Newland – SA 2022

ALP 0.3%

Incumbent MP
Richard Harvey (LIB), since 2018.

Geography
North-eastern Adelaide. Newland covers the suburbs of Banksia Park, Fairview Park, Hope Valley, Modbury, Paracombe, Ridgehaven, St Agnes and Tea Tree Gully, and parts of Modbury North.

Redistribution
Newland moved to the west, losing areas on the outskirts of Adelaide to Schubert, including Inglewood, Forreston and Kersbrook. Newland also lost Vista to Morialta, and gained Modbury North from Florey. These changes flipped the seat from a Liberal margin of 2.0% to a Labor margin of 0.3%.

History
Newland has existed as an electorate since since the 1977 election, and has alternated between Labor and Liberal members.

John Klunder won the seat for the ALP in 1977. He lost to the Liberal Party’s Brian Billard in 1979, and won the seat back in 1982. In 1985, he shifted to the seat of Todd, which he held until 1993.

Dianne Gayler won Newland for the ALP in 1985, and held it for one term until 1989, when she lost to the Liberal Party’s Dorothy Kotz.

Kotz was the first Member for Newland to serve consecutive terms in the seat, and ended up serving four terms. Kotz served as a minister in the Liberal governments of the 1990s, and retired in 2006.

In 2006, a 12.5% swing to the ALP saw Tom Kenyon gain the seat. He was re-elected in 2010 and 2014 despite swings to the Liberal Party at both elections.

The electorate was redrawn prior to the 2018 election to be a notional Liberal seat with a very slim margin. Kenyon was defeated in 2018 by Liberal candidate Richard Harvey.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Frances Bedford is leaving her seat of Florey to contest Newland.

Assessment
Newland is a very marginal seat and will be in play in 2022.

2018 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Richard HarveyLiberal8,37636.6-6.633.9
Tom KenyonLabor7,77034.0-7.133.1
Rajini VasanSA-Best3,73016.3+16.313.6
Shane BaileyIndependent3541.5+1.57.3
Stephanie StewartGreens1,2745.6-2.05.6
Martin LeedhamAustralian Christians1,0114.4-3.84.4
Sandra WilliamsDignity3661.6+1.61.7
Others0.5
Informal1,0504.4

2018 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Tom KenyonLabor10,99348.0-1.850.3
Richard HarveyLiberal11,88852.0+1.849.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: north-east, south-east and south-west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two areas, with 50.2% in the north-east and 54% in the south-west. The Liberal Party won 50.2% in the south-east and 53.3% amongst other votes.

The SA-Best primary vote ranged from 8.8% in the south-west to 15.1% in the south-east.

Voter groupSAB prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South-East15.149.86,85530.0
South-West8.854.06,63229.0
North-East14.350.23,71016.2
Other votes17.246.75,67024.8

Election results in Newland at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and SA-Best.

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20 COMMENTS

  1. Bedford won’t win against a Labor incumbent HOWEVER she could certainly determine whether Liberal or Labor win this seat. Even if she comes 2nd place that would be in expense of Labor, And I can certainly see Labor voters punishing her by putting the Liberals over her. And knowing the troubles the Marshall government has had with independents they probably want rid of them all, So it wouldn’t be totally surprising if they put Labor above Bedford.

    Is there any precedent for incumbent independents to run against incumbent colleagues? and if so has one ever successfully defeated the latter?

  2. Bedford is running here primarily because she lives in this electorate and her electorate office is here too.

  3. Sorry I didn’t realise it was a Liberal incumbent. I just saw ALP 0.3% but regardless. The Liberals will try their hardest to fend this off from an independent. and why would Labor voters preference Bedford when she left the party? This will be interesting to watch.

  4. This is a blunder by Bedford – it will be hard for her here since it is a swing seat and typically has high votes for both main parties – she won Florey partially since she came second due in part to the low liberal vote.

  5. Marko, do you think she would’ve done better in Playford? That electorate has shifted so much over the last two redistributions, it’s a totally different seat.

  6. I think she should have re-contested Florey. It has no other sitting member so she gains an advantage plus it is typically a very red seat so she can get ahead of the libs on primary votes.

  7. Sorry I meant Florey, not Playford.

    Marko, I think you are putting too much emphasis on which seat has an incumbent and the balance of the other parties and ignoring the area which Bedford actually has represented and who actually supports her.

    The 2018 version of Florey was about half of the old Florey and other half came mostly from Playford. And Bedford did much better in the eastern end (the parts she already covered), and most of those areas have now been split up into other seats, partly Newland but also Enfield, Torrens and Wright. Her 2CP in Florey->Florey was 50.8%, compared to 55.2% in Florey->Enfield, 56.8% in Florey->Torrens and around 69% in Florey->Newland and Florey->Wright.

    I don’t think she has any great options since her old seat has effectively been carved up and no longer exists but I don’t think the old Florey was the best choice. Yes she would have attracted some votes in the other half but it would have been a lot of people who don’t know her.

  8. In actual fact, Florey will have a contesting sitting MP in the form of current Playford member Michael Brown.

    Bedford’s performance in 2018 is interesting: she got over 30% of the primary vote with double digit drops in the vote share of both major parties. If she repeats that performance in 2022, she’ll win Newland. Though it’s possible that many Liberal voters voted tactically in the normally safe Labor seat of Florey; that might not be repeated in marginal Newland.

    The other wildcard in Newland is the possible candidacy of former Labor MP Tom Kenyon, who has since joined a re-formed Family First.

  9. There seems to be large shifts in this part of Adelaide, at the last election Jack Snelling (then Playford MP) also attempted to shift to Florey district before deciding that he would not seek re-election.

    Maybe SA could change to have less regular re-distributions (like the eastern states), having them every 2 election cycles. This would avoid the problem of having MP’s continually move each time their home is drawn out of a district.

  10. I did not know this. Who will run in Playford? I still feel that Florey would be an easier redistricting race for Bedford than Newland due to the lower Lib primary.

  11. This is a rare example of a redistricting race – two incumbents running against each other due to redistribution – I am wondering when redistricting races have happened in Australian political history?

  12. This one takes the cake at 9 Candidates!!! Some electorates have 7, but none have 8, so this one really is a standout! It could be due to it’s extremely marginal status and with two MPs fighting it out, there could be a real split in votes all over the place. Interestingly Harvey (LIB) drew top with Bedford (IND) drew bottom on the ballot.

  13. Libs preferencing Labor before Bedford
    Labor preferencing Bedford before Libs
    Bedford running open ticket
    Greens preferencing Labor before Bedford
    Family First Labor before Libs and then Bedford

  14. Sounds like this incarnation of Family First is a lot more to the centre of the spectrum, compared to the previous lot who seemed to just be a vote bank for the Liberals.

  15. In response to Marko, there are many examples of redistricting races. One example was Bruce in the 1996 federal election, after Victoria lost a seat in reapportionment. Then Corinella MP Alan Griffin defeated Liberal MP Julian Beale.

    Wilson, the current incarnation of Family First in SA was founded by two ex Labor MPs, Jack Snelling and Tom Kenyon, which might explain why it seems more of a centrist party rather than being conservative leaning.

  16. let’s not forget about Cowan this year between Anne Aly and Vince Connelly, given the abolition of Stirling.

  17. I wonder if Labor’s pledge to stop paid parking at Tea Tree Plaza will have an impact here. The SDA union of which Malinauskas was formerly the head is running a big campaign on this issue.

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