Kingsley – WA 2021

ALP 1.2%

Incumbent MP
Jessica Stojkovski, since 2017.

Geography
Northern Perth. Kingsley mostly lies in the southeastern corner of Joondalup council area, along with small parts of Wanneroo council area. The seat covers the suburbs of Woodvale, Kingsley, Greenwood and parts of Warwick.

Redistribution
Kingsley expanded to the south, taking in Hamersley from Balcatta and moving the southern boundary to the Reid Highway. These changes increased the Labor margin from 0.7% to 1.2%.

History
Kingsley has existed as a seat since 1989, and has been held by the Liberal Party at all but two elections.

Cheryl Edwardes won the seat in 1989. She served as a minister in the Court government in the 1990s, and retired in 2005. The ALP’s Judy Hughes won Kingsley in 2005 by less than 400 votes – the only Labor candidate to win a Liberal seat in 2005.

The Labor Party’s slim margin was almost entirely wiped out by the 2008 redistribution, and Hughes lost to Liberal candidate Andrea Mitchell with a 4.6% swing. Mitchell was re-elected in 2013, but lost in 2017 to Labor candidate Jessica Stojkovski with a swing of almost 15%.

Candidates

Assessment
Kingsley is a traditional Liberal seat, but was won by Labor in 2017 amidst a landslide election result. Current polling suggests Labor is on track for an ever bigger landslide victory, which would probably be enough to hold this seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Andrea Mitchell Liberal 9,81443.1-16.242.6
Jessica Stojkovski Labor 9,30540.9+11.140.9
Matthew Ward Greens 2,2089.7+1.210.0
Gilbert BurnsideAustralian Christians6552.9+0.52.9
John McNairMatheson for WA4732.1+2.11.8
Dominic StaltariMicro Business3231.4+1.41.5
0.2
Informal 9634.1

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Jessica Stojkovski Labor 11,54150.7+14.751.2
Andrea Mitchell Liberal 11,23449.3-14.748.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: central, north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (51.6%) and the south (54.6%). The Liberal party won 50.8% in the north.

The Greens polled just over 10% in the centre and south and 8.5% in the north.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central10.551.610,34140.1
North8.549.24,32816.8
South10.454.64,14816.1
Other votes10.649.94,24416.4
Pre-poll8.749.42,75810.7

Election results in Kingsley at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

5 COMMENTS

  1. My old seat – if Labor hold this in 2021, they’ll be DOA in 2025 – this area only returns Labor MPs in landslides (2005 under Gallop was the last time) and/or strong candidates (Graham Edwards won here federally in 1998 and 2001)

  2. 2005 wasn’t a landslide, though. The Libs lost Kingsley at that election by trying to replace the retiring Cheryl Edwardes with her husband. Now they’re trying her son. Either they’re slow learners, or nobody else nominated?

  3. You would think Labor will hold this seat, but Joe Spagnolo wrote in the Sunday times that Kingsley “an interesting one to watch”. Which hints Labor retaining this seat may not be a forgone conclusion. Spagnolo has given a much more optimistic picture for the Liberals though despite indicating the Liberals will lose seats. How much of that is a realty remains to be seen.

    Liberals are listed at $8.00 though, so the markets are not indicating they are in the hunt for this seat.

  4. As someone who lived in this seat between the late 90s and two years ago, I’ll reiterate my earlier comment (plus BoP’s as well, thanks for that), that while this area is Liberal-leaning compared to the statewide vote, it does vote Labor when they poll highly enough and/or have a popular MP. As the former is true this election, Labor should hold this this year.

    As for the latter, I don’t know how popular Stojkovski is here – can anyone add to this?

  5. Shes pretty popular and has been a constant community figure, the attack adds are hunting on social media in both Kingsley and Joondalup, which shows you how concerned the liberals are

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