Tudge has a huge personal vote here, The margin is inflated. You could argue Labor came close in 2010 because of the ”homegirl factor” But you have to remember there were many seats in Victoria that were safer than Aston back in 2010 than they are now. Menzies,Goldstein,Casey,Flinders,Higgins,McMillan/Monash,Wannon and Kooyong. That is allot of seats that were safer than Aston back then. There is no evidence that this seat has trended Liberal. Just a high personal following for the incumbent and the boundaries have changed very little, Labor just hasn’t recovered from the big swing against them here in 2013. When Tudge retires and when the environment is right for Labor this will return to around its 2010 margin.