Senate – New South Wales – Australia 2022

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  1. The only way I see this going is 3-2-1 or 2-3-1 (LNP, ALP, GRN). If the current COVID scenario plays out, the Libs won’t get three seats, but if it does get better, they probably will. The factional preselection (Right) between Keneally and O’Neill will be interesting, because the winner gets top spot and the loser gets the risky third spot. Only resolution excluding the ALP winning three seats is O’Neill going back to Robertson again.

  2. Ryan, Jenny McAllister isn’t guaranteed to get 2nd spot. She could get 3rd spot. There is no rules in the ALP saying a left-faction senator has to be pre-selected in between. Unless you can show me evidence. I can give examples of times a state has had 2 right-faction senators from the ALP.

  3. If NSW has a 2-3-1 result I will be very surprised. For context, I calculated 2019 3PPs of 3.2 quotas for the Coalition, 2.4 for Labor and .89 for the Greens.
    So to get that 3-2-1 to a 2-3-1, we’re talking a half-quota swing from the Coalition to Labor.
    Seven percent. That’s… rather a lot.

  4. Well O’Neill’s got the top spot, and Keneally is running for preselection in Fowler, so we’ll have another preselection contest which is between a great candidate who is representative of the area (Tu Le) and a helicopter candidate from the eastern suburbs. It would be hilarious if Keneally lost that too.

  5. my understanding is right gets spots 1 & 3 and the left 2…….I have no idea how the rights internal processes work……. but spot 3 is dicey….. as greens may win here

  6. Mick, I don’t think Labor are favourite to win a 3rd seat in any state.

    In order to win a 3rd seat Labor in a state the easiest way is to have the state elect 4 “lefties”, defeating the Green is very hard. The mathematics of how votes for a senate group are counted means that it is disadvantageous to be electing multiple candidates from the same group, at least when compared to parties that are in the running to elect the candidate at the top of their group.

    Most states will have 2 Coalition and 2 Labor senators elected instantly on 1st preferences and surpluses. NSW will be one of those states. Remaining in the count will be 3/7ths of ballots (with each full seventh +1 vote being the quota to elect a senator). In the last election the Coalition ticket remainder at this point was 0.70 of a quota, the Greens 0.61, One Nation 0.35, Labor had a tiny 0.09, the remaining micro parties had 1.25 combined but with Group Voting Ticket those votes slosh around and all those tiny parties will not win. The Greens do not need to gain in preferences to get their 0.61 up to a full 1.00, preferences from excluding candidates would delight them, but as long as they remain ahead of other candidates until their are only 7 remaining non-excluded candidates their candidate will be elected no matter how low their vote tally is, Labor in the meantime “wasted” a fair few votes stacking up 2 piles of ballots 1.00 quotas high that they wish they could get back for these shoot outs to come 6th out of the final 7 candidates.

    The Labor party would have needed to take a massive chunk out of the Green vote, maybe 3% of voters in the state (4 in 10 Green voters), to have any chance of having their 3rd candidate get in en lieu of the green. Alternatively Labor could have gained ~6% of votes in the state from other sources, but at that stage you’re almost talking about 4 left wing senators from the state.

  7. Re the senate In NSW: if I wanted to see the Greens take the “final” seat (assuming the Coalition was set to take 3 and Labor 2), would it make any difference to Labor if I voted, say above the line, for Greens and 5 minor parties, then stopped? If I did not preference Labor because I have already put the Greens number 1, does that favour the Coalition in anything but a theoretical way?

  8. If you vote 1 for the Greens, no further preference will harm the Greens chance of winning – your vote will only get passed on if the Greens can’t use it anymore.

    If you don’t give a preference to Labor, then your vote may end up exhausting at a point when the 3rd Labor candidate is competing with someone for the final seat, possibly someone you like less.

    Your vote probably won’t flow because the Greens are unlikely to poll a full quota, so the Greens will either get elected to one of the last seats without any preferences to pass on, but are also strong enough that they’re unlikely to get knocked out until right at the end of the count if they lose. If the Greens lose it will probably be to the 3rd Labor candidate.

    But it is theoretically possible the final race could end up with Labor vs Coalition and your vote, if it hasn’t been fully used up, could end up exhausting, when it could otherwise flow to Labor. Probably that’s most likely if the Greens have a big swing towards them and poll over a quota, or if their vote collapses.

  9. @Ben how’s the current breakdown looking for this:
    – 2 LNP
    – 2 Labor
    And last 2 up for grabs?
    Jason Yatsen-Li who is the former Labor candidate for Bennelong, and is 3rd on the Labor ticket in NSW, has been doing a lot of joint fundraisers with the Labor Candidates for Reid and Banks, tapping into community ties. However, I’m doubtful he can get enough below the line votes to get across the line.
    I do think though he will pick up the 3rd spot, as the Greens vote Federally has not been gaining traction, with it either going back to Labor or going to Independents like Stegall.
    David Shoebridge is quite a qualified candidate for the Greens but I think NSW voting tendencies would want a decisive vote for Labor if the wing is on
    I’m thinking the final spot goes to either One Nation or UAP. Especially, how well Latham did at the NSW election (picking up 2 spots)- is this feasible? Especially if preferences are horded between the minor right wing parties.
    The above comments seem to neglect the fact that when there is a swing to a Centre-Left government, the right normally splits and this creates a vacuum for minor right wing parties like One Nation, Shooters, CDP, Family First, etc. to then spring up.
    So that would mean:
    – 3 x ALP
    – 2 x LNP
    – 1 x PHON

  10. UAP/ON will get up for sure imo. Whether the Greens do is harder to say, but I’m optimistic. Labor really would have to do fantastically well, and the Greens would need to bomb pretty hard- they collect a lot more micro-party preferences in NSW than they do in Queensland. It’d be quite a turnaround after the gains they just made in the locals.

  11. The big question is whether the UAP and ON do a preference swap – if they do, then they have a damn good chance of one of them getting a seat – especially if you add the LDP to the mix. Does the Clive / Campbell love in extend beyond Queensland? 2 Lib, 2 ALP, 1 Green and 1 from the populist right seems a definite possibility. And this could happen across the country.

  12. Has Labor shown its hand already conceding it will only be able to win a maximum of 2 Senate seats in NSW?
    Given that its initial 3rd listed candidate, Kristina Keneally, is now running for the seat of Fowler, and her replacement on the ticket, Jason Yat-Sen Li, has now vacated this spot to run for the state seat of Strathfield.
    Not a very good look.
    Apparently polling in NSW for Labor is still pretty low (not that LNP vote is that much higher), and Albanese has not had too much progress in improving name recognition and repairing Labor brand. I think for a start, he can probably get rid of that oversized akubra he insists on wearing in press conferences (even when he is in metropolitan Sydney)

  13. I think the reason Labor is likely to only get 2 seats is because of the Greens rather than the Coalition. It’s a tall order for Labor to get three quotas before the Greens get one (or for Labor + Greens to get four of six seats).

  14. It’s very difficult for Labor to get 3 seats in most states due to how strong the Greens vote is. However, the Coalition getting 3 seats is pretty normal as there aren’t any minor right-wing parties that have a vote as strong as the Greens (except for One Nation in Queensland).


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