Gilmore – Australia 2022

ALP 2.6%

Incumbent MP
Fiona Phillips, since 2019.

Geography
Gilmore covers parts of the south coast and the southern Illawarra. This includes the entirety of the City of Shoalhaven and Kiama LGA, and northern parts of the Eurobodalla council area. The southernmost significant settlement is Moruya.

History

Gilmore was created in 1984 when the House of Representatives was expanded in 1984. The seat was first held by the National Party’s John Sharp until 1993, when he moved to the nearby seat of Hume. Sharp served in the first Howard cabinet until he resigned over the travel rorts affair in 1997.

The seat was won by the ALP’s Peter Knott in 1993, and he was defeated by Joanna Gash of the Liberal Party in 1996. The  seat was considered marginal after the 1996 and 1998 elections, but a large swing in 2001 saw Gash hold the seat by a much larger margin. This was cut back to a margin of about 4% in 2007.

Gilmore’s boundaries were redrawn before the 2010 election, making the seat a notional Labor seat. Gash gained a 5.7% swing.

Gash announced her impending retirement in 2012, and was elected as the directly-elected Mayor of Shoalhaven.

In 2013, Gash was succeeded by Liberal candidate Ann Sudmalis, who won despite a 2.7% swing to Labor. Sudmalis suffered a further 3% swing in 2016, but narrowly won a second term.

Sudmalis retired in 2019, and a contentious Liberal preselection resulted in the imposition of a candidate, and the leading preselection candidate running as an independent. A former state minister also ran as a Nationals candidate. Labor candidate Fiona Phillips defeated this crowded conservative field.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Gilmore is a very marginal seat that has usually gone with the Liberal Party, but Phillips should benefit from her new incumbency.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 38,97236.2-3.0
Warren Mundine Liberal 31,42729.2-16.1
Katrina Hodgkinson Nationals 13,46212.5+12.5
Carmel Mary Mccallum Greens 10,74010.0-0.5
Grant SchultzIndependent7,5857.0+7.0
Milton LeslightUnited Australia Party3,6383.4+3.4
Serah KolukulapallyChristian Democratic Party1,8531.7-3.3
Informal5,9705.3+1.1

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Fiona Phillips Labor 56,65252.6+3.3
Warren Mundine Liberal 51,02547.4-3.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Gilmore have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Eurobodalla and Kiama council areas have been grouped along council boundaries. Those polling places in Shoalhaven have been divided in three. From north to south these are: Nowra, Jervis Bay and Ulladulla.

The ALP won the election-day vote in all five areas, ranging from 53.5% of the two-party-preferred vote in Kiama to 57.8% in Jervis Bay. Labor won the pre-poll vote more narrowly and lost the other votes (including postal votes) narrowly.

Voter groupGRN primNAT primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Nowra10.516.455.416,70915.5
Batemans Bay10.810.255.09,9269.2
Jervis Bay9.812.157.89,0808.4
Kiama14.710.453.57,4056.9
Ulladulla10.211.554.76,8446.4
Pre-poll8.612.750.347,78744.4
Other votes11.310.149.79,9269.2

Election results in Gilmore at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party, the Nationals and the Greens.

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12 COMMENTS

  1. I thought this would be a Liberal gain on the line of the large retiree population here thinking “Morrison saved us from COVID” but now with the botched vaccine rollout I am not as sure.

  2. Marko
    Much as it’s attractive to blame Morrison for just about everything,”the botched vaccine rollout ” is really out there. Clearly (the real reason is) it’s just good ole aussie ambivalence, & resistance to control !!

    This seat’s result stands as some kind of monument to regional parochialism. Or if you, like a salutary warning to all parties about “parachute candidates”. It’s pretty obvious that if Grant (Sergeant !) Schultz had held the Lib nomination Fiona Phillips wouldn’t have won. The Nets fielding a candidate din’t help either.
    I’d expect Philips to gain a solid sophomore swing of as much as 2%.

    Phillips is a typical “Emily’s Lister” (female obviously) Labor MP. As such she illustrates perfectly the limitations, liabilities, & flaws of such posturing, & perfectionism. If the labor party operatives set out to deliberately,& cynically exploit this policy, they couldn’t do it better. If they understood the enneagram they couldn’t manipulate nominations better !!. Apart from the the odd showy “star” they choose compliant Type 9s
    If i were a female i’d probably be convinced it’s all some dark, evil, male powerbroker strategy to entrench the status quo.!! Unfortunately no one in the Labor Party is that bright, let alone awake!

    As a Peacemaker/Mediator type 9 Phillips will steadily, if not obsessively continue on. She will not challenge the power brokers, aspire to higher office, harbour ambitions or make much noise. Unless of course whats happening in Patterson, to Merryl Swanston, starts happening to her. Can’t see that happening.

  3. Labor will not hold Gilmore. They got lucky last time because the Liberal party put Mundine in place. Not only will they lose Gilmore but this won’t even be close

    6-7% swing to the Liberal party based on COVID, voters here will reward Morrison and Berejiklian for keeping them safe.

    What on earth has the sitting member done for the electorate for the past 3 years? I know someone who lives here and they said they heard nothing or saw nothing from her!

  4. LAB benefited in this seat from a 5-way split of the CR-RW Vote (if you include the Ind, UAP and CDP). If this doesn’t happen, then LIB should have won this seat.

    This is a must win now for LIB, if they are to prevent the sophomore surge taking control of the seat.

  5. Daniel
    I’d be really surprised if Phillips has stopped campaigning in Gilmore . She had 2 really solid go’s to win 2nd time. What do you expect of an opposition backbencher, other than to try to convince voters that she is a good, & decent person?. Gilmore had their chance to elect a very influential representative . They buggered it up !. They could have backed Keating’s horse -“self interest”!!. That nag didn’t win in Gilmore !

    Do really see a swing of 6-7% ? That is massive.

    Hwkeye
    Yep everyone agrees about 2019. The next redistribution will push Gilmore south & Add 15-20000 mostly labor voters. so Gilmore will be Labor for some time.
    cheers WD

  6. Gilmore is a fair way over quota now. The southern areas could be moved to Eden Monaro which would allow E-M to lose the areas west of the Great Divide (Tumut and Tumbarumba). That would benefit the Libs in Gilmore and the ALP in E-M. And beyond that, help fix the abomination that is Hume.

  7. Redistributed
    True. However i don’t see how both things can be done. The AEC has repeatedly rejected the (lib) contrivance of putting the highlands into Gilmore, as with Campbelltown with Cunningham. They do like closing options, & then humiliating themselves by randomly adopting the same>>>!

    IF whitlam loses the Highlands to Hume, it will take more than Kiama LGA to balance. therefore Gilmore would have to move further south. Ultimately E-M will probably take Goulburn from Hume, & lose the west. THE end result will benefit Labor in Gilmore, & not in E-M. Either way the Hume issue will need to be addressed. Though i would add that all affected seats would become more “Compact”& future movements would have more inbuilt flexibility. IOW the AEC might not get itself in such an F….G MESS !

  8. I see Labor holding on here. It seems like the main Liberal voting demographics on the coast are trending Labor. I don’t think the demographics of the Eden Monaro byelection swings can be entirely attributed to McBain’s local popularity.

    Eden Monaro has LNP trending inland towns areas to make up for it, but I could see Gilmore maybe even becoming a safe Labor seat.

  9. country seats are very loyal to sitting members what ever their party…… more so those who have multiple attempts before victory……. think Eden Monaro Lyons in wa…..at state level…… Albany, Collie- preston etc
    of Forgot….. Macquarie although does not fit exactly

  10. This seat shouldn’t even be contested by the Liberals. They don’t care about the regional communities here. I hope Katrina and the Nats contest again, the Libs and Labor are failed brand names

  11. My local seat. Fiona Phillipps is definitely visible in the Northern Part of the Electorate and considering she hails from the Centre/South of the Electorate, I would expect that is her working on recognition in the areas she is less well known. Last election was an absolute disaster for parties of the Right – you would expect they have learned from 3 cornered contests and the Libs have learned not to air their dirty laundry in public view – with the factional fighting and imposition of an outsider. If the Libs can find a well regarded local candidate this would be close. There was expectation that Gareth Ward would move to Federal Politics and he would have regained the seat for the Libs in a canter. Not so now and not sure who is coming to fill that gap. I expect the work Phillips has put in, as well as the poorly organised opposition will see her hold this seat.

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