Lyons – Tasmania 2021

Incumbent MPs

  • Guy Barnett (Liberal), since 2014.
  • Jen Butler (Labor), since 2018.
  • Mark Shelton (Liberal), since 2010.
  • John Tucker (Liberal)*, since 2019.
  • Rebecca White (Labor), since 2010.

*Tucker filled a casual vacancy caused by the resignation of Rene Hidding on 12 March 2019.

Geography

Tasmania’s largest seat by area, Lyons includes parts of every region of the state. The seat stretches from the outskirts of Devonport and Launceston in the north to the outskirts of Hobart in the south, as well as the central highlands and the east coast of Tasmania.

Redistribution
Lyons retracted in the north, losing the remainder of the Latrobe and West Tamar council areas to Braddon and Bass respectively, while gaining the remainder of Meander Valley on the southern edge of Launceston (including Hadspen and Blackstone Heights) from Bass. Lyons expanded in the south, taking in the remainder of Brighton council (including Old Beach) and parts of Clarence council (including Richmond) from Franklin.

History
Lyons was first created for the 1986 election, sharing a name and boundaries with the federal electorate of Lyons. This replaced the seat of Wilmot, which had previously covered central Tasmania since the introduction of proportional representation in 1909.

Wilmot tended to favour conservative parties, and the conservative parties held the district by a 4-2 margin for the first five elections under proportional representation. At the 1922 election, the Nationalists lost two of their four seats to the Country Party.

In 1925, the ALP won a third seat for the first time, while the other Country Party seat was won by an independent. The major parties each won three seats in 1928, before the Nationalists returned to a 4-2 majority in 1931. The fourth Nationalist seat was lost to an independent in 1934, and Wilmot produced a 3-3 split in 1937. The ALP won a 4-2 majority once only, in 1941, before Wilmot reverted to a 3-3 split between the ALP and the Liberal Party at the 1946, 1948, 1950, 1955 and 1956 elections.

When a seventh seat was added in 1959, the ALP won a fourth seat. The Liberals and ALP maintained at least three seats each from 1959 until 1989, with the major parties competing over the seventh seat. The ALP won a 4-3 majority in 1959, 1964, 1972, 1976 and 1979, with the Liberals winning four seats in 1969, 1982 and the renamed seat of Lyons in 1986.

The 1989 election saw the ALP lose their third seat to independent Green Christine Milne. This 4-2-1 split was maintained in 1992. As part of the swing away from the Liberal government in 1996, the ALP regained its third seat off the Liberals.

The reduction in numbers in Lyons in 1998 saw Milne’s seat and one of the three Liberal seats eliminated, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP. The 2002 election saw the Liberals lose yet another seat to Greens candidate Tim Morris. The ALP won three seats, alongside one Green and two Liberals. This result was maintained in 2006.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party. Labor MPs David Llewellyn and Heather Butler both lost their seats, which went to the ALP’s Rebecca White and the Liberal Party’s Mark Shelton.

The Liberal Party gained a third seat in 2014 off the Greens, with Tim Morris losing his seat after twelve years in parliament. This result was repeated in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
The Liberal Party did very well here in 2018. This electorate is often a swing electorate and is one of the ones where Labor or the Greens would hope to make gains if there is to be a centre-left majority.

2018 result

CandidateVotes%QuotaRedist %
Guy Barnett9,45413.70.8194
Rene Hidding8,50412.30.7370
Mark Shelton8,37412.10.7258
Jane Howlett5,2597.60.4558
John Tucker3,4044.90.2950
Liberal Party 34,995 50.6 3.0330 50.7
Rebecca White16,33823.61.4160
Janet Lambert1,7832.60.1545
Jen Butler1,6162.30.1401
Darren Clark1,4012.00.1214
Kylie Wright9201.30.0797
Gerard Gaffney7521.10.0652
“Australian Labor Party ” 22,810 33.0 1.9769 33.6
Fraser Brindley1,9052.80.1651
Lucy Landon-Lane8321.20.0721
Helen Hutchinson8181.20.0709
Glenn Millar5010.70.0434
Gary Whisson4630.70.0401
Tasmanian Greens 4,519 6.5 0.3917 6.5
Michael Kent1,9772.90.1713
Chris Reynolds1,0441.50.0905
Bob Vervaart7681.10.0666
Jacqui Lambie Network 3,789 5.5 0.3284 5.0
Shane Broadby6230.90.0540
Andrew Harvey6210.90.0538
Matthew Allen5960.90.0517
Wayne Turale5350.80.0464
Carlo Di Falco4230.60.0367
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 2,798 4.0 0.2425 3.8
Kim Peart1580.20.0137
Tennille Murtagh1530.20.0133
Total Others 311 0.5 0.0270 0.5
Informal4,1745.70.0000

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north, central and south. Lyons covers all or part of twelve council areas, and these council boundaries have been used to divide booths into three areas.

                        • Central – Break O’Day, Central Highlands, Glamorgan/Spring Bay, Northern Midlands, Southern Midlands.
                        • North – Kentish, Meander Valley.
                        • South – Brighton, Clarence, Derwent Valley, Sorell, Tasman.

The Liberal vote varied substantially between the north (59.6%) and the south (42%). Labor narrowly outpolled the Liberals in the south with 43.1%, but only polled 24.1%.

The Greens did best in the north, with their vote worst in the centre of the electorate.

Voter groupLIB %ALP %GRN %Total votes% of votes
South42.043.15.921,89732.4
Central54.629.65.716,30724.1
North59.624.17.710,46215.5
Other votes50.632.06.913,67520.2
Pre-poll56.729.47.45,3447.9

Election results in Lyons at the 2018 Tasmanian election
Toggle between primary votes for the Liberal Party and the Labor Party.

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6 COMMENTS

  1. In my opinion if there is ANY seat the Liberals lose a member it will be this one. Lyons isn’t as friendly to the Coalition as Bass and Braddon and the Federal election proved that. If the Liberals lose a seat here it won’t be to Labor but it will be lost the the Greens instead which would make up 2 Liberal, 2 Labor and 1 Green

  2. I’d imagine that if Labor couldn’t pick up the seat in 2018, it would be more difficult now, despite their leader remaining in the seat.

    Also, whilst there was a swing towards Labor in this seat in the federal election in 2019, Jessica Wheelan’s scandal and disendorsement, and a weaker than average preference flow from the Nationals (75%), UAP (56%), and PHON (54%), probably explains that. Without the scandal, there would be a reasonable chance I’d imagine of the Liberals picking it up considering how Northern Tasmania swung.

    However, I would agree with Daniel that this would probably be the easiest seat for one of Labor or the Greens to pick up from the Liberals out of the three Northern seats (Lyons, Bass, Braddon). I just don’t think it will be this election due to Gutwein’s popularity, the government’s handling of the pandemic, and the fact that this doesn’t appear to be the “it’s time election” where people grow tired of the government. It appeared that way before the pandemic but now not so much.

  3. It says toggle between the Labor, Liberal and Greens but there is no Greens option 🙁 (I must say your graphics are a great resource btw!)

  4. Ah sorry, I set a bar of including parties who polled 7% or more. For now I’ve just corrected the caption but if there’s a surge of interest in the Greens in Lyons I can look at adding that once the other guides are done.

  5. i think the liberals will hold their current seats. This seat should have been won by the Liberals at the 2019 federal; election they made a big mistake with their choice of candidate.

  6. With former Lyons MP, Tim Morris running as a support candidate for the Greens, it will be interesting to see which Greens candidate ends up on top and the likely new Greens MP for Lyons. Morris was a very popular and widely respected MP during his term.

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