Macarthur – Australia 2022

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  1. Honest question. Who would have won this in 2007 and 2010 on the current boundaries?

    I have nothing to say about this seat except that Dr Freelander is under no threat. Negligible swing. The Campbelltown area will continue to grow and could become even safer for Labor in future providing it retains Campbelltown

  2. Daniel
    Freelander is just a “caretaker”MP. Absolutely useless. Tragically he has occupied a very safe seat for 2 terms. If they had to stick KK someplace why not here ? . Then Tu Le could have had Fowler. Surely that would have been a better outcome ?
    Labor would have won in 2007 2010 because the seat is 80% old Werriwa. This will reverse entirely in the next redistribution without question. Impossible for Macarthur to retain much if any of Campbelltown, as it will be part of Werriwa again. Id expect the labor margin for Werriwa to rise to 10-14% as a consequence.
    Ben’s view will be interesting

  3. The data shows that there’s a deficit in Sydney and an excess in Rural NSW (especially the coast), so yes I’d expect the changes from last time to be largely reversed at the next redistribution, as the Sydney seats expand outwards. I’d strongly expect Macarthur to return to being a Camden/Wollondilly based seat, and give most of Campbelltown back to Werriwa (and becoming a much more Liberal seat).

  4. Yes, agree Mark Mulcair that Macarthur will lose its Campbelltown component and return to being a peri-urban seat based around Camden and the outer reaches of the Sydney metropolitan area. All other districts in South-West Sydney (Werriwa, Fowler, McMahon and Blaxland) are more than 5% under quota and will need to gain electors at the next redistribution.

  5. Correction Werriwa is actually 6-7% over quota, but the other three are all under quota. This is similar to the situation for NSW state districts (those around Liverpool, Fairfield and Bankstown were under quota whilst those in the Camden and Campbelltown areas were over quota), which led to the abolition of Lakemba and creation of Leppington to balance elector numbers.

  6. Sydney has about half a seat too many and the Hunter / North Coast has half a seat too few. That is the big conundrum of the next redistribution – especially when there are lots of natural and historical barriers to an easy resolution.

  7. Redistributed, have you checked the latest AEC enrolment statistics? They show Hunter and Paterson now 10% over quota, also Cowper is 10% over quota. Lyne is 6% over quota and Whitlam is 7% over quota. That is almost 50% of a district over in the Hunter, North Coast and Illawarra regions.

  8. Yoh An
    Hunter, Paterson, Lyne, Newcastle and Cowper are between them now about 45% over quota. Of the coastal seats north of the Hawkesbury only Robertson is under quota – and not by much.
    Whitlam and Gilmore between them are about 17% over quota. However in the south of NSW, there are more ways to carve up the seats than in the north as there have been historically more linkages between the coast and the tableland.
    In Sydney – Warringah, Mackellar, North Sydney, Bradfield and Berowra are 30% below quota. And the combination of Cook, Hughes, Banks, Barton and Blaxland are also 30% below.
    The next redistribution will need to undertake some pretty radical surgery to get things sorted.

  9. I saw on the enrolment figures Macquarie is 7% under quota. Perhaps it could expand north, taking in some of the lower Hunter Valley around Putty

  10. I saw on the enrolment figures Macquarie is 7% under quota. Perhaps it could expand north, taking in some of the lower Hunter Valley around Putty

  11. You are right redistributed, half a seat too many means the area is 50% under quota. The only ‘sensible’ crossings between the Sydney metropolitan area and its surroundings in the northern end are the lower Hawkesbury River (Wisemans Ferry end) and possibly through the upper Blue Mountains (Bells Line of Road). Perhaps the best alignment may be Macquarie gaining areas up to Lithgow (since Calare is over quota). Then Berowra expands outwards into Colo and rural parts of the Central Coast, with its urban end around Pennant Hills being used to top up Bradfield.


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