Carine – WA 2021

LIB 10.6%

Incumbent MP
Tony Krsticevic, since 2008.

Geography
Northern Perth. Carine covers the suburbs of Karrinyup, North Beach, Watermans Bay, Marmion, Carine and Duncraig. The seat lies on the border of Stirling and Joondalup council areas.

Redistribution
Carine shifted north, taking in Sorrento from Hillarys and losing part of North Beach and the remainder of Gwelup to Scarborough. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 9% to 10.6%.

History
The seat of Carine has existed since 1996, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.

Carine was first won in 1996 by Katie Hodson-Thomas. Hodson-Thomas was re-elected in 2001 and 2005, and retired at the 2008 election.

The seat has been held since 2008 by the Liberal Party’s Tony Krsticevic.

Candidates

Assessment
Carine is a typical safe Liberal seat. The Liberal Party will probably hold this seat but no Liberal seat is safe if there is a massive Labor landslide.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tony Krsticevic Liberal 12,08350.1-13.450.6
Andrew Owens Labor 6,85128.4+4.026.8
Nadine Reeves-Hennessey Greens 2,72811.3+1.910.5
Terry PophamOne Nation1,2315.1+5.14.0
Ray MoranAustralian Christians5052.1-0.52.2
Athan TsirigotisMicro Business4241.8+1.81.4
Annette AlmondMatheson for WA2891.2+1.21.0
3.4
Informal 8853.5

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tony Krsticevic Liberal 14,23359.0-9.360.6
Andrew Owens Labor 9,87141.0+9.339.4

Booth breakdown


Booths have been divided into three parts: north-east, north-west and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 57.3% in the north-east to 64.7% in the north-west.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.8% in the north-west to 12.2% in the south.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South12.260.67,46429.0
North-East11.357.37,31128.4
North-West7.864.74,94219.2
Pre-poll8.363.12,0337.9
Other votes10.460.33,99015.5

Election results in Carine at the 2017 WA state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

2 COMMENTS

  1. A recent poll conducted across Joondalup, Hillarys and Scarborough (the seats immediately North & South of Carine) seems to indicate double digit swings across those three seats, which one would presume would also apply in Carine given it’s sandwiched between them, though I know Labor aren’t going as hard here.

    Carine I think has the potential to be an outlier and also flip though I’m not betting on it, but it could be one worth watching.

  2. Looks like me hedging my predictions didn’t pay off. Not overly surprised that it did flip given the swing, but it’s barely an outlier. It will be strange not seeing Krsticevic’s face line every second bus stop in this seat from now on.

    Lilburne is a certainly a one term wonder, this seat will be one of the first to return to the nest next election.

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