Cranbourne – Victoria 2010

ALP 11.3%

Incumbent MP
Jude Perera, since 2002.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Cranbourne covers parts of the cities of Casey and Frankston, specifically the suburbs of Carrum Downs, Cranbourne, Frankston North and Skye and parts of Baxter, Clyde, Cranbourne North, Langwarrin, Lyndhurst and Seaford.

History
Cranbourne was first created as an electoral district for the 1992 election. It was first won in 1992 by the Liberal Party’s Gary Rowe. He was re-elected in 1996 and 1999.

Prior to the 2002  election, the redistribution redraw the boundaries to make it much more favourable to the ALP. The margin shifted from 5.7% for the Liberal Party to 1.6% for the ALP. The ALP’s Jude Perera gained a 9.2% swing, winning the seat off Rowe.

Perera was re-elected in 2006, gaining a slight swing to increase his margin from 10.8% to 11.3%.

Candidates

Political situation
Cranbourne is reasonably safe for the Labor Party.

2006 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jude PereraALP19,71955.10+0.86
Luke MartinLIB11,81833.03-3.47
Mark HermansFF2,2066.16+6.16
Hilary BrayGRN2,0425.71-1.68

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jude PereraALP21,92761.29+0.50
Luke MartinLIB13,85138.71-0.50

Booth breakdown
Polling booths in Cranbourne have been divided into four areas: Cranbourne in the west, Langwarrin in the south, Frankston in the east, and Carurm Downs in the middle of the other three.

The ALP’s margin varied from 66% in Frankston to 56% in Langwarrin. Family First outpolled the Greens in Cranbourne, Carrum Downs and Frankston, while the Greens outpolled Family First in Langwarrin.

Polling booths in Cranbourne at the 2006 state election. Cranbourne in blue, Carrum Downs in orange, Langwarrin in green, Frankston in yellow.

 

 

Voter groupGRN %FF %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Cranbourne5.206.4761.9510,30028.79
Carrum Downs4.786.3064.158,74524.44
Langwarrin6.005.3556.515,01314.01
Frankston6.156.3866.254,35912.18
Other votes7.056.0057.267,36120.57
Two-party-preferred votes in Cranbourne at the 2006 state election.

1 COMMENT

  1. This seat used to extend from Cranbourne itself into the rural areas around Western Port, making it a fairly comfortable Liberal seat. The redistribution abolished Frankston East and merged most of that seat with the urban bits of Cranbourne, with the rural parts going into Bass. There’s still plenty of undeveloped rural areas between Frankston and Cranbourne, so it’s a bit of an awkward seat in two clear parts.

    Cranbourne and Langwarrin are fairly typical outer suburban, while North Frankston contains alot of older public housing areas. The Liberals held both Cranbourne and Frankston East during the Kennett era so this is still a seat that can swing big if the Liberals do well next week.

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