Gilmore – Australia 2022

ALP 2.6%

Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.

History

Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.

Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.

Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.

In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.

Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.

Candidates

Assessment
Gilmore is a very marginal seat that has usually gone with the Liberal Party, but Phillips should benefit from her new incumbency.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 38,97236.2-3.0
Warren Mundine Liberal 31,42729.2-16.1
Katrina Hodgkinson Nationals 13,46212.5+12.5
Carmel Mary Mccallum Greens 10,74010.0-0.5
Grant SchultzIndependent7,5857.0+7.0
Milton LeslightUnited Australia Party3,6383.4+3.4
Serah KolukulapallyChristian Democratic Party1,8531.7-3.3
Informal5,9705.3+1.1

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 56,65252.6+3.3
Warren Mundine Liberal 51,02547.4-3.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.

The ALP won the election-day vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in Kiama to 57.8% in Jervis Bay. Labor won the pre-poll vote more narrowly and lost the other votes (including postal votes) narrowly.

Voter groupGRN primNAT primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Nowra10.516.455.416,70915.5
Batemans Bay10.810.255.09,9269.2
Jervis Bay9.812.157.89,0808.4
Kiama14.710.453.57,4056.9
Ulladulla10.211.554.76,8446.4
Pre-poll8.612.750.347,78744.4
Other votes11.310.149.79,9269.2

Election results in Gilmore at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.

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67 COMMENTS

  1. I’m surprised Amanda Findley isn’t running for Greens. Incumbent Mayors are eligible for federal elections (McBain was the incumbent Bega Valley mayor).

    Carmel McCallum is a competent candidate, who performed quite well in a Sky News forum here in 2019. But with Findley’s profile, and having recently been reelected, she could guarantee that Liberals have no chance.

    I’m still tipping a Labor retain based on local government results and Labor’s strength on the coast in the Eden Monaro and Bega byelections.

  2. Ahh John, but Mr Shoebridge running for the Senate will create a casual vacancy in the NSW Upper House, won’t it? A shame and disservice to the Shoalhaven people who elected her if she was to fill that spot, but a potential outcome.

  3. It’s not a potential outcome. The Greens have already chosen Shoebridge’s successor, and it’s Sue Higginson. As far as I can tell Amanda Findley hasn’t run for a state upper house seat since 2009. You’re just making stuff up.

  4. A few weeks ago I would have given Gilmore to Andrew Constance no questions asked. But Labor is at a very high tide right now in NSW. No forgone conclusion but think Constance may struggle to overcome an underlying groundswell going against the Coalition. Thoughts?

  5. yeah, tighter now…but the ‘economic uncertainty’ debate which will now dominate up to 21st will get him over the line…would think constance is milking his post-fires anti-ScoMo chest-poking like crazy on the ground, and keeping the PM away…

  6. Constance will lose. his state seat did not overlap any more than 30% of Gilmore and his colleague state mp for Kiama suspended from.the state parliament by his own side.

  7. Given the remaining votes are postals all favouring the Liberals, Constance might get in and we might get a decent moderate MP. Shame Frydenberg was defeated though, even as a Liberal I feel Dutton would be bad.

  8. I knew the Libs would win at least one seat from Labor but didn’t expect it to be this one.

    Anyone know how/why Andrew Constance bucked the national trend and won?

  9. Not called yet but looks very likely to win. Constance was a reasonably popular challenger. Although if he does win the redistribution may push this into Bega Valley which would be the end of his career.

  10. Analysing the results further there has apparently been an issue with the preferences in one booth – this will be exceptionally close.

  11. Votante, not only is Andrew Constance a moderate but he was quite active in his local community whilst serving as a state MP, particularly helping out with the bushfire recovery effort in 2020.

  12. This is still extremely close on the count and could go either way. Though now Kevin Bonham points out an error on the booth counting in Gerringong which would mean Constance is behind if corrected.

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/05/2022-house-of-reps-summary-page-and.html

    “There is no way Constance is getting nearly 80% of preferences in a substantial booth with a decent sized Greens vote. It seems the numbers (247 and 69) have been credited to Gilmore and Phillips the wrong way round and in fact, Constance’s lead is not 360 votes; it’s 4.

    [Edit: And Constance’s lead has dropped another 54, so he is effectively now behind.]”

  13. Yes that is obvious- -or int might just be that greens preferences have been wrongly allocated.

    How can this happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Either way it makes the seat much more possible for Labor

  14. My latest projection has Labor winning by 158 votes, depends on the remaining postals, declaration pre-polls and absent votes.

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