Senate – Queensland – Australia 2022

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2022Term due to expire 2025
Matt Canavan (Liberal National) Nita Green (Labor)
Anthony Chisholm (Labor) Susan McDonald (Liberal National)
Pauline Hanson (One Nation) Gerard Rennick (Liberal National)
James McGrath (Liberal National) Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)
Amanda Stoker (Liberal National) Paul Scarr (Liberal National)
Murray Watt (Labor) Larissa Waters (Greens)

History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.

From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.

The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.

The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.

The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.

The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.

In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.

In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.

At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.

Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.

At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.

2019 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal National 1,128,73038.9+3.62.7231
Labor 654,77422.6-3.81.5797
One Nation297,99410.3+1.10.7189
Greens 288,3209.9+3.10.6956
United Australia Party102,2303.5+3.50.2466
Help End Marijuana Prohibition50,8281.8+1.80.1226
Katter’s Australian Party51,4071.80.00.1240
Animal Justice38,6241.3+0.10.0932
Conservative National Party37,1841.3+1.30.0897
Australian Conservatives29,0961.0+1.00.0702
Democratic Labour28,8111.0+0.40.0695
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers29,3291.0-0.10.0708
Liberal Democrats24,0000.8-2.00.0579
Rise Up Australia22,5290.8+0.60.0544
Hetty Johnston independent group18,3410.6+0.60.0442
Others99,2673.4

Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the LNP and one for Labor.

Let’s look at the final ten candidates competing for the last three seats, including three incumbent senators and two former members of parliament:

  • Gerard Rennick (LNP) – 0.7936 quotas
  • Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.7889
  • Larissa Waters (GRN) – 0.7771
  • Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.6331
  • Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.2808
  • John Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1726
  • Joy Marriott (KAP) – 0.1659
  • Karagh-Mae Kelly (AJP) – 0.1351
  • Jeff Hodges (SFF) – 0.1121
  • Fraser Anning (CNP) – 0.1099

Anning’s preferences pushed Roberts into the lead.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8318
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8114
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.7807
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6376
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.2916
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.1775
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1770
  • Kelly (AJP) – 0.1380
  • Hodges (SFF) – 0.1198

Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to the KAP, and also One Nation and the LNP.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8526
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8229
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.7857
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6457
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.2980
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.2020
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1979
  • Kelly (AJP) – 0.1459

Animal Justice preferences favoured the Greens and HEMP, pushing HEMP out of last place and pushing the Greens ahead of the LNP.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8656
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.8377
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8354
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6605
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3043
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2224
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.2053

KAP preferences flowed most strongly to One Nation, but also pushed the LNP back ahead of the Greens:

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.9359
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8752
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.8473
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6826
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3282
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2385

HEMP preferences favoured the Greens:

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.9698
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9117
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8974
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7162
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425

Palmer’s preferences elected Roberts and brought the LNP close to the fifth seat:

  • Roberts (ON) – 1.1276
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.9902
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9376
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7430

Roberts’ surplus elected Rennick, leaving the final contest as:

  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9579
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7681

Candidates
The three leading Labor candidates are:

  1. Murray Watt
  2. Anthony Chisholm
  3. Edwina Andrew

The three leading LNP candidates are:

  1. James McGrath
  2. Matt Canavan
  3. Amanda Stoker

Other lead candidates are:

  • Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
  • Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
  • Campbell Newman (Liberal Democrats)
  • Jason Miles (Great Australian Party)
  • Bess Brennan (New Liberals)

Assessment
The Queensland senators up for election in 2022 are skewed to the right – the LNP and One Nation hold four seats while Labor holds just two. The left only managed two seats in 2019, but if there is any swing to Labor they should be in a position to win two seats along with one Green.

If this takes place, it means that there is one less seat for the right, and the last seat is likely to be a fierce contest between the LNP’s Amanda Stoker and Pauline Hanson, with Campbell Newman as a dark horse.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. Doubt that Newman will get a chance here, especially with Hanson in the mix. could possibly snag one of the libs but he’d have to perform well and rely on preferences.

  2. remember the greens. If Labor do well they’ll get 2 and a bit quotas and that would flow on to the Greens

  3. So the 2019 4PP baseline here is thus: LNP 3.02 quotas; Labor 1.76 quotas; One Nation 1.12 quotas; Greens 0.93 quotas; (exhaust 0.17 Q).

    For Labor to pick their second seat back up they’ll need to drag someone else down. If you’re positing a several percent swing from LNP to Labor, for example, then that does a lot. The danger for the Greens is of course for Labor to overtake them, but in such a way that either Hanson or LNP #3 is only just under a partial quota and edges them out. Or they could just, y’know, lose votes to Labor.

  4. I predict the LNP will win 3 seats folks. This is QLD. Will buck the Nationwide trend and will swing to the government unlike the disaster they face in Victoria and WA.

    1 ALP and 1 GRN is a lock, and Hanson and Newman fight for the 6th seat.

    I don’t like her but unfortunately Stroker will win again

  5. ALP 2, LNP 2, and a fight with One Nation, LNP, and the Greens for the last two spots. One Nation vote has plummeted since the last federal election. That vote returned to LNP but also Labor at the last state election should be sufficient to deliver Labor a secound quota.

    Apparently Larissa Waters has a bit of a following in Queensland which helps the Greens. But Penny Allman-Payne is a relatively unknown and getting a secound senator has been a bit of a bogey for them and may continue at the next election.

    I don’t see Campbell Newman in the mix. But he could be the biggest loser if the if the Morrison government get legislation in parliament that stops similar party names and 1500 members for a minimum to register a poltical party. Liberal Democrats name has been quite established a new party name would seal his fate.

  6. Alex the scenario you put forth is very spooky and I’m going to need you to delete it before I cry

  7. Has the One Nation vote actually “plummeted” though?

    Poll Bludger has them at 2.9% nationwide, which certainly sounds like not much, but it’s only down from 3.1%… so even if you apply the *relative* drop, then their 1.12 quotas from last time goes down to… 1.05 quotas. And Hanson herself is on the ballot this year, so any local candidate issues PHON might’ve had in 2020 are largely irrelevant. I think she’ll be comfortably re-elected.

  8. Also, Ben, your “Others” total is not correct – I think what you’ve got there is the Unendorsed/Ungrouped minus Hetty Johnston. The 10 remaining parties on the ballot from the Pirates down to the CEC aren’t included in any total.

  9. @AlexJ

    The One Nation vote in the Queensland state election dropped 6.6%. I think its fair to say that it’s plummeted but I didn’t say One Nation were not still in the hunt for a senate seat in Queensland. The 7.12% vote they received does still give them a ‘base’ for a senate seat run which I’m not convinced Campbell Newman will be able to draw on for his run.

    Federal and state results can be seen to be different though. But there has been ties between One Nation popularity federally and state as well to draw comparisons with their popularity.

  10. I think it likely that the ALP will get 2 seats, the Greens 1 seat and only 1 of PHON and LNP no.3 will win.

    Newman and Palmer won`t win.

    On a historical note:

    The ALP was only 2,461 votes from winning a 5th seat in 1974. Had ATL preferencing or GTV been available, the informal vote (65,941/6.0%) may have been lower and that may have helped the ALP win said 5th seat.

  11. Everyone assuming that the ALP will do better in QLD than the last election is hugely mistaken and I can’t wait to prove them wrong come May or March. Come up here to QLD and you’ll see why I am predicting an LNP landslide for Morrison in QLD again. They will also gain Blair and Lilley and are in striking distance in Griffith and Moreton.

  12. Oh man, if the LNP put resources in to go for Griffith it guarantees that Max Chandler-Mather will win it. The only hope for Labor is that the LNP don’t try so that the Labor primary vote can be inflated by traditional red-blue swing voters all voting red, keeping Labor ahead of the Greens at the point of 3 candidates remaining.

    See 2020 QLD state election electorates of McConnel and Cooper for examples of that phenomenon. Greens would have been significantly closer in both seats if the LNP primary vote had gone up rather than down.

  13. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022#comment-755021

    2019 was a high water mark for the LNP in Queensland, just like 2004 was. Morrison`s record in office of evasive problem avoiding (“I don`t hold a hose.”, “It`s not a race.”, etc.) will come back to bite him.

    The One Nation vote has also declined, reducing the flow of preferences to the LNP in the Senate as One Nation will soak up more of them.

  14. Fraser Anning / National Conservatives, bernadi / Conservatives and RUAP are all gone. That means all the alt right votes should flow to One Nation especially if Pauline is up for re election. That being said, covid is a game changer this coming election which could see both lib and lab hemeraging votes based on the disasters in Vic and nsw. Really it’s anyones game

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