Senate – Australian Capital Territory – Australia 2022

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  1. What % of the vote would Labor need to get to win both senate seats which is extremely unlikely to happen? 66%?

  2. Daniel, more important is the Liberals have to poll below 33%.

    It would be more conducive to the Liberals failing to win if exactly 2 other groups roughly split the vote. 2 groups with 0.9 quotas each is significantly closer to winning 2 seats than 1 group on 1.8 quotas.

    Maybe the Labor party should tell their voters to toss 2 coins in the voting booth and if they flip 2 heads to vote 1 Green to maximise the chances that the Liberal loses.

  3. Possible, but unlikely. They could do it with slightly over 50% (1.5 quotas), as long as the Greens also got slightly less than 16.7% (0.5 quotas). If the combined left doesn’t make it to two quotas, the Libs win the second seat; if it does, but the Greens get more than half a quota, it probably goes Green. ACT voters are used to Hare-Clark so there’d be more BTL voting than usual, but that’s roughly it.

  4. The Liberals have in the past polled very badly in the ACT ie 21% or so. Such a low figure is unlikely in a Federa election but with COVID anything could happen.

    A vote split of say 60% ALP, 22% Lib 18% Green is certainly possible. This would give 2 ALP.

    Another possibility would be ALP 45%, Lib 25% Greens 25%, Other 10% . This would give the ACT a Green senator

  5. I feel that the ACT getting a Greens senator, while unlikely, is still more likely than two ALP senators.

  6. Right now, Labor is on about 1.3 quotas, the Liberals are on about 1.1, and the Greens are on about 0.6.

    So something like a 6% swing (0.2q) would get e.g. the Libs down to 0.9, Labor up to 1.5.

    The trouble with this for the Left is that something like 20% of Labor voters prefer the Liberals over the Greens, maybe even more considering they just got a swing from the Libs. And 20% of Labor’s half quota equals the Liberal getting back to the line; 25%, past it.

    If the swing is more than six percent, though, then that should pull the Libs down far enough that they can’t get back on preferences.

  7. 20% of ALP voters might usually prefer the Liberals to the Greens but a 6% swing is pretty seismic. If that happens, Zed’s looking for new job. Indeed even a 3.7 or 3.8% swing could be enough to move him on, noting that the usual preference flows to Liberals from right wing parties are not a feature in the ACT.


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