Florey – SA 2022

IND 1.9% vs ALP

Incumbent MP
Frances Bedford, since 1997.

Geography
North-eastern Adelaide. Florey lies entirely within the Salisbury council area, covering Ingle Farm, Mawson Lakes, Parafield, Para Hills, Para Hills West, Para Vista and Pooraka.

Redistribution
Florey shifted north, taking in a large part of the seat of Playford, including Mawson Lakes, Parafield, Para Hills and Para Hills North. Florey lost Modbury North and Valley View, with this area split between Wright, Newland, Torrens and Enfield. 46.4% of enrolment in the new seat has been moved from Playford.

It is difficult to estimate a margin for the sitting independent with such a large part of the seat. Bedford did best in the parts of Florey moved into other seats – her two-candidate-preferred vote in the remaining part of Florey was 50.8%, while she polled 61.6% in the remainder (which has been broken up and shared between other seats).

Labor’s two-party-preferred vote was 2.3% better in the remaining part of Florey than in the area added from Playford, so I have assumed Bedford’s two-candidate-preferred in the new area is 2.3% better than the area already included.

History

Florey has existed since 1970, and has been held by the ALP at all but one election.

Charles Wells held the seat for the Labor Party from 1970 to 1979, followed by Harold O’Neill from 1979 to 1982.

Bob Gregory won the seat in 1982, and held the seat until his loss in 1993.

The Liberal Party’s Sam Bass won the seat in a shock result in 1993. He held the seat for one term, and in 1997 lost to Frances Bedford.

Bedford has been re-elected four times.

A redistribution following the 2014 election moved a majority of voters in Playford into Florey, and Bedford was thus challenged for Labor preselection by Playford MP Jack Snelling, who won. Bedford resigned from the ALP following this preselection defeat to sit as an independent. Snelling subsequently decided to retire. Bedford was re-elected to the redrawn Florey as an independent in 2018.

Candidates
Sitting independent MP Frances Bedford is shifting to the neighbouring seat of Newland, while Labor MP Michael Brown is shifting to Newland from Playford.

  • Felicity Green (Greens)
  • Tessa Kowaliw (Independent Community Counts)
  • Janice McShane (Liberal)
  • Daniel Masullo (Family First)
  • Michael Brown (Labor)

Assessment
Florey is a difficult seat to predict. Almost half of the electorate is new to Florey and has not been represented by Bedford. Even worse, Bedford’s strongest areas were all removed from the seat. It is possible Bedford will instead choose to run somewhere else, in which case Labor will win easily.

2018 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Rik MorrisLabor7,45132.8-17.140.4
Gagan SharmaLiberal4,76821.0-13.421.5
Frances BedfordIndependent6,96230.6+30.614.5
Adam GattGreens1,1014.8-1.85.9
John PeakeAustralian Christians1,1325.0-4.15.4
Geoff RussellAnimal Justice8853.9+3.92.2
Suzi WaechterDignity4181.8+1.81.1
Others9.0
Informal1,6216.7

2018 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Frances BedfordIndependent12,74656.151.7
Rik MorrisLabor9,97143.948.3

2018 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Rik MorrisLabor13,85261.0+1.963.4
Gagan SharmaLiberal8,86539.0-1.936.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Florey have been split into three categories: Pooraka, Mawson Lakes and the east.

The Mawson Lakes was entirely contained within Playford prior to the redistribution, and Labor polled 61.9% of the two-party-preferred vote there.

Pooraka was entirely contained in Florey, and Labor polled 55% of the two-candidate-preferred vote there. The east was split between the two electorates. Labor polled 54% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the east, with Bedford on 31.5% and the Liberal Party on 14.4%.

Voter groupALP 2CPLIB 2CPIND 2CPTotal votes% of votes
East54.114.431.59,76145.2
Mawson Lakes61.938.10.04,99923.1
Pooraka55.00.045.03,36915.6
Other votes49.113.837.13,47416.1

Election results in Florey at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Labor vs Liberal/Independent), two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and independent candidates.

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2 COMMENTS

  1. Bedford seems popular so I imagine she’ll hold this until she retries or screws up.

    Labor will probably concentrate more on King,;Newland and Torrens

  2. The interesting thing here is that Florey has traditionally been a Modbury based seat. In two redistributions it’s become completely unrecognisable. Or if it is recognisable, it’s the old Playford, which used to be centred on Ingle Farm. That’s going to make it hard for Bedford; most of the area she represented from 1997 to 2018 is now split between Wright and Newland.

    The Labor member for Playford Michael Brown has announced his intention to run in Florey, as the previous member Jack Snelling intended to do last time. Speaking of Snelling, he’s now part of a newly revived Family First, though apparently he’s not going to be a candidate.

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