Kimberley – WA 2021

ALP 13.0%

Incumbent MP
Josie Farrer, since 2013.

Geography
Far north Western Australia. Kimberley covers the Broome, Derby-West Kimberley, Halls Creek and Wyndham-East Kimberley council areas. The seat includes the northern centres of Broome and Derby.

Redistribution
Kimberley took in the far east of Pilbara, an area with very few people. This change had no impact on the margin.

History
Kimberley has existed as a seat since 1904. The seat has been dominated by the ALP for most of the twentieth century, but Kimberley has never been a very safe seat.

The ALP won the seat off the Country Party in 1924. Two successive Labor MPs held the seat for the next 44 years. In 1968, the Liberal Party’s Alan Ridge won the seat.

In 1980, the Labor Party’s Ernie Bridge was elected. Bridge became the first Aboriginal cabinet minister in Australia in 1986, and served in the ministry until Labor lost power in 1993.

In 1996, Bridge resigned from the ALP, and ran for re-election as an independent. The ALP chose to not run a candidate against him and he won one more term before retiring in 2001.

The ALP’s Carol Martin won the seat back for Labor in 2001. She was re-elected in 2005 and 2008.

Martin retired in 2013 and she was succeeded by Labor candidate Josie Farrer. Farrer won a second term in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
The Labor margin in Kimberley is likely inflated by the 2017 landslide but it’s hard to see Labor losing here.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Josie Farrer Labor 5,25044.8+18.1
Warren Greatorex Liberal 2,03817.4-8.3
Rob Houston Nationals 1,91516.3-2.0
Liz Vaughan Greens 1,0859.3-14.2
Keith WrightOne Nation9528.1+8.1
Kai JonesIndependent2221.9+1.9
Graham ChapmanIndependent1651.4+1.4
Ryan AlbreyFlux920.8+0.8
Informal 4984.1

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Josie Farrer Labor 7,38163.0+7.9
Warren Greatorex Liberal 4,33337.0-7.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts. Polling places in the town of Broome have been grouped, with the remaining booths split between north and south.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.6% in the north to 72.7% in the south.

The Nationals came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.5% in the south to 20.6% in the north.

Voter groupNAT prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Broome16.765.32,76523.6
South10.572.71,52013.0
North20.657.61,46312.5
Pre-poll22.055.23,30528.2
Other votes9.967.72,66622.7

Election results in Kimberley at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Nationals primary votes.

3 COMMENTS

  1. That new area is about 115,000 sq km. Thanks to the Large District Allowance, that means an extra 1733 phantom voters are shuffled between Pilbara and Kimberley, on top of whoever it is who actually lives in the middle of the Gibson Desert. Redistributions get weird in this part of the world.

    The National candidate is an Aboriginal woman from Halls Creek (like Josie Farrer), compared to the white guy from Broome they ran last time. The new Labor candidate is also from Broome. Last time Labor got 66% in Halls Creek and the Nats only 7% – if the Nats poach a few Labor voters just in that one town, it could flip this to a Labor/Nat top two.

  2. Greens may have had a shot like in 2013 due to Farrer not recontesting. Fracking is at large, though it doesn’t seem to be attracting James Price Point level swings.

    Liberals are preferencing Greens over Labor, but the Nationals arent, so winning a run off will be tough (and even without Farrer Labor may win on primaries)

    ALP retain

  3. Swings all over the place here. In Broome, the Nats got smacked and both Labor and Greens were up a fair bit. Halls Creek and Fitzroy Crossing, Labor were down about 20% and the Greens and Nats were up. Derby, a 16% swing to the Libs (candidate was from there). Greens also more than doubled their vote on earlies.

    Libs top scored with 34% in Derby; Nats got 21% in Halls Creek. Greens got over 20% in all four Broome booths, and Labor got 75% in Wyndham (all other booths except Kununurra were in the 50s). Something for everyone there.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here