Lingiari – Australia 2022

ALP 5.5%

Incumbent MP
Warren Snowdon, since 2001. Previously Member for Northern Territory 1987-1996, 1998-2001.

Geography
Lingiari covers the vast majority of the Northern Territory, with the exception of Darwin and Palmerston. The seat covers Katherine and Alice Springs, as well as many indigenous communities throughout the Territory.

History
The Northern Territory first elected a Member of the House of Representatives in 1922, but this person was only given full voting rights in 1968.

The seat was held by the Country Party and then the Country Liberal Party from then until 1983, before Labor and then the CLP each held the seat for one term, before Warren Snowdon won the seat for the ALP in 1987. Snowdon lost the seat for one term in 1996 before being returned for one more term in 1998.

The 2000 redistribution saw the Northern Territory gain a second seat for the first time, and the seats of Solomon, covering Darwin and Palmerston, and Lingiari, covering the rest, were created.

Warren Snowdon shifted to the new seat of Lingiari in 2001, and has held the seat ever since.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Warren Snowdon is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Lingiari is a marginal Labor seat. The electorate leaned substantially further towards Labor than the other NT electorate up until 2013, but since then it has only been slightly more pro-Labor than Solomon.

The absence of Warren Snowdon, who has contested this seat or its predecessor at every election since 1987, may open up the space for the CLP to win this seat for the first time.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Warren Snowdon Labor 21,69844.8+5.0
Jacinta Price Country Liberal 17,87536.9+5.0
George Hanna Greens 3,9918.2+0.5
Hamish MacfarlaneIndependent2,1234.4+4.4
Regina McCarthyRise Up Australia1,3802.8-0.6
Daniel HodgsonUnited Australia Party1,3672.8+2.8
Informal2,5755.0-2.8

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Warren Snowdon Labor 26,86355.5-2.7
Jacinta Price Country Liberal 21,57144.5+2.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. There are clusters of booths in the Alice Springs area, in Katherine and in areas surrounding Darwin, although Darwin itself is in the neighbouring seat of Solomon.

There were no ordinary election-day booths outside of these three urban centres, but 30% of the total vote was cast through remote voting teams, with another 36% cast at pre-poll. These two voting groups overshadowed the number of votes cast at ordinary election-day booths in urban areas.

Labor narrowly won the booths in Alice Springs (50.4%) while the CLP won 53.5% in Katherine and 59.9% in the Darwin surrounds. Labor absolutely dominated the remote vote, with 76.4% of the two-party-preferred vote. The CLP won 55.4% in the pre-poll vote, which was also focused on the major urban centres.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Alice Springs14.350.45,35711.1
Darwin Surrounds8.040.15,21010.8
Katherine7.846.51,3282.7
Pre-poll9.244.617,76136.7
Remote5.376.414,78030.5
Other votes7.156.23,9988.3

Election results in Lingiari at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Country Liberal Party.

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25 COMMENTS

  1. This seat might be a bit vulnerable for Labor with long term member Warren Snowdon departing at the next election. Former Deputy Chief Minister of the Northern Territory Marion Scrymgour is the Labor candidate. Scrymgour is a political talent no question about it but in the past she has shown to be quite volatile too. She did quit the Labor party in 2009 as a member of the Legislative Assembly in Northern Territory and became a independent but she eventually region the party again in her tenure. She was also very outspoken against the decision to parachute former athlete Nova Peris as a federal senator who was not a member of the Labor party. But to be fair though she was quite right, and her views were no different to the general feeling in the rank and file in the Northern Territory at the time. I still think with the margin Labor will be favorites to retain.

  2. More vulnerable than the margin suggests. CLP running Mayor of Alice Springs; they know they need to bump up their numbers there. Still, I agree with you PN – Labor should hold this, likely with a swing against them.

  3. Wreathy of Sydney
    Agreed. No chance for the CLP. here. Maybe next election with the whole NT ? That is if Scrymgour’s recidivist tendencies don’t resurface, as a defector to Independence !?

    Political Nightwatchman
    Warren Snowdon was/is appalling, & should never have been allowed back in 1998. Must i repost my comments from 2019 !!?

  4. Cant help myself!!

    winediamond May 8, 2018 at 9:28 am
    It is worth reminding everyone that Snowdon once used a commonwealth, or private charter plane to get to some dog races, at public expense. For years afterwards, when he rose to speak (in parliament ). the libs would start howling (like dogs)!. Thus he has learnt my everlasting contempt. The contrast with Bronwyn’s helicopter ride is quite extraordinary ! ( simply in that no one will ever forget THAT one !).

    Having said all that, it would be good if Snowdon runs again because if he retires, he will effectively get a pay rise. That wonderful defined benefit Parliamentary Superannuation in play again.

    Just to remind everyone that no one called out Green GRUB George Hanna, for the ” COCONUT drinking from a COCONUT ” Racism SLUR. .Not Snowdon or any of those good, & pure paragons of (female) virtue from the left. Those cowards did SQUAT & said “we didn’t know”.

    winediamond May 14, 2019 at 5:35 pm
    If Price wins this she should immediately thank scumbag George Hanna for his “Coconut” insult. I don’t think anything could have helped her more. All the pissweak, posturing snowflake women MP’s ought watch (jacinta) & learn.

  5. The new Voter ID laws that Morrison (and PHON) want to pass have been observed by many to be disenfranchising for Aboriginal voters. Given that Snowdon is outgoing, and this seat will become even more vulnerable for the ALP, the cynic in me wonders whether these laws intend to suppress the Aboriginal vote in Lingiari to try to flip it.

    Antony Green observed in his analysis of the Daly by-election that the win for Labor was in part due to an increased turnout of Indigenous voters. This law would suppress that vote for the federal election.

  6. Sprout
    So what are you suggesting ?
    That aboriginal voters should be exempt from the new ID voter laws on some peculiar, or “special’ basis?
    That aboriginal voters may have more difficulty in complying with these new laws ?
    That these laws were specially conceived to” intend to suppress the Aboriginal vote in Lingiari to try to flip it”.? Are you serious ? Is that really the likely motivation ?

    The new Voter ID laws that Morrison (and PHON) are so laughably generous IMV, that any objections are absurd. More onerous laws exist in other jurisdictions & if i had my way no photo ID = No VOTE period, end of story. It is hardly much of an ask.

    IMV these new laws will have no noticeable effect, & Lingiari is still a Labor hold

  7. WD
    So no photo, no vote. Where does that leave my elderly mother who no longer has a drivers licence or passport? So she is no longer entitled to vote? You advocate taking the vote away from her – that would be one less vote for the Coalition!!!
    The whole voter ID is a very large hammer to smash a very small or even non- existent walnut. If there is a very close election, there is the court of disputed returns to ascertain if there were any shenanigans.

  8. Redistributed
    Calm down !. Your Mum surely has an expired passport, or licence ?.
    I Repeat, It is hardly much of an ask. In case you missed it, the proposed laws are very lax, hence my contrast.
    “If there is a very close election, there is the court of disputed returns to ascertain if there were any shenanigans.” Great -if it happens. HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN MANY CLOSE ELECTIONS , & no court actions. Better to simply enact reforms to & deal with the issue . The pretence that there simply is no issue is patently false.

  9. I can’t for the life of me imagine politicians proposing solutions in search of problems for cynically motivated electoral reasons. Just doesn’t happen, ever

  10. Furtive Lawngnome
    “The pretence that there simply is no issue is patently false”.
    What is going on today? Why am i repeating myself ? ……!

  11. WD

    I was not suggesting that Indigenous Australians should be exempt, I was suggesting that we should not have the laws at all. It is a fact that Aboriginal people, as well as people who are homeless, or elderly, will have more trouble complying with these laws. The declaration vote form is long and for people with poor english, it leaves more room for error and therefore the greater possibility for unintended informal voting.

    I was also not saying that the laws were introduced for the sole reason of winning Lingiari. Simply that Lingiari would without a doubt be the seat most influenced by them, and that the Coalition must know that this would work in their favour.

    What I was really wondering about was whether the laws would have an impact on the outcome of the seat, given that the Indigenous vote may be suppressed.

  12. Furtive Lawngnome
    NOT as “Turgid” as always !
    Sprout
    Did i sound confused about what you were saying ?
    i just clearly disagree with you entirely.
    Let’s put the electoral system to the” SIR RICHARD BRANSON test” -Everything is great, perfect nothing to be improved !!??.
    Well if YOU are right then nothing will change for the better.

    There will still be multiple voting, & so on. The disadvantaged voter turnout will fall etc. I’d be surprised if the vast human resources on the left allow that to happen.
    IMO Lingiari will be less affected than the ethnic seats in SYD, & Melbourne. Just my view
    cheers wd

  13. Forcing certain people into declaration votes is itself tantamount to voter suppression.

    It’s an extra chance for accidental informality or electoral official error striking a ballot in error. We all know exactly what is being proposed. Cynically putting more homeless people, more aborigional people, etc. through the hoop of a declaration vote while putting no professional white people with a drivers license through the same will have some small political impact. Sure rarely enough to flip an electorate or a parliamentary balance, but not no chance of doing that.

    Anyone who has scrutineered knows that people make dumb errors on the ballot paper, requiring a huge number of people to correctly filled out name, signature, and date on a declaration while they are in a hurry will inevitably lead to more votes not being counted.

    This law would also be a foot in the door. I think we should try as hard as possible to avoid the USA model of highly imbalanced ease of voting between demographics. If this law passes maybe in 5 years the declaration forms are 5 times as long, and/or the accredited documentation to avoid the declaration shrinks etc.

  14. First Nations turnout rates have been dropping over the last few years, likely because of greater feelings of disenfranchisement from Australian politics.
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/aboriginal-voter-turnout-at-record-lows/444ebbab-03f3-415a-8c7c-231fc6a7cea6
    We cannot, and I repeat cannot, be lax on First Nations turnout rates when we live in a liberal democracy with compulsory voting laws. Voter ID laws are a solution to a problem that doesn’t exist, especially when double voting is easily prosecutable.
    This is simply a power play by the LNP and their ideological scallywags in One Nation trying to stop people with low levels of photo ID (regional people, FN people, people who don’t speak English) from being able to vote.
    On Lingiari, I highly doubt that Labor will lose. They’ve picked a high-profile FN woman in Marion Scrymgour who will win the seat fairly easily IMO.

  15. It’s also because of the postal system getting worse, votes not arriving in time.

    To WineDiamond, I have never had either a passport or a driver’s licence. I do have a Proof of Age card, but there’s plenty of people out there who don’t even have that. It took me years to apply, many others have never needed one either. If you’re not into clubbing, you don’t have the same need as a young adult to prove your age, so it’s easy to go for years without feeling the need to apply for one. The worry with this law is that it’s just the first step. That bit by bit, less ID will be accepted over time.

  16. Lot of right-wingers running in this seat. Will fracture the vote but I suspect also give the CLP a leg up on preferences.

    I live in the Territory and know a lot of progressives here who are more worried about Labor losing Lingiari than they are about Solomon. Labor’s been running a strong campaign though, and the Greens candidate being based in Alice should help. (Again, very Green bias here.)

  17. Morrison and Wong both in Alice Springs today with Lingiari candidates and policy announcements. The majors are taking Lingiari seriously as a battleground.

  18. One thing I keep hearing is regardless of a national Lanor swing that this seat is in play for the CLP due to a combination of Snowden going, Gunner’s scandal and the CLP ground game being strengthened largle yoff the back of Price’s foundational work last election.

  19. LNP insider your sources are correct for two out of three. Lingiari is definitely in play, because of Snowden going and the unpopular NT Labor government.

    However, Jacinta, despite her great popularity with Sky After Dark viewers, was very unpopular in the communities. The 2019 results in the communities with Jacinta were actually worse than the CLP’s two previous efforts in Lingiari. The CLP went backwards when Jacinta was the Lingiari candidate.

    If the bush votes improve in 2022, it is because Jacinta isn’t the candidate.

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