Capricornia – Australia 2022

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14 COMMENTS

  1. Has any seat swung larger in a 12 year period (excluding redistributions) than this seat? 25 point improvement from the Coalition from 2007 to 2019.

    Seems to also apply to the state level – Mirani voted ONP twice and Rockhampton’s moved right in recent years too.

  2. I think even if you count all seats, including those that have been significantly altered by redistributions, Capricornia still has the largest 2007-to-2019 swing, with neighbouring Dawson taking second place.

  3. Why is Labor choosing the same candidate who obtained the worst result in decades for the ALP in this seat? He suffered a 12 point swing against him yet he thinks he can win this seat back? Labor is dreaming.

    Labor may never win this seat back ever again which says allot. You could argue it wasn’t the candidates fault but I’m afraid he definitely played a part in the drubbing in this seat. Only Steve Pearce could make this remotely close, Russell is not the man to do it.

  4. Yes sorry that’s who I meant, I got mixed up with names, He may have lost Mirani in 2017 but it wasn’t to the LNP. He was considered one of the only people in 2012 that if Labor would gain a seat it would be him, He lost but he def is a decent country bloke. It’s very rare you will see this on the left now.

    Capricornia along with Dawson joins Moncrieff,Wide Bay,McPherson,Fadden,Groom,Hinkler,Fisher,Fairfax,Wright,Maranoa and Kennedy (ALP vs LNP) as Ultra-Safe seats that will never flip outside of landslide years for Labor.

  5. this is the best np vote here for decades….. this seat is mainly Urban Rockhampton ….. look at the state election figures…. would be alp held easily on those figures…. has usually been labor held since the 60s

  6. You have the ask the question with this seat is where will the One Nation go similar to Dawson. It was 17% that is very unlikely to repeat itself in the next election. WIth Labor putting in miners there is a chance.

  7. Usually, this seat is not held by the Coalition for more than one term. Last election may have been the first time in history where the Coalition result in Capricornia was better than the QLD TPP. The fact that Labor lost in Rockhampton is a disastrous result. Rockhampton is a solid labor town and the state seat was even held in 2012 landslide.

  8. Nimalan
    Looking at the primary votes for Rockhampton in 2012 I’m pretty sure Labor only held it bc most of the KAP vote just exhausted.
    Labor got 1,189 more votes before TPP and the LNP got 1,625, despite there being 7,869 non-Labor/LNP primary votes, meaning an exhaustion rate of 64.24%.

  9. Ryan,
    Good pick up. KAP got over 12% and ALP was less than 40% at that election. At the 2019 election the swing away form ALP was mainly driven by ONP and the LNP vote barely changed. As Ben mentioned the next election would be of interest to see if there a long term move away from Labor. Will the net zero commitment mean at the next election KAP, ONP and UAP will pick up votes and how will the preferences flow.

  10. People are overlooking the results in this seat from the last election. There was a swing of 14% against Labor, and an increase in the One Nation vote of 17%. The question is where will that 17% go. Will it go all to One Nation or to Labor or to the LNP. This seat is not a write off for Labor, however, it will be difficult to gain.

  11. Everyone talks about the Bob Brown convoy but its no more relevant then this seat. Brown’s convoy went right through Rockhampton and literally did everything to seal Labor’s fate in this seat. Even then Greens leader Richard di Natale admitted Brown harmed Labor’s chances.

    It hard to see Labor gaining this seat. The swing is just too great and it’s not one I’m hearing that Labor is bullish about. I do think there should be a significant correction swing to Labor here though.

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