- Khalil Eideh (ALP), since 2006.
- Bernie Finn (LIB), since 2006. Previously Member for Tullamarine 1992-1999.
- Colleen Hartland (GRN), since 2006.
- Justin Madden (ALP), since 2006. Previously MLC for Doutta Galla 1999-2006.
- Martin Pakula (ALP), since 2006.
All eleven seats are held by the ALP. Eight of those eleven seats are held by margins of between 19.4% and 25.6%. The remaining three seats are held by margins of between 11.2% and 12.5%.
|Democratic Labor Party||4,029||1.08||0.0646|
Western Metropolitan is a very strong region for the ALP. In 2006, the ALP safely won three seats, and gained over half a quota for their fourth candidate.
The Liberal Party won a single seat, and the second Liberal candidate gained just under half a quota in surplus.
The Greens candidate polled 56% of a quota.
After the distribution of minor party candidates, Greens candidate Colleen Hartland outpolled the fourth Labor candidate by only 129 votes. The full votes at that point were:
- Reynolds (LIB) – 0.7022 quotas
- Hartland (GRN) – 0.6330
- Barlow (ALP) – 0.6309
The Labor preferences then pushed Hartland over a quota, defeating the second Liberal.
- Hartland (GRN) – 1.0939
- Reynolds (LIB) – 0.8310
Sitting Labor MLC for Southern Metropolitan Robert Smith is running in Western Metropolitan. It is unclear who else is running for the ALP. The Liberal Party is running sitting MLC Bernie Finn and candidate Andrew Elsbury. Sitting Greens MLC Colleen Hartland is running for re-election.
It is safe to say that the first three Labor seats and the first Liberal seat are all safe. The seat up for contest belongs to Greens MLC Colleen Hartland, who won in 2006 on Labor preferences with barely half a quota in primary votes, and outpolling the Labor candidate at the critical point by only 129 votes.
A slight increase in the Labor vote would push a fourth Labor candidate ahead of the Greens, and give them the seat on Greens preferences. Things are more complicated if the Labor vote declines. A relatively small swing against the ALP would probably still produce a Greens win, whether those votes go to the Liberal Party or the Greens.
At the final count in 2006, the Greens outpolled the Liberal candidate by about 4.38%. An overall decline in the combined Greens/Labor vote of over 4% could produce a result of 3 Labor and 2 Liberal.
Having said that, while the Greens are certainly vulnerable in this seat, a swing against the ALP would likely benefit both the Greens and the Liberals, and while the Liberals would come closer to the Greens on the final count, they will probably still hold out.