|Term due to expire 2022||Term due to expire 2025|
|Matt Canavan (Liberal National)||Nita Green (Labor)|
|Anthony Chisholm (Labor)||Susan McDonald (Liberal National)|
|Pauline Hanson (One Nation)||Gerard Rennick (Liberal National)|
|James McGrath (Liberal National)||Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)|
|Amanda Stoker (Liberal National)||Paul Scarr (Liberal National)|
|Murray Watt (Labor)||Larissa Waters (Greens)|
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.
From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.
The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.
The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.
The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.
The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.
The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.
In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.
In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.
At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.
Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.
At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.
|United Australia Party||102,230||3.5||+3.5||0.2466|
|Help End Marijuana Prohibition||50,828||1.8||+1.8||0.1226|
|Katter’s Australian Party||51,407||1.8||0.0||0.1240|
|Conservative National Party||37,184||1.3||+1.3||0.0897|
|Shooters, Fishers and Farmers||29,329||1.0||-0.1||0.0708|
|Rise Up Australia||22,529||0.8||+0.6||0.0544|
|Hetty Johnston independent group||18,341||0.6||+0.6||0.0442|
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the LNP and one for Labor.
Let’s look at the final ten candidates competing for the last three seats, including three incumbent senators and two former members of parliament:
- Gerard Rennick (LNP) – 0.7936 quotas
- Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.7889
- Larissa Waters (GRN) – 0.7771
- Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.6331
- Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.2808
- John Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1726
- Joy Marriott (KAP) – 0.1659
- Karagh-Mae Kelly (AJP) – 0.1351
- Jeff Hodges (SFF) – 0.1121
- Fraser Anning (CNP) – 0.1099
Anning’s preferences pushed Roberts into the lead.
- Roberts (ON) – 0.8318
- Rennick (LNP) – 0.8114
- Waters (GRN) – 0.7807
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.6376
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.2916
- Marriott (KAP) – 0.1775
- Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1770
- Kelly (AJP) – 0.1380
- Hodges (SFF) – 0.1198
Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to the KAP, and also One Nation and the LNP.
- Roberts (ON) – 0.8526
- Rennick (LNP) – 0.8229
- Waters (GRN) – 0.7857
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.6457
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.2980
- Marriott (KAP) – 0.2020
- Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1979
- Kelly (AJP) – 0.1459
Animal Justice preferences favoured the Greens and HEMP, pushing HEMP out of last place and pushing the Greens ahead of the LNP.
- Roberts (ON) – 0.8656
- Waters (GRN) – 0.8377
- Rennick (LNP) – 0.8354
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.6605
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3043
- Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2224
- Marriott (KAP) – 0.2053
KAP preferences flowed most strongly to One Nation, but also pushed the LNP back ahead of the Greens:
- Roberts (ON) – 0.9359
- Rennick (LNP) – 0.8752
- Waters (GRN) – 0.8473
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.6826
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3282
- Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2385
HEMP preferences favoured the Greens:
- Roberts (ON) – 0.9698
- Waters (GRN) – 0.9117
- Rennick (LNP) – 0.8974
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.7162
- Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425
Palmer’s preferences elected Roberts and brought the LNP close to the fifth seat:
- Roberts (ON) – 1.1276
- Rennick (LNP) – 0.9902
- Waters (GRN) – 0.9376
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.7430
Roberts’ surplus elected Rennick, leaving the final contest as:
- Waters (GRN) – 0.9579
- Ketter (ALP) – 0.7681
The three leading Labor candidates are:
- Murray Watt
- Anthony Chisholm
- Edwina Andrew
The three leading Liberal National candidates are:
- James McGrath
- Matt Canavan
- Amanda Stoker
Other lead candidates are:
- Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
- Bess Brennan (New Liberals)
- Kamala Emanuel (Socialist Alliance)
- Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
- Jason Miles (Great Australian Party)
- Campbell Newman (Liberal Democrats)
- Drew Pavlou (Democratic Alliance)
- Mackenzie Severns (Animal Justice)
The Queensland senators up for election in 2022 are skewed to the right – the LNP and One Nation hold four seats while Labor holds just two. The left only managed two seats in 2019, but if there is any swing to Labor they should be in a position to win two seats along with one Green.
If this takes place, it means that there is one less seat for the right, and the last seat is likely to be a fierce contest between the LNP’s Amanda Stoker and Pauline Hanson, with Campbell Newman as a dark horse.