Petrie – Australia 2022

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  1. My seat, It is still shocking how well Howarth did in D-bay. I expect this to safely be retained by the LNP. Labor doesn’t appear to be taking the seat too seriously as they haven’t announced a candidate yet

    I expect Howarth to be reelected with around the same margin as last time it is possible there will be a tiny 1-2% swing against him but Albanese isn’t cutting through up here so don’t expect this one to be a top target for Labor unless Jim Chalmers is leader

    This seat isn’t “safe” naturally is is only safe on paper so I do expect Labor to take this when they do well in QLD again as Labor did win this seat quite handsomely at the state election.

    As for the reasons why last time the LNP did so decisively here I believe Labors candidate cost them votes because of that Alan Sunderland corruption scandal. Sunderland is gone now but Labors policies on Negative gearing and franking credits may still haunt them in this seat

    The election being 10 months away (May 2022 seems likely especially because of the vaccine timetable and COVID surge) this will be an LNP retain. Negligible swing

  2. Daniel
    Morrison’s mantra of seeing full term, is as likely as any of the legendary “three greatest lies” .
    1/ Barnaby joyce – brain explosion, raising issues, giving opinions, belting someone etc.
    2/ vaccination rollout.
    3/ lockdowns
    4/ new strain of virus
    5/ china
    6/ outbreak of inflation, or interest rate rise.
    7/ leadership challenge to Albo
    These are all excellent reasons to go early

  3. Mick Dent is our Labor candidate and I predict he wont make a dent to Howarth’s margin. I am confident in saying Howarth holds until he retires. Dutton is more likely to lose than Howarth based on the margins in the past couple of elections.


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