberals, and 1 Green.

    It is possible though the third Liberal doesn’t get up and filled by another minor party in Family First. But from what’s been announced they have said to plan to run candidates in the next SA state election but they have been quiet what they will do federally.

    Rex Patrick for the Rex Patrick Team party and Stirling Griff for Centre Alliance both will almost certainly will be defeated at the next federal election. Patrick replaced Xenophon in the senate and quit Centre Alliance and formed his own party.

  3. Will people call out Xenophon running because this jeopardises the chances of both Barbara Pocock (GRN) and Kerryne Liddle (3rd Lib), Liddle being an indigenous Australian?

  4. Is Xenophon running under the Centre Alliance banner or just as an independent?
    Interesting to note that his former CA colleagues- Rex Patrick and Sterling Griff’s terms also expire at the next election.
    Potentially groundswell for another political party if enough like-minded independents get elected in 2022. All seem to be fairly moderate and have similar belief re: climate change and establishing a federal ICAC

  5. If Xenophon runs as an independent it is pretty shabby treatment of both Rex Patrick and Stirling Griff – both of whom – but Patrick in particular – have been assets to the Senate. What is Xenophons greatest motivation – narcissism or relevance and attention deprivation? He has to make up his mind if he stays or goes.

    There was talk of Rex Patrick running for Grey – what happened to that?

  6. Is Xenophon as popular anymore? after his presidential style campaign in the 2018 state election which had high hopes at first but then didn’t bear fruit at the state election with no seats and even Nick himself failed to win Hartley.

    Sure this is the senate and preferences from Labor and the Greens will be key but afterall it is the same voters. Would Xenophon have won a senate seat based off the 2018 state election primaries? I would think so but it surely was a huge decline from their vote in 2016 federally.

    Xenophon has a fair chance but don’t be surprised if he doesn’t win because of his decline. I expect FF or even an outside chance of PHON to take the 6th seat instead.

  7. I don’t think Xenophon is treating Griff and Patrick badly. Their chances of re-election were basically zero, so nothing changes for them.

    Daniel, you’ve got it all wrong. The electoral system blunted Xenophon’s campaign but I don’t think it said anything about his statewide appeal. Yes people were less likely to vote for his other candidates when he wasn’t on the ballot, but he did poll 14% in the lower house, which is almost exactly a full Senate quota and a pretty impressive result for a minor party in a statewide election. I also suspect it’s harder for him to peel votes away from the major parties when they are associated with incumbent lower house MPs, unlike in statewide upper house elections where he’s had all his success. Meanwhile his team in the upper house polled 19.4%, just down from the 21.8% he polled in the Senate in 2016. On those numbers I wouldn’t rule out a second seat.

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