Page – Australia 2022

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13 COMMENTS

  1. Labor and the Greens seriously dropped the ball here. Janelle Saffin holding the state seat might help a little bit. But both Labor and the Greens need to bring their a-game to get the Nats out here. I don’t see that happening with that margin.

    I don’t see the local Greens getting very excited about campaigning to elect Shoebridge to the Senate, so unless they get a strong candidate (e.g. Sue Higginson, who campaigned alongside Shoebridge in 2019) expect a swing against Greens.

  2. interesting why the swing……. no one can believe the rubbish about Hogan half leaving the national party surely…… maybe it was because Janelle was not the candidate for Labor…… 2% is very marginal 9% isn’t maybe a personal vote for who ever is sitting mp

  3. Regional seat with a visible MP – Labor have no chance here, particularly with their star performer (Saffin) now the State MP.

  4. Mick
    Look at the booth results massive swings in all the country towns . All non green areas particularly. Nat booths didn’t move much. Labor booths often double digits Says a lot.

    Wreathy of Sydney
    Yes. Do you agree with me that Page ought go west to tenterfield, or maybe even Glen Innes.?

  5. wd Page probably should move west because the Greens only do really well (no middle ground either) in the random hippie booths which should be in Richmond character-wise*. Labor don’t do well in regional towns anymore (federal only for the sake of the argument) and they’re better off doing what they did last election; pitching to the small-l-liberals in wealthy inner-city marginals (Higgins, Goldstein, Curtin, Boothby, North Sydney) and also trying to not get even more sucked up by the Greens in the process of moving rightwards ever so slightly.
    *I’m thinking Cawongla, Clunes, Dunoon, Jiggi, absolutely Nimbin, Rosebank and The Channon, which are probably less than 5000 voters in total

  6. Ryan Spencer
    “”Page probably should move west because the Greens only do really well (no middle ground either) in the random hippie booths which should be in Richmond character-wise*. “” Somehow i doubt the AEC will agree that these are arguments are compelling !!
    Have you got a theory why Labor did well in most LIB eats, nearly all safe, NOT necessarily “wealthy inner-city marginals”” !? .> Hint>>> “small-l-liberals”” IS a really stupid typification of the left. i Most on the left expect the right to mirror the left (without varience !!) . This presumption is blind & ignorant. Please don’t make me remind you again. (I might get impatient, & cantankerous !)
    Are The areas in Page you name north of the Richmond river, & part of Lismore LGA ?. Weren’t they part of Richmond previously? Regardless Richmond is at quota so needs no influx. on the other hand Page will need to shed its part of Coffs LGA to Cowper. & will presumably need voters. This is very problematic.
    cheers WD

  7. Labor’s policies clearly seemed to be oriented towards those sorts of people, to the detriment of losing working-class voters. For example, Swan, which contains very wealthy areas and very working-class areas saw swings of 4+% to Labor in the wealthier areas in the west and vice versa to the Liberals in the eastern booths. The fairly small booths that I named are actually east of the Richmond River, all of them in the areas surrounding the Nightcap National Park, and just by looking at the primaries from 2019, looks like a Greens vote overall of about 40%. It seems the boundary is Coopers Creek, which separates a booth like Rockbank from booths like Eureka and Federal, again very left-wing in nature. Heck, in Nimbin, the Animal Justice Party outpolled the Nats comfortably.

  8. Ryan Spencer
    Really interesting about Swan. Re Richmond my north seems to be your east. No matter. Until Ballina was taken from Page . Richmond was historically under quota & the Richmond river is a long & strong boundary so unlikely to change.
    “Labor’s policies clearly seemed to be oriented towards those sorts of people, to the detriment of losing working-class voters. ” i agree with you’re observation. However thats not an opinion about what motivates the voting. That’s what i found/ find more intriguing

  9. Swan was the most bizarre things to happen at the last Commonwealth election. Interesting that the area that went up, state Labor now holds by a 10% margin, nearly winning on primary votes alone (49%). Before that they had never won the seat in 70 years. Maybe that tells us something.

  10. Ryan – you are correct the State seat is South Perth which is the richer area of the Commonwealth Seat of Swan. For Labor to hold South Perth is not right and yet to hold it by 10% something has changed? Is Labor now the party of the rich?

  11. Fun fact: At the Nimbin polling place, the Animal Justice Party outperformed the Nationals (on first preferences).

  12. winediamond the Richmond River isn’t the boundary. Cooper’s Creek is the boundary between Page and Richmond, and at state level, Wilson’s River is the boundary between Ballina and Lismore

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