Carrum – Victoria 2010

ALP 6.7%

Incumbent MP
Jenny Lindell, since 1999.

Geography
Southern Melbourne. Carrum covers suburbs along Port Phillip Bay, including southern parts of the City of Kingston and the northern parts of the City of Frankston.

History
Carrum was first created for the 1976 election. It has been won by the ALP at every election except for the 1996 election, when it was won by the Liberal Party.

Carrum was first won in 1976 by the ALP’s Ian Cathie, who had previously been a member of the Legislative Council for South East Province from 1964 to 1970. Cathie served as a minister in the Labor state government from 1982 until his retirement at the 1988 election.

Cathie was succeeded in 1988 by Mal Sandon. He had previously been an MLC representing Chelsea Province from 1982 until earlier in 1988. He served as a minister in the state government from 1990 until 1992. Sandon lost his seat in 1996 to the Liberal Party’s David Lean.

Lean held the seat for one term, losing in 1999 to the ALP’s Jenny Lindell. She has served as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly since 2006.

Candidates

Political situation
Carrum has a long record of being won by the ALP, but its margin makes it vulnerable if the Liberal Party performs well.

2006 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jenny LindellALP16,84647.92-5.07
Jeff ShelleyLIB13,39238.10+3.09
Carlos LopezGRN3,1288.90-1.61
Michael McLeanFF1,5503.58+3.58
Ronnie MusterIND2700.77+0.77
Alan ThompsonIND2590.74+0.74

2006 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jenny LindellALP19,93556.71-5.45
Jeff ShelleyLIB15,21943.29+5.45

Booth breakdown
Booths in Carrum have been divided into three areas: the north, centre and south of the seat. The ALP polled over 62% at the southern end of the seat, but polled around 55-56% in the centre and north of the seat.

Polling booths in Carrum at the 2006 state election. South in blue, Central in yellow, North in green.

 

Voter groupGRN %ALP 2CP %Total votes% of votes
Central8.4856.9812,98536.86
North9.4755.839,39726.68
South9.8562.085,11814.53
Other votes8.2753.687,72421.93
Two-party-preferred votes in Carrum at the 2006 state election.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Demographic change is probably helping the Liberals here. Areas like Carrum and Edithvale were pretty low rent when first developed, but the bayside location seems to be attracting a more affluent demographic.

  2. What’s up with the big 59% Lib booth? It’s totally out of whack with the rest of the seat, by about 20%. Is that one of those ‘canal estates’ or something?

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