Mulgrave – Victoria 2010

ALP 15.8%

Incumbent MP
Daniel Andrews, since 2002.

Geography
Southeastern Melbourne. Mulgrave covers parts of the City of Monash and the City of Greater Dandenong, specifically the suburbs of Mulgrave and Noble Park North and parts of Dandenong North, Noble Park, Springvale and Wheelers Hill.

History
Mulgrave previously existed as a Liberal seat from 1958 to 1967, and was re-established in 2002. The original seat was considered a marginal Labor seat, with a 4.4% margin, but it was won in 2002 by the ALP’s Daniel Andrews, who gained an 11.8% swing.

Andrews was re-elected in 2006, and was then promoted to the ministry. He currently serves as Minister for Health.

Candidates

Political situation
Mulgrave is a safe Labor seat.

2006 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daniel AndrewsALP17,49158.81-1.86
Ashton AshokkumarLIB8,50228.59-2.34
Jon OwenGRN1,9096.42+0.37
Penny BadwalFF1,8396.18+6.18

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daniel AndrewsALP18,28065.77+0.45
Ashton AshokkumarLIB9,51534.23-0.45

Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Mulgrave have been divided into four areas: north, south, east, west. The ALP polled around 66-68% in the east and west of the seat, with the Labor margin varying from 56% in the north of the seat to 72% in the south.

Polling booths in Mulgrave at the 2006 state election. North in yellow, East in red, West in green, South in blue.

 

Voter groupGRN %FF %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
East6.126.0066.898,11029.18
West5.445.9668.338,02128.86
North6.245.7256.254,48916.15
South6.677.4072.793,38812.19
Other votes8.226.3962.933,78713.62
Two-party-preferred votes in Mulgrave at the 2006 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. A seat fashioned out of safe Liberal Glen Waverley and safe Labor Dandenong North. You can clearly see the trend from middle class Glen Waverley/Wheelers Hill in the north to low-rent Springvale and Noble Park in the south.

    Like many safe-ish Labor seats, Dandenong North was marginal during the Kennett era, with talk the Liberals could pinch it in 1996 and 1999. Antony Green often talks about Labor frontbenchers doorknocking this seat in the lead up to the 1999 election to highlight how unexpected the result was.

    It would be a seat the Liberals could pick up if they had a big win, so they’d be wanting to get the margin under double figures at the very least in 2010.

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