Senate – Queensland – Australia 2022

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2022Term due to expire 2025
Matt Canavan (Liberal National) Nita Green (Labor)
Anthony Chisholm (Labor) Susan McDonald (Liberal National)
Pauline Hanson (One Nation) Gerard Rennick (Liberal National)
James McGrath (Liberal National) Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)
Amanda Stoker (Liberal National) Paul Scarr (Liberal National)
Murray Watt (Labor) Larissa Waters (Greens)

History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.

From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.

The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.

The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.

The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.

The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.

In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.

In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.

At the 2016 double dissolution election, Labor retained their four seats and the Greens retained their one seat. Lazarus was defeated, running on his own independent ticket, and the LNP lost their sixth seat, with both seats going to One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts.

Roberts was removed from his seat in 2017 due to his possession of British citizenship when he was elected in 2016. He was replaced by third One Nation candidate Fraser Anning. He fell out with One Nation immediately and served out his term as an independent and as a member of a party he founded.

At the 2019 election, the Liberal National Party retained their two seats and gained a third (for a total of six) while Labor retained only one seat (for a total of three). The Greens retained their seat and Malcolm Roberts regained his seat from Fraser Anning.

2019 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal National 1,128,73038.9+3.62.7231
Labor 654,77422.6-3.81.5797
One Nation297,99410.3+1.10.7189
Greens 288,3209.9+3.10.6956
United Australia Party102,2303.5+3.50.2466
Help End Marijuana Prohibition50,8281.8+1.80.1226
Katter’s Australian Party51,4071.80.00.1240
Animal Justice38,6241.3+0.10.0932
Conservative National Party37,1841.3+1.30.0897
Australian Conservatives29,0961.0+1.00.0702
Democratic Labour28,8111.0+0.40.0695
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers29,3291.0-0.10.0708
Liberal Democrats24,0000.8-2.00.0579
Rise Up Australia22,5290.8+0.60.0544
Hetty Johnston independent group18,3410.6+0.60.0442
Others99,2673.4

Preference flows
Three seats were won on primary votes: two for the LNP and one for Labor.

Let’s look at the final ten candidates competing for the last three seats, including three incumbent senators and two former members of parliament:

  • Gerard Rennick (LNP) – 0.7936 quotas
  • Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.7889
  • Larissa Waters (GRN) – 0.7771
  • Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.6331
  • Clive Palmer (UAP) – 0.2808
  • John Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1726
  • Joy Marriott (KAP) – 0.1659
  • Karagh-Mae Kelly (AJP) – 0.1351
  • Jeff Hodges (SFF) – 0.1121
  • Fraser Anning (CNP) – 0.1099

Anning’s preferences pushed Roberts into the lead.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8318
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8114
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.7807
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6376
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.2916
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.1775
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1770
  • Kelly (AJP) – 0.1380
  • Hodges (SFF) – 0.1198

Shooters preferences flowed most strongly to the KAP, and also One Nation and the LNP.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8526
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8229
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.7857
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6457
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.2980
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.2020
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.1979
  • Kelly (AJP) – 0.1459

Animal Justice preferences favoured the Greens and HEMP, pushing HEMP out of last place and pushing the Greens ahead of the LNP.

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.8656
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.8377
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8354
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6605
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3043
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2224
  • Marriott (KAP) – 0.2053

KAP preferences flowed most strongly to One Nation, but also pushed the LNP back ahead of the Greens:

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.9359
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8752
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.8473
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6826
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3282
  • Jiggens (HEMP) – 0.2385

HEMP preferences favoured the Greens:

  • Roberts (ON) – 0.9698
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9117
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.8974
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7162
  • Palmer (UAP) – 0.3425

Palmer’s preferences elected Roberts and brought the LNP close to the fifth seat:

  • Roberts (ON) – 1.1276
  • Rennick (LNP) – 0.9902
  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9376
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7430

Roberts’ surplus elected Rennick, leaving the final contest as:

  • Waters (GRN) – 0.9579
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7681

Candidates
The three leading Labor candidates are:

  1. Murray Watt
  2. Anthony Chisholm
  3. Edwina Andrew

The three leading Liberal National candidates are:

  1. James McGrath
  2. Matt Canavan
  3. Amanda Stoker

Other lead candidates are:

  • Penny Allman-Payne (Greens)
  • Bess Brennan (New Liberals)
  • Kamala Emanuel (Socialist Alliance)
  • Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
  • Jason Miles (Great Australian Party)
  • Campbell Newman (Liberal Democrats)
  • Drew Pavlou (Democratic Alliance)
  • Mackenzie Severns (Animal Justice)

Assessment
The Queensland senators up for election in 2022 are skewed to the right – the LNP and One Nation hold four seats while Labor holds just two. The left only managed two seats in 2019, but if there is any swing to Labor they should be in a position to win two seats along with one Green.

If this takes place, it means that there is one less seat for the right, and the last seat is likely to be a fierce contest between the LNP’s Amanda Stoker and Pauline Hanson, with Campbell Newman as a dark horse.

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63 COMMENTS

  1. https://www.tallyroom.com.au/aus2022/qldsen2022/comment-page-1#comment-761466

    In by the “Greens won`t win a second seat” you mean that the Greens won`t get both their first two Queensland Senate candidates up at this election, I agree with you. If you are suggesting that the Greens winning a seat at the previous election means they won`t win this time, I disagree, if the Greens do not win this time it will be in spite of them winning last time. The ALP vote is likely to be quite a bit larger, potentially to the point of having a surplus after electing the second ALP candidate and that would be helpful to the Greens` chances through preference flows.

  2. The question really won’t end up being how liked is newman amongst the electorate – but how many liberal voters liked Newman enough to switch their vote from liberal to Newman – the draining of liberal party first preference is what the sixth seat will be fought on.

    @BjA from Ryan – No one is predicting a second greens senator out of the six elected this election – we mean one plus the one we got last election – the greens need to only do s well as last time to get that much. Even achieving quota would be an increase of 50%

  3. Of course I mean 2nd Greens seat in the Senate – of course I didn’t think 2 in the same half Senate election, geez.

    I’m thinking the Labor vote will be stronger this time because that is where any swing will manifest & last time I remember the Greens were desperate to get Larissa Waters re-elected. So I doubt someone brand new would get elected.

    Like I said, I’m prepared to be wrong – if a Green gets up this time, so be it.

  4. If the swing from LNP->ALP is more like 4%, rather than 7 or higher, and Greens basically hover where they are, perhaps even doing very slightly worse, that puts Labor in a position where they’ve got their two senators but have next to nothing left over to give preference wise, while LNP/LDP/UAP/ON still have a ton of votes to dump on each other. In that case Greens could find themselves on a knife edge between eating their cake and eating one of the biggest shit sandwiches in the history of Queensland politics, and have to decide whether to anoint either Stoker or Palmer in Penny’s stead (or exhaust their preferences. or blow my brains out). So that’s not a scenario nobody’s predicting, in fact many people have predicted it in the media and in this very thread. It’s pessimistic for sure but entirely plausible

  5. Pretty myopic move by the LNP to put the only Minister and woman in the top 3 in the least winnable spot.
    McGrath and Canavan aren’t really offering anything to the ticket either. Canavan couldn’t even get back into cabinet after backing the Barnaby coup.
    The majors really need to rethink their Senate strategy, as voters are considering more than just party but personality, especially given the rise of smaller, individual-centred parties elected across the country.

  6. ‘and have to decide whether to anoint either Stoker or Palmer in Penny’s stead’

    Or they finish just ahead of UAP who inevitably give #6 to LNP.

  7. Agree with your point LJ Davidson regarding major parties and their ‘preselection’ for Senate positions. Kristina Kenneally being a minister should have gotten top position and Deb O’Neill, being just a backbencher, relegated to third position or asked to contest a lower house seat (she could easily have sought nomination for her old seat of Robertson).

  8. LJ
    Some libs may vote 1 for Amanda Stoker. She could do a Jim Molan and run an unofficial campaign. It would be nice to see voters skip the loathsome Canavan.

  9. The greens not getting in would be ridiculous –
    – to lose the greens have to not win the last seat
    – the last seat will be decided by the last 25% of the remaining vote that has not been assigned to a quota.
    – Greens started off with just over 10% primary last election – this means their vote cannot be ignored , in order to get the 15% quota required someone else would need to get a higher vote then them – effectively meaning the last 25% is like a lower house seat in the way it acts, eliminate until someone has a majority of 13%.
    – With this in mind it is hard to see how any other party could beat the greens to 13%, given the starting place of 10% , the strong flows from AJP and HEMP, the lack of ambition from Albanese on climate, the strong campaign from the greens and the high exhaust rate, which will make up some of that 25%
    – The only way I can see the greens losing at all is the scenario in which the greens are in contention from the 5th and 6th spots with two other candidates and their preferences are distributed securing the 5th and 6th seats for the other two – I still contend the green vote will be strong enough due to the strong campaign on the ground and also Albanese for this to happen
    -Btw I don’t see greens taking one nations seat in the senate, despite what the apparatchiks are saying – it will be from the coalition or labor again

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