Gilmore – Australia 2022

ALP 2.6%

Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.

History

Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.

Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.

Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.

In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.

Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.

Candidates

Assessment
Gilmore is a very marginal seat that has usually gone with the Liberal Party, but Phillips should benefit from her new incumbency.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 38,972 36.2 -3.0
Warren Mundine Liberal 31,427 29.2 -16.1
Katrina Hodgkinson Nationals 13,462 12.5 +12.5
Carmel Mary Mccallum Greens 10,740 10.0 -0.5
Grant Schultz Independent 7,585 7.0 +7.0
Milton Leslight United Australia Party 3,638 3.4 +3.4
Serah Kolukulapally Christian Democratic Party 1,853 1.7 -3.3
Informal 5,970 5.3 +1.1

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 56,652 52.6 +3.3
Warren Mundine Liberal 51,025 47.4 -3.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.

The ALP won the election-day vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in Kiama to 57.8% in Jervis Bay. Labor won the pre-poll vote more narrowly and lost the other votes (including postal votes) narrowly.

Voter group GRN prim NAT prim ALP 2PP Total votes % of votes
Nowra 10.5 16.4 55.4 16,709 15.5
Batemans Bay 10.8 10.2 55.0 9,926 9.2
Jervis Bay 9.8 12.1 57.8 9,080 8.4
Kiama 14.7 10.4 53.5 7,405 6.9
Ulladulla 10.2 11.5 54.7 6,844 6.4
Pre-poll 8.6 12.7 50.3 47,787 44.4
Other votes 11.3 10.1 49.7 9,926 9.2

Election results in Gilmore at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.

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110 COMMENTS

  1. Several reasons for the greens surge in the Northern Illawarra. Expect it to be a long term trend. In summary:

    There’s an emerging affluence in the northern suburbs, as such overtime they’re deserting Labor – catalysed by the retiring of Sharon Bird. They didn’t go Liberal for a couple reasons, one the candidate and recourses were minimal. Secondly, there is still strong progressive left wing presence up there, with many university based and health care professionals living in the area, combined with a general NIMBYism. This has resulted in a strong Green result.

    Teals might be a threat, but I’m not convinced they’re competitive here due to the demographic advantages for progressive politics in the area.

  2. Andrew Constance has been endorsed as the Liberal candidate for the seat of Gilmore in 2025 baring any major redistribution.

  3. @Daniel T he should be able to win this time or come in as a Senator if there’s a casual vacancy. Either way he’ll be in the next Parliament. He’ll be a Cabinet minister too. Maybe even leader one day.

  4. Might be a nice, well-liked guy but he now has a reputation as a “seat shopper”. He tried to get into the Senate twice since he lost in 2022, albeit narrowly. I think his best shot was in 2022 when he was fresher in people’s minds.

    A favourable redistribution or a stuff-up by Albo or Fiona Phillips may hand him this seat.

  5. Constance win here. Only went Labor due to a mistep by Morrison trying to parachute an unknown Mundine in 2019 Mundine would probably won in 2025 if he ran. Mundine will probably be running sooner or later somewhere

  6. @John he’ll probably run as a Senator though or to fill a Senate vacancy at least. Where does he live (like what suburb in what electorate)?

  7. @Nether Portal
    For the voice referendum, he voted at a joint NSYD and Bradfield based on se ABC footage (I used that booth on a different day). Assuming Nsyd abolition, he would almost certainly be in Bradfield by enrolment.

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