Dickson – Australia 2022

LNP 4.6%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.

Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.

History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.

Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.

Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.

Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since.

Dutton barely held on to his seat in 2007, but increased his majority in 2010 and 2013. Dutton served as a junior minister in the final years of the Howard government and has served as a senior minister in the Coalition government since 2013.

Candidates

  • Alan Buchbach (Independent)
  • Lloyd Russell (Liberal Democrats)
  • Peter Dutton (Liberal National)
  • Thor Prohaska (Independent)
  • Tamera Gibson (One Nation)
  • Alina Ward (United Australia)
  • Ali France (Labor)
  • Vinnie Batten (Greens)
  • Assessment
    Dickson has never been particularly safe for Peter Dutton – the seat has swung between a razor-thin margin and something just a little bit safer, which is where the seat is now, but the seat is well within reach if there is a swing to Labor in south-east Queensland.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Peter Dutton Liberal National 44,52845.9+1.2
    Ali France Labor 30,37031.3-3.7
    Benedict Coyne Greens 9,67510.0+0.1
    Carrol HalliwellOne Nation5,0225.2+5.2
    Thor ProhaskaIndependent2,3022.4-1.0
    Steve AustinUnited Australia Party2,1762.2+2.2
    Maureen BrohmanAnimal Justice1,8311.9+1.9
    Richelle SimpsonConservative National Party1,0441.1+1.1
    Informal4,4164.4+1.0

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
    Peter Dutton Liberal National 52,96854.6+3.0
    Ali France Labor 43,98045.4-3.0

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the south-east (54.8%) and the west (56.6%), while Labor won 52.4% in the north-east.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    North-East9.947.620,64821.3
    South-East11.954.818,62419.2
    West16.056.65,9246.1
    Pre-poll8.256.334,95136.1
    Other votes9.558.916,80117.3

    Election results in Dickson at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party and Labor.

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    141 COMMENTS

    1. You could literally just list the entire voting record itself as the answer to that question. It’s appalling and inhumane.

      On one hand he votes against building facilities to protect Australians from Covid, which would have saved massive lockdowns, but he votes for the inhumane detention of some of the world’s most vulnerable people, who are not guilty of anything under international law.

      On one hand he votes against any form of restrictions in the harmful tobacco and gambling industries, but then votes for the government to interfere with whether or not loving couples have a right to marry.

      He votes against investing in the world’s fastest growing energy sector which would provide enormous economic benefits and create long term jobs into the future while also reducing our emissions and power bills, but votes for unconventional gas drilling that will ruin the livelihoods of farmers and threaten our food basin.

      He votes to prioritise the rights of people who have made a lifestyle choice to follow a religion, but votes against the rights of minorities who have characteristics they did not choose such as sexuality, gender-identification, or being born in a dangerous country they had to flee. He even voted for vulnerable refugees, who are innocent and did nothing wrong, to have their only contact with family cut off by confiscating their phones!

      He votes for corporate tax cuts, but to make it harder for low income families to retain their tax benefits.

      The list goes on but they are just a few examples. I know everyone has different views on the world but its difficult to justify any one of those listed above objectively.

      That said, they are mostly LNP positions, not just his own. But being such a vocal supporter of those positions rather than just reluctantly voting with his party, you can see why the Liberals would be unelectable outside QLD if he became leader.

    2. @Trent Theyvoteforyou generalise those policies far too much because of the exact wording in the bills, although most of those policies you listed are completely fine.

    3. Trent, not to sound like a broken record but the Coalition have won lots of elections with those policies already, and you’re really underestimating the power of a unified and energized reactionary Liberal party at your peril.

    4. @Ben, that’s quite subjective and you’re free to think they’re fine, but the majority of Australians who are somewhere in the centre of the political spectrum don’t.

      FL’s comment I think partly explains the reason the Liberals keep getting elected with that platform. It’s not in any way an endorsement of those cruel or divisive policies, but more that they effectively communicate scare campaigns and simplistic slogans that mean alot of disengaged swinging voters just ignore or are unaware of them, and focus on other things.

      In any case, from a Victorian perspective I just don’t see a Dutton-led LNP having any success here. Polls have shown him as less popular than Morrison and Abbott even; and remember the Liberals’ did better in Melbourne in 2016 under Turnbull than they did under Abbott in 2013, which is the opposite of the northern states.

      So while a Dutton-led LNP may be effective in an Abbott type of way up north, they would be wiped off the map here worse than ever before. Higgins, Kooyong, Goldstein, Deakin, Casey, Latrobe, Chisholm, Flinders – they’re all on a knife edge under Morrison but I believe would be gone under Dutton.

    5. No seat in metropolitan Melbourne is safe for the Liberals if Dutton is leader, not even Aston or Menzies.

    6. With Dutton as leader, Menzies could very well fall. Under the current boundaries, it’s not as safe as it used to be with the inclusion of areas that Labor currently does quite well and that can swing very strongly to Labor.

    7. Trent and Nicholas, I would add as a counter point that the Coalition under Abbott in 2013 still managed to win all the seats you indicated, so Dutton as leader might not be the total catastrophe you predict.

      Granted due to demographic changes and other factors, seats like Higgins and Kooyong are now more marginal and wouldn’t back the Liberals under Dutton. But I would say seats like Aston, Menzies and Deakin would still be safe and the Liberals would have considered a fighting chance in places like Casey and Latrobe.

    8. I think the landscape has changed a lot since 2013 though Yoh An Tee.

      2013 seemed to be a low point for the Labor brand; I can’t see that being the case in 2025.

      Also in 2013, after the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd era, as hated as Abbott was, the Liberals probably represented stability because they were still associated with a 4-term Howard government. But that’s no longer the case, as they’re associated now with the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison era of instability.

      After this election it’s likely that all those seats – the ones the Liberals retain anyway – will be more marginal than 2013.

      And then Dutton himself is far, far more unpopular than even Tony Abbott was, and there were a lot more moderates still in the party in 2013 too. Most are gone, and some of the few remaining are likely to lose their seats. So the party and whole brand is now far more right wing.

      Put all that together and I just think a Dutton-led Liberal Party with no moderate influence against a more recently elected Labor government, will do a lot worse in Victoria than the Abbott-led Liberals that still had Turnbull & Bishop did against a tainted & divided two-term Labor Party in 2013.

    9. Driving through parts of Dickson I saw plenty of Corflutes, bill boards and flashing signs for Dutton and not much evidence of Ali France campaigning. If you look back on my comments in 2019 I credited Ali France with campaigning with large contingents of Zyounh Labor. I am no saying LNP on ground but am saying that they are out campaigning ALP in 2022.
      My impression was that Shorten was a better campaigner than Albanese.

    10. Trent, I make the comparison based on what has happened internationally (particularly US but also elsewhere like Canada). In the US, Trump was despised and that is partly why Biden and Democrats reclaimed control. However, Biden is now seen as indifferent and particularly disliked by conservative leaning voters. As a result, Republicans are now on track to win the 2022 midterm and possibly the next presidential election.

      In Canada, Justin Trudeau won a majority beating out a long serving Conservative government but then his Liberal Party lost quite a lot of seats at the next election and were forced into minority, just like Labor 2010 under Gillard.

      I can easily see Albanese being like Trudeau or Biden, initially being popular but then quickly fading and struggling to retain support when the next election rolls around.

    11. My guess is that with only a 1.2% margin and huge focus on QLD in 2019, Ali France probably had a lot more party resources behind her. I think she’d be more on her own this time while the party’s focus is on other seats.

      In general Labor’s strategy is more diversified than the QLD focus they had last time.

      I also think, relating to my other comments above, Labor don’t hate the idea of Dutton being opposition leader because he narrows the Liberal Party’s appeal. So in their eyes, winning government while Frydenburg loses to an independent and Dutton retains his seat and becomes opposition leader is probably their ideal scenario.

    12. You An Tee I agree totally with that possibility and with Frydenburg as Liberal leader that could very well happen; but I just think if Dutton is the leader, then in Melbourne and parts of Sydney that would be completely overshadowed by the Liberal Party being so unelectable with him at the helm and the moderates gone.

      The dynamic would just be different – a toxic Labor Party (at a real low point) versus Liberal Party with an unpopular leader but that wasn’t completely tainted in 2013 kinda cancelled each other out, which is why Melbourne didn’t swing too much either way. But the swing against a toxic (in Vic) hard right Liberal Party with a genuinely hated leader in Dutton won’t be cancelled out by a one-term Labor Party just being underwhelming or disappointing.

      That’s just my view of it anyway, I don’t see the moderate Liberal voters in the centre (which is where Victorian Liberals generally are) swinging behind Peter Dutton in any circumstance. Labor would really have to monumentally mess up, and even then I still can’t see the more inner-middle suburban seats swinging back to Dutton.

    13. UAP is preferncing Labor over the Liberals in Dickson. Apparently its retribution from Clive Palmer for Peter Dutton driving the exit of the old LNP executive. Some of them worked for Palmer or were still chummy with him from the LNP days (David Hutchinson, Bruce McIver, Gary Spence etc).

      Unfortunately I still favor Dutton to hold on. There has been a fightback reported for Labor in Queensland but Dickson hasn’t been as one of the seats potentially mentioned in play for Labor. UAP was a non factor in this seat last time so another Palmer election flop may make it a non-story.

    14. @Political Nightwatchman…Newspoll scoring Dutton’s primary tonight at 42 per cent. That’s down from the 46 he got in 2019. With UAP referencing to Labor that would make Dickson a line-ball contest with a week of campaigning to go. If both Josh and Dutton lose their seats who will lead the party?

    15. Bruce, I suspect Angus Taylor. His seat is more regional and if the L/NP suffer setbacks in the regions it is possible he could be the leader. I also wouldn’t rule out a dark horse such as Andrew Hastie or Michael Sukkar if they both hold onto their seats if they won’t want a leader from NSW.

      Would be totally surprised if my MP Luke Howarth in neighbouring Petrie became leader but I could see him potentially becoming part of the senior frontbench, maybe Karen Andrews is also in with a shot to become leader but I doubt it, or will the coalition move Payne from the senate to the lower house? Could we see Marise Payne take Morrisons seat of Cook in a by-election.

      Purely hypothetical but I expect Dutton to hold on and Frydenburg should barely hold on by a whisker as well.

      1-2% swing to Labor here at the moment so still marginal. Redishtricting is due by next election so the question is where this seat shifts? Will it become even more marginal or will it become safer for the LNP? Any thoughts?

    16. @Daniel that entirely depends on whether they actually do a redistribution or fiddle with some borders for 5 minutes on their lunch break and then get some poor soul to write up the report with as many big words they can pull.

      In all seriousness they cannot go for another minimalist redistribution given seats such as Fadden, Longman, Blair, Fisher and even your seat of Petrie are nearing or are over the enrollment threshold. Opposite effect is taking its toll on Maranoa and the usual suspects in regional QLD that can’t keep up with the southeast. I’ve rarely been to the parts of Brisbane in or around Dickson and don’t know much about them so I can’t actually comment on what any potential changes may result in but I am fascinated by Dutton’s ability to survive here with small margins over and over. I may be scorned by fellow users for this but in all honesty he reminds me of a US Republican and it’s a bit embarrassing people in Brisbane have continued to elect him. Although given Bjelke-Petersen’s Nationals came within striking distance of winning in the heart of Brisbane I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised.

    17. Taylor is too tainted by scandal. If Frydenberg and Duttom both lose their seats its most likely Tehan with outside chance of Andrews unless they go outside cabinet or Morrison stays as a stop gap for 6 or 12 months as they figure it out or.move a senator into a lower house seat.

    18. Depends how the border shifts. If it moves south into Ryan or Brisbane then it becomes notionally Labor. If they move north, and especially if they redraw Somerset into the division then it becomes safe LNP (which makes the most sense imo). If it takes in parts of Lilley then again probably better for LNP (where it’ll take more of Bridgeman Downs and surrounds).

    19. Agree with you Furtive that Dickson needs to expand and shifting it north and west by absorbing Somerset and rural parts of Moreton Bay council (Woodford and surrounds) will bring it into tolerance.

      The problem with current boundaries is that Moreton Bay council is split 3 way (southern parts around Strathpine and Petrie placed into Dickson, the Redcliffe peninsula area combined with Bald Hills/Carseldine in Petrie and then the Caboolture area placed into Longman). Ideally, Bald Hills, Carseldine and the rest of the BCC suburbs should be reunited in Lilley, then Petrie absorbs some of the suburbs around Strathpine/Petrie. Dickson can then push north and west to gain Woodford and Somerset council

    20. I think the current arrangement is probably a remnant from the pre-2010 period when this area was subdivided into 3 council areas (Pine Rivers, Redcliffe and Caboolture) and each federal district being centred around each principal centre (Strathpine, Kippa-Ring and Caboolture respectively). However, population trends indicate Caboolture and some parts of the Redcliffe area around North Lakes are growing faster than the suburbs around the Pine Rivers. Therefore the boundaries would have to adjust to suit, given Petrie and Longman are over quota and Dickson is under quota.

    21. I find the redistribution speculation weird. (1) I really doubt the AEC would repeat the folly of taking Dickson over the D’Aguilar mountain range. (2) Dickson is only slightly below average enrolment. (3) The other Moreton Bay Region seats (Petrie, Longman) are above average enrolment. (4) There isn’t even a redistribution due next term; unless Queensland gains a seat, which changes the enrolment equation.

      As for the election, Dickson seems to be flying under the radar a bit. The neighbouring seats of Longman, Brisbane, Ryan – and even Lilley! – have received much more attention. But Dickson is more marginal than Brisbane and Ryan, and probably on a similar margin to Longman if you adjust for sophomore surge. One to watch.

    22. David Walsh, yes there is a redistribution due next term. Redistributions are due to happen every seven years. In Queensland this will be March 2025.

    23. Wilson, although the constitution laws state a redistribution will be deferred if it is scheduled to occur within 12 months of the expected dissolution of the House. Given that the new House and Parliament will be sitting in July 2022, that makes May 2025 the effective deadline for the subsequent general election and thus the redistribution for Queensland is highly likely to be deferred as it falls within 12 months from a general election.

    24. Unless population figures from the recent census show Queensland’s entitlement is above 30.5 quotas, which would enable it to gain a seat in reapportionment and thus trigger an early redistribution.

    25. At pre-poll on Gympie Road most of the candidates missing. Only had a votes were A LP, LNP, Greens and one nation. Interestingly the greens give their second preference to the Trotskyites.

    26. He’s referring to ALP, the Greens are preferencing Ali France. 3rd pref to Thor Prohaska.

      As for why “Trotskyites”, it might be because Andrew’s an old DLP stalwart, the vibe dies hard.

      Not sure why that’d be interesting though, as the Greens have the ALP number 2 in most seats as far I’m aware.

    27. Dutton hasn’t been at the booths all week apart from a very brief appearance on Tuesday, while Ali France and myself (Greens candidate) have been at Gympie Rd Strathpine booth non-stop. Not sure whether he thinks they have it in the bag, but it has felt like a mood for change on the booths. All the vollies being friendly to each other which is nice 😀

    28. Great to hear that the volunteers are being nice to each other, Vinnie. It’s a smart move to do so as a volunteer for all sorts of reasons:

      1) It makes everyone look better in front of the public, and by extension the candidates we each support.

      2) It can make some otherwise long or quiet shifts far more enjoyable.

      3) It reinforces the collective idea that treating each other as humans worthy of respect comes first, and we can respectfully agree to disagree on our politics.

      4) It can also come in handy if a particular member of the public wants to be rude. If the volunteers are nice to each other, the party volunteer closest to the voter’s point of view can steer the conversation onto common ground and reduce the temperature.

      5) If one of you needs to use the loo/grab a coffee, etc, then you can keep an eye out for each other.

    29. It might be Dutton has been caught up in the furore surrounding the Solomon Islands issue. It might also be because he’s campaigning in various marginal seats as he is confident in his own seat.

      What do people up there think of Dutton? Is he more well-liked than Morrison?

    30. Maybe he’s more focused on campaigning in more marginal seats knowing that he’ll retain his own.

      How’s Dutton viewed over there in Dickson? More popular than Morrison?

    31. I also find it’s a fair bit easier to be on good terms with the other volunteers when it’s not viewed as a close race between your two parties.

      I’ve been on booths where everyone thinks the Coalition are 60% chance to win while Labor and Greens are 20% chance and that was pretty friendly between Labor and the Greens… But if Labor and the Greens are 50% oh boy

    32. @ Ben Messenger – I know where you are coming from. Don’t get me wrong, what I describe above is ideal, and it happens about half the time. Another 30% or so of the time, it’s just boring and slow. But when things are tight, yes, it can get pretty willing 😉🤕

    33. I don’t know how much this will influence the election on Saturday, but Shane Bazzi, whom Dutton sued for defamation after Bazzi labelled him a rape apologist, just won his appeal against Dutton.

    34. I don’t think micro-stories like that influence much @Furtive Lawngnome. it might not technically be defamation in a legal sense but extreme comments like those from Bazzi usually backfire on the person making them rather than undermining the target.

    35. I was on the ground again at the pre polls today and definitely alot quieter vs when polls first opened. The Northside of Brisbane booths you can visually see and feel the mood for change is on.

      ICAC number 1 vote winner. There must be some belief in the electorates that the potential to shine some light on pollies conduct is a good thing. As one punter put it today it feels a bit pre Fitzgerald enquiry.

      Anyway, hope this section of the post is allowed, I’m locking in my seat predictions now, nothing too controversial except the massive swing in Petrie

      Dickson – LNP retain 51%2pp
      Brisbane – ALP gain 52.5% 2pp
      Lilley – ALP retain 54% 2pp
      Ryan – ALP gain. 52%2pp
      Petrie- LNP retain 50.5%
      Longman – Leaning slightly towards LNP, but can see this being a cliffhanger.

      Senate 2,2, and Greens PHON.

    36. @SM Bruce,
      I’ve been a bit disconnected from the seats south of the brown snake so not willing to add any commentary or bold predictions. If I was a betting man, nothing changes south of the river to the Tweed.

      However, if sentiment is uniform across the entire SEQ region, I see seats like Bonner and Forde losing their entire swing gains from the 2019 election. A colleague of mine just coined the term “Big Swing, no Ding”. I think she means swings will be on but unlikely large enough to flip seats.

      I would be keen to hear from people more connected to those Southern Brisbane, bayside and Gold Coast electorates.

    37. Voted today at the Gympie Rd prepoll booth (hi Vinnie!) – Dutton and France were also there; possibly UAP/PHON too for all I know.

      Pretty high volunteer to voter ratio compared to City Hall, where I was later.

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