West Swan – WA 2021

ALP 19.2%

Incumbent MP
Rita Saffioti, since 2008.

Geography
North-eastern fringe of Perth. West Swan covers southwestern parts of Swan local government area and southeastern parts of Wanneroo local government area, including Ballajura, Malaga, Bennett Springs, Middle Swan, Neerabup and Wangara, and parts of Caversham.

Redistribution
West Swan contracted substantially, losing Baskerville, Herne Hill and Middle Swan to Swan Hills, losing Jandabup, Mariginiup, Gnangara and Banksia Grove to Wanneroo, losing Wangara to Landsdale and losing Bennett Springs to Bassendean. West Swan then gains the remainder of Ballajura from Mirrabooka and Aveley, Ellenbrook and Belhus from Swan Hills. These changes increased the Labor margin from 17.2% to 19.2%.

History
West Swan is a new seat created at the 2008 redistribution. The seat largely replaced the former seat of Ballajura, along with parts of other seats.

Ballajura had been held by the Liberal Party’s Rhonda Parker for one term from 1996 to 2001. John D’Orazio won the seat for the ALP in 2001, and was re-elected in 2005. D’Orazio left the ALP in 2006, and ran unsuccessfully for the neighbouring seat of Morley in 2008.

In 2008, West Swan was won by Rita Saffioti, then chief of staff to Premier Alan Carpenter. The notional margin of 10.6% was cut to 4.4%.

Saffioti was re-elected in 2013, with her margin cut further to 1.9%, but an 18% swing in 2017 made this seat much safer.

Candidates

Assessment
West Swan is a safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Rita Saffioti Labor 13,45657.1+12.959.9
Rod Henderson Liberal 6,14126.1-21.225.2
Beth McMullan Greens 1,7217.3+1.56.0
Trevor RuwoldtShooters, Fishers & Farmers9854.2+4.22.1
Isaac MoranAustralian Christians6963.0+0.41.8
James LawrenceMatheson for WA5692.4+2.41.7
3.3
Informal 1,4735.9

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Rita Saffioti Labor 15,81267.1+18.069.2
Rod Henderson Liberal 7,74432.9-18.030.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 65.6% in the south-east to 71.2% in the south-west.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-West71.27,86835.2
North-East69.06,55229.3
South-East65.61,9448.7
Pre-poll70.31,9628.8
Other votes67.64,01018.0

Two-party-preferred votes in West Swan at the 2017 WA state election

2 COMMENTS

  1. West Swan is fascinating seat from a political historical context, a seat clearly in the middle of a metropolitan area’s mortgage belt which is a traditional battleground for the two major parties or even an outright Liberal stronghold like in Stirling or Moore at the federal level. Yet this seat has remained firmly in Labor hands. Saffioiti will get her margin over 25% more likely after preferences. Ironically may not even be Labor’s safest seat after the election.

  2. I think the voters in West Swan were pretty tired of the state Liberals who promised a train line in 2008, 2013 and then downgraded it to a bus rapid transit system – none of which were delivered. Now that a train to Ellenbrook is set in stone, there is a good chance West Swan will be a safe Labor seat in years to come, a bit like how Mandurah went from a marginal seat to safe Labor after the building of the Mandurah line in 2007.

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