Senate – New South Wales – Australia 2022

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  1. The only way I see this going is 3-2-1 or 2-3-1 (LNP, ALP, GRN). If the current COVID scenario plays out, the Libs won’t get three seats, but if it does get better, they probably will. The factional preselection (Right) between Keneally and O’Neill will be interesting, because the winner gets top spot and the loser gets the risky third spot. Only resolution excluding the ALP winning three seats is O’Neill going back to Robertson again.

  2. Ryan, Jenny McAllister isn’t guaranteed to get 2nd spot. She could get 3rd spot. There is no rules in the ALP saying a left-faction senator has to be pre-selected in between. Unless you can show me evidence. I can give examples of times a state has had 2 right-faction senators from the ALP.

  3. If NSW has a 2-3-1 result I will be very surprised. For context, I calculated 2019 3PPs of 3.2 quotas for the Coalition, 2.4 for Labor and .89 for the Greens.
    So to get that 3-2-1 to a 2-3-1, we’re talking a half-quota swing from the Coalition to Labor.
    Seven percent. That’s… rather a lot.

  4. Well O’Neill’s got the top spot, and Keneally is running for preselection in Fowler, so we’ll have another preselection contest which is between a great candidate who is representative of the area (Tu Le) and a helicopter candidate from the eastern suburbs. It would be hilarious if Keneally lost that too.

  5. my understanding is right gets spots 1 & 3 and the left 2…….I have no idea how the rights internal processes work……. but spot 3 is dicey….. as greens may win here

  6. Mick, I don’t think Labor are favourite to win a 3rd seat in any state.

    In order to win a 3rd seat Labor in a state the easiest way is to have the state elect 4 “lefties”, defeating the Green is very hard. The mathematics of how votes for a senate group are counted means that it is disadvantageous to be electing multiple candidates from the same group, at least when compared to parties that are in the running to elect the candidate at the top of their group.

    Most states will have 2 Coalition and 2 Labor senators elected instantly on 1st preferences and surpluses. NSW will be one of those states. Remaining in the count will be 3/7ths of ballots (with each full seventh +1 vote being the quota to elect a senator). In the last election the Coalition ticket remainder at this point was 0.70 of a quota, the Greens 0.61, One Nation 0.35, Labor had a tiny 0.09, the remaining micro parties had 1.25 combined but with Group Voting Ticket those votes slosh around and all those tiny parties will not win. The Greens do not need to gain in preferences to get their 0.61 up to a full 1.00, preferences from excluding candidates would delight them, but as long as they remain ahead of other candidates until their are only 7 remaining non-excluded candidates their candidate will be elected no matter how low their vote tally is, Labor in the meantime “wasted” a fair few votes stacking up 2 piles of ballots 1.00 quotas high that they wish they could get back for these shoot outs to come 6th out of the final 7 candidates.

    The Labor party would have needed to take a massive chunk out of the Green vote, maybe 3% of voters in the state (4 in 10 Green voters), to have any chance of having their 3rd candidate get in en lieu of the green. Alternatively Labor could have gained ~6% of votes in the state from other sources, but at that stage you’re almost talking about 4 left wing senators from the state.


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