Mawson – SA 2022

ALP 0.7%

Incumbent MP
Leon Bignell, since 2006.

Geography
Southern fringe of Adelaide and rural areas to the south of Adelaide. The seat covers the Adelaide suburbs of Aldinga, Aldinga Beach, Port Willunga, Willunga, Sellicks Beach, Tatachilla and McLarens Flat, as well as the towns of Yankalilla, Myponga, Sellicks Beach and Cape Jervis, as well as the entirety of Kangaroo Island.

Redistribution
Mawson expanded slightly to take in Maslin Beach from Kaurna. This change increased the Labor margin from 0.3% to 0.7%.

History
Mawson has existed since the 1970 election. The ALP and Liberal Party have exchanged the seat back and forth, with the ALP winning the seat a majority of the time.

Two successive Labor MPs held the seat from 1970 to 1979. In 1979, the Liberal Party’s Ivar Schmidt won the seat for one term, losing in 1982.

Susan Lenehan won the seat for the ALP in 1982. She went on to serve as a minister from the late 1980s until 1993. In 1993, she attempted to move to the new seat of Reynell, but lost the race.

The Liberal Party’s Robert Brokenshire replaced Lenehan in Mawson in 1993. He went on to win re-election in 1997, and served as a minister from 1998 until the government’s defeat in 2002. Brokenshire then served as a shadow minister, until he lost his seat in 2006.

Brokenshire went on to join the Family First Party and was appointed to fill a casual vacancy in the South Australian Legislative Council in 2008. He was re-elected to the Legislative Council at the 2010 election. He held his seat until his defeat in 2018.

Labor’s Leon Bignell won Mawson in 2006 and has been re-elected three times. The seat was significantly redrawn prior to the 2018 election to expand to Kangaroo Island and the Fleurieu Peninsula, which weakened Labor’s position by almost 9%, but Bignell held on.

Candidates

Assessment
Mawson is a very marginal Labor seat.

2018 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Leon Bignell Labor 7,688 34.7 +1.7 35.4
Andy Gilfillan Liberal 7,697 34.7 -9.7 34.6
Hazel Wainwright SA-Best 4,142 18.7 +18.7 18.1
Ami-Louise Harrison Greens 1,789 8.1 -3.4 8.2
Heidi Greaves Australian Christians 867 3.9 -4.7 3.8
Informal 760 3.3

2018 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Leon Bignell Labor 11,149 50.3 +4.5 50.7
Andy Gilfillan Liberal 11,034 49.7 -4.5 49.3

Booth breakdown

Booths in Mawson have been divided into four areas: north-east, north-west, Yankalilla and Kangaroo Island.

There was a lot of variation in the two-party-preferred vote across the seat. Labor won a large 62.2% majority in the north-west and a slim 51% majority in the north-east, while the Liberal Party managed 56% in Yankalilla and over 69% on Kangaroo Island.

SA-Best came third, with a primary vote ranging from 16% in the north-west and Kangaroo Island to 21.5% in Yankalilla.

Voter group SAB prim % ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-West 16.0 62.2 6,949 30.3
North-East 17.2 51.0 5,219 22.8
Yankalilla 21.5 44.0 2,924 12.7
Kangaroo Island 16.0 30.7 2,203 9.6
Other votes 20.4 47.7 5,641 24.6

Election results in Mawson at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and SA-Best.

Become a Patron!

13 COMMENTS

  1. Bignell will hold on. He is the Peter Watson of South Australia. Always seems to surprisingly win and got a 4% swing in his favour last time. Hard working local member and on current polling he shouldn’t have much to worry about.

  2. Im confused why he had to quit Labor. What law in South Australia says the speaker has to be independent? Is this new. I thought it was only a British thing.

  3. Daniel, I believe SA did pass legislation in 2021 (perhaps forced by Labor and all crossbenchers) to make a requirement that the Speaker must be independent similar to the British convention.

  4. Either way, Bignell will easily hold on but it will be IND vs Lib. Labor could even refuse to stand or if they do, run dead and not campaign, and some Labor mps will ask for permission to campaign for Bignell.

  5. Daniel, I wonder if Bignell may simply opt to retire instead of running for re-election. He has served in parliament since 2006, which would be 12 consecutive years by 2028 (the next election).

    Many Speakers often tend to retire after serving in the role, especially if they are seen as low profile and have been unable to obtain a Cabinet role when their party was previously in government (which is probably the case with Bignell and also Peter Watson for Albany, WA).

    Either way, if Bignell does step down then the seat of Mawson would become highly competitive and the Liberals would probably be favoured to recover the seat, especially if support for Labor declines by the time the next election comes around.

  6. Other Speakers who have chosen to retire after serving in the role include Jonathan O Dea (Liberal MP for Davidson, NSW) and also Tony Smith (Federal MP for Casey).

  7. Correction, Bignell would have served 22 consecutive years in office by the time of the next election (2028). It is not that often that MP’s will serve for that long, as they tend to retire before reaching the 20-year mark.

  8. Since the rural seats are generally under quota and the metro seats over, I can see a scenario where Mawson loses its rural territory at the redistribution and returns to being a purely urban seat.

    If that happens it would become fairly safe for Labor even if Bignell retired.

  9. Yoh An, You mean 2026 and 20 years, You are mistaken with Federal 2028. The last SA election was 2022, 4 years is 2026.

  10. Bignell has a huge personal vote in this neck of the woods. Last election think he won all the booths even in Kangaroo Island.

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here