Warrandyte – Victoria 2010

LIB 9.0%

Incumbent MP
Ryan Smith, since 2006.

Geography
Eastern Melbourne. Warrandyte covers parts of Maroondah and Manningham council areas, specifically the suburbs of Croydon Hills, Croydon North, Park Orchards, Ringwood North, Warrandyte, Warranwood and parts of Croydon, Donvale, Ringwood, Ringwood East and Warrandyte South.

History
Warrandyte was created for the 1976 election. It has been won by the Liberal Party at all elections except for two elections in the 1980s when the seat was won by the Labor Party.

Warrandyte was first won in 1976 by the Liberal Party’s Norman Lacy, who had previously won the seat of Ringwood in 1973. He held the seat for two terms, losing in 1982.

The ALP’s Lou Hill won Warrandyte in 1982, and was re-elected in 1985. In 1988 he was defeated by the Liberal Party’s Phil Honeywood.

Honeywood became a Parliamentary Secretary when the Kennett government was elected in 1992, and became a minister when the government was re-elected in 1996. He served as an Opposition frontbencher from 1999 until his retirement in 2006.

Warrandyte was won in 2006 by the Liberal Party’s Ryan Smith.

Candidates

Political situation
Warrandyte is a reasonably safe Liberal seat.

2006 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ryan SmithLIB18,30950.80-1.62
Jarrod PantherALP10,51929.19-5.85
David EllisGRN5,16914.34+4.36
Paul BronteFF2,0425.67+5.67

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ryan SmithLIB21,24458.99+2.64
Jarrod PantherALP14,76741.01-2.64

Booth breakdown
Booths in Warrandyte have been divided into three areas. Booths in the City of Manningham in the north of the seat have been grouped as Warrandyte, while booths in the City of Maroondah have been divided into Croydon in the east and Ringwood in the west.

The Liberal Party won 63% in Warrandyte, and around 57% in the other parts of the seat.

 

Polling booths in Warrandyte at the 2006 state election. Warrandyte in green, Croydon in blue, Ringwood in yellow.
Voter groupGRN %LIB 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Ringwood13.6457.4112,32834.23
Croydon12.3157.8710,34328.72
Warrandyte20.9863.405,09514.15
Other votes13.8460.058,24522.90
Two-party-preferred votes in Warrandyte at the 2006 state election.
Greens primary votes in Warrandyte at the 2006 state election.

6 COMMENTS

  1. The northern part of the seat lies within the Yarra Valley green wedge, so is semi-rural in nature despite being quite close to the city. Contains some quite affluent areas where people have built big houses on large blocks (e.g. Park orchards, the 68% Lib booth).

    In the south and east, Maroondah council is pretty standard middle-class outer suburbia. Although you can see that in the older parts of Ringwood and Croydon (in the far south of the seat), Labor do about 10% better than in the newer Ringwood North and Croydon Hills areas.

  2. Candidates in ballot paper order are:

    Chris Padgham – Greens
    Yasmin de Zilwa – Family First
    Paul Slattery –
    Meghan Hopper – Labor
    Ryan Smith – Liberal

  3. Slattery has complained that the VEC did not allow him to have ‘independent’ next to his name and is considering legal action. I told Manningham leader I gave him zip chance.

  4. I was just having a look at the primary votes for individuals booths, and noticed something extremely peculiar concerning the Greens vote at the Warrandyte booth. According to the VEC website, the Greens received 398 of 2528 votes at this booth – that puts their primary vote at 15.7 percent. In 2006, they received 715 out of 2660 votes, or 26.8 percent. That is an 11 percent swing against the Greens. I assume that the VEC figures are complete, given that all the votes from the booths are counted now, and the number of total votes seems just right.

    Now, does anyone have any idea as to what could possibly have caused such a massive swing? It just doesn’t make sense. Maybe Ben Raue could offer up some better analysis, because I’m lost for words.

  5. I went through the figures from the ABC site and put the Green votes / swings into a spreadsheet. The swings were mostly fairly evenly distributed between 4.1% and -2.5%, with only five exceptions. Warrandyte stands out with a -4.2% swing. No idea what happened there… probably some local peculiarity.

    The aberrantly high swings, by the way, were just as interesting: 8.5% in Derrimut, 7.6% in Footscray, 7.3% in Williamstown, and 6.4% in Preston. The western suburbs and the not-so-inner north. Looking at that, it’s amazing the Greens are in danger of losing their MLC in Western Metro.

Comments are closed.