ALP 2.3%
Incumbent MP
Michael Crutchfield, since 2002.
Geography
Western Victoria. South Barwon covers areas to the south of Geelong, including southern parts of the Geelong urban area and western parts of Surf Coast council area. South Barwon covers the Geelong suburbs of Belmont and Grovedale and the towns of Torquay and Barwon Heads.
History
South Barwon was created for the 1976 election. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1976 until 2002, when the ALP won the seat.
South Barwon was first won in 1976 by the Liberal Party’s Aurel Smith. He had previously won the seat of Bellarine when it was created in 1967 and held it until it was abolished in 1976. He held South Barwon until his retirement in 1982.
The Liberal Party’s Harley Dickinson won South Barwon in 1982. He held the seat until 1992. In 1992 he resigned from the Liberal Party to contest South Barwon as an independent, but lost the seat to the Liberal candidate, Alister Paterson.
Paterson was re-elected in 1996 and 1999, but in 2002 he lost to former Geelong mayor Michael Crutchfield. South Barwon’s demographics had changed as Geelong had grown, and become a marginal seat. Crutchfield was re-elected in 2006.
Candidates
- John Dobinson (Independent)
- Alan Barron (Democratic Labor Party)
- Keith Oakley (Independent)
- Andrew Katos (Liberal)
- Kathleen O’Connor (Family First)
- Michael Crutchfield (Labor)
- Heather Wellington (Independent)
- Tony Leen (Country Alliance)
- Simon Northeast (Greens)
Political situation
South Barwon is very marginal.
2006 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Crutchfield | ALP | 17,187 | 43.94 | -3.46 |
| Michael King | LIB | 16,103 | 41.17 | +1.66 |
| Matthew Walters | GRN | 3,537 | 9.04 | -0.29 |
| Jonathan Tinney | FF | 1,821 | 4.66 | +4.66 |
| John Lambert | IND | 464 | 1.19 | +1.19 |
2006 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michael Crutchfield | ALP | 20,446 | 52.28 | -2.73 |
| Michael King | LIB | 18,666 | 47.72 | +2.73 |
Booth breakdown
Polling booths in South Barwon have been divided into three areas. Those outside of the Geelong urban area have been grouped as ‘south’, while those in the Geelong area are grouped as Belmont (to the north) and Grovedale (to the south).
The ALP won a majority in all three areas, although the majority in Belmont was much smaller than in the other areas. The Greens polled the most by far in the south, with 14% compared to 7% or 6% in the Geelong booths.
| Voter group | GRN % | ALP 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Belmont | 7.13 | 50.92 | 12,214 | 31.24 |
| Grovedale | 6.34 | 54.73 | 9,062 | 23.18 |
| South | 14.21 | 55.11 | 8,690 | 22.23 |
| Other votes | 9.37 | 49.47 | 9,134 | 23.36 |
There has been controversy about a new road along the railway line with residents claiming a lack of consultation. Libs are concerned but not actually opposing construction.
The suburbs south of the Barwon River have always been more middle-class than the generally low rent areas in northern Geelong, and areas like Highton (the Lib booths in the north) are quite affluent and desirable parts of Geelong. The Surf Coast region, like most coastal areas, is seeing an influx of retirees and sea-changers, as evidenced by the strong Green vote in the south. There’s still some semi-rural land between the two, but the proposed Armstrong Creek development would bring Geelong’s sprawl as far south as Mount Dundeed (the small 53% booth in the centre of the seat).
There have been a few stuff-ups by the government in this seat. Ending the Geelong bypass at a T-junction in Waurn Ponds wasn’t a smart thing to do, with massive traffic delays during the peak holiday seasons. Now they’ve been basically forced to tack on several extensions, which have caused more disruptions, plus complaints from residents about the route.
Candidates in ballot paper order are:
John Dobinson –
Alan Barron – DLP
Keith Oakley –
Andrew Katos – Liberal
Kathleen O’Connor – Family First
Michael Crutchfield – Labor
Heather Wellington –
Tony Leen – Country Alliance
Simon Northeast – Greens
Heather Wellington is a former Geelong councillor, former assistant director of the Victorian Health Department, and failed contender for Labor preselection in Bellarine before the 2002 election.
Keith Oakley is apparently an anti-fluoridation campaigner, and I didn’t immediately find anything about John Dobinson, but a person of the same name contested Kew as an Independent in 2006, so it’s presumably him.
Katos represents part of the northern part of the seat on council and was not opposed at the last council elections. His family’s fish business is well known. He is winning the poster war, at least from what I see on my drive to work.
Heather Wellington has many billboards up
Wellington’s preferences are to the Libs
Wellington is following the Sarah Henderson model with billboards on trucks.
Wellingtons preference to the Libs might see them over the line here.
LIB GAIN, the last rural seat to fall, simply on the fact that Wellington seems (according to this thread) to be doing enough to pull 10% and draw preferences to the Liberals
From the preliminary VEC figures, Barwon Heads seems to have swung from 58% ALP to around 58% Liberal.
The government really must have made a hash of their community consultation over the Barwon Heads bridge.