Bragg – SA 2022

LIB 17.8%

Incumbent MP
Vickie Chapman, since 2002.

Geography
Eastern Adelaide. Bragg covers suburbs of Adelaide, stretching from those immediately to the south-east of the Adelaide city centre, out to the foot of the Adelaide Hills. Most of the electorate’s population lies in the City of Burnside, with a minority in the Adelaide Hills and a small area in Mitcham council and Norwood Payneham and St Peters council.

Redistribution
Bragg gained Eastwood, Frewville, Glenside and Glenunga from Unley and also gained Dulwich and Rose Park from Dunstan. Bragg also lost Beulah Park, Kensington, Kensington Park and Kensington Gardens to Dunstan, and lost Auldana to Morilta. These changes increased the Liberal margin from 17.4% to 17.8%.

History
The electorate of Bragg has existed since 1970, and has always been held by the Liberal Party.

The seat was first won in 1970 by David Tonkin. He was elected Liberal leader in 1975, and after losing the 1977 election, he led the Liberal Party into government in 1979. He served as Premier for one term, losing in 1982. He resigned from Parliament in 1983.

Graham Ingerson was elected to Bragg at the 1983 Bragg by-election. He served in the ministry from 1993, and as Deputy Premier from 1996, until he resigned from both roles in 1998. Ingerson retired at the 2002 election.

Vickie Chapman was elected in Bragg at the 2002 election, and has been re-elected three times. She served as Liberal Party deputy leader from 2006 to 2009, and again since February 2013. Chapman has served as deputy premier since the Liberal Party came into government in 2018.

Candidates

Assessment
Bragg is a safe Liberal seat.

2018 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Vickie ChapmanLiberal14,56763.1-0.862.2
Rick SarreLabor5,51323.9-0.422.2
Neil ZwaansGreens2,0729.0-2.18.3
Taylah NeagleDignity9274.0+3.83.6
Others3.7
Informal5412.3

2018 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Vickie ChapmanLiberal15,56667.4+0.367.8
Rick SarreLabor7,51332.6-0.332.2

Booth breakdown

Booths in Bragg have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 64.9% in the south to 69.4% in the north.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central8.467.49,21839.5
South7.564.94,94221.2
North9.469.42,1509.2
Other votes8.370.07,04130.2

Election results in Bragg at the 2018 South Australian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

Become a Patron!

18 COMMENTS

  1. Could be in play because of Chapman misleading parliament and her scandal that resulted in her resignation as DP. I know this is the Nedlands of SA. But I wouldn’t rule out a surprise win by an independent here.

  2. This is nowhere near the Nedlands of SA, mainly because the Green vote is about 7% too low. Try again with comparing districts across states. It wouldn’t be any of the WA ones bc the best Lib seats are in the western suburbs where the Greens barely ever get below 13%.

    It does look fairly similar (demographics, *normal* vote and relative location to CBD) fairly similar to Applecross and Mount Pleasant in Perth though, minus the river views.

  3. Ryan, Good comparison. Interesting point about River views. In Perth, Proximity to the Swan River attracts premium property prices, in Sydney it is the Harbour even more than the Pacific Ocean, in Adelaide it is the proximity to the Hills as the Torrens River is nothing special. Brisbane is an interesting example the Riverside suburbs tend to be affluent but i have always wondered why the Coastal suburbs are strong for Labor opposite of what you will find in virtually in any other metro area.

  4. Nimalan, I noticed Brisbane doesn’t have as much beach front area compared to Sydney and Melbourne, partly because it is located on the bay rather than the sea. Hence why coastal suburbs are not as desirable as the other cities.

  5. Yoh An, Good point about coastal Brisbane suburbs. Would you say Brisbane has natural features that makes certain parts of the city more desirable? It seems in Brisbane all federal seats have a mixture of affluent and low income areas.

  6. Nimalan, the hillside suburbs located around Kenmore/Moggill may be like the Adelaide Hills area, more affluent and conservative leaning. Riverside suburbs (Hamilton/Ascot) are also fairly desirable and conservative leaning.

  7. Not all coastal Brisbane suburbs are strong for Labor. Some certainly do prefer Labor on 2PP regularly (Sandgate, Wynnum) but others prefer LNP (Cleveland, Wellington Point). Not sure what separates them. Plenty of retirees in all of those suburbs.

  8. This is the Cottesloe of SA except next to the hills and not the seaside – if SA ALP won a victory like WA’s did last year, this would be the last blue seat in Greater Adelaide.

  9. I guess Liberal hold then since there is no independent which is shocking considering the stuff that has happened with Chapman. Maybe they don’t see much of a chance? But I’d find that hard to believe because the seat of Churchlands in WA once had an independent.

    And in QLD Noosa has an independent and they are normally considered rock solid conservative seats. Marshall should guarantee not to promote Chapman back to deputy premier because I’m afraid she is Jackie Trad 2.0 and unlike South Brisbane. This seat isn’t really winnable for the Greens so not much chance for them here.

    My comparison to Nedlands was simply it’s blue Ribbon status. I could see the margin dropping under 10% in landslide years and it would seriously be in play if Labor wins an annihilation like in WA last year. But don’t rule out a future independent win here.

    Again very surprised that Chapman is running. Does she think she will become deputy premier again? I think without her scandal she would have been tipped to succeed Marshall as Liberal leader if he lost or premier if he wins then stands down midterm.

    Probably a 5-7% swing against her here so an upper average swing against the gov here but certainly not enough to put this in jeopardy.

  10. @ Nicholas,
    Apart from St Kilda-Elwood and Frankston central which are strongly Labor voting what other Reliably Ruby Red suburbs are there along the Coast. Suburbs such as Carrum, Chelsea are more marginal and there is long term drift to the Libs as people are priced out of coastal suburbs closer to the city and these areas are becoming more affluent (see the Issacs thread for more details). Even in the West, Suburbs such as Williamstown/Altona are much more affluent than neighbouring inland suburbs and the Labor vote is softer (compare Altona with Altona North). i agree there are some marginally Labor suburbs though

  11. Yes, I’m including the marginal ones too. The only reliable Liberal-voting coastal suburbs are those between Brighton and Beaumaris, and parts of the Mornington Peninsula.

  12. One thought for you all – maybe Chapman is actually a good local MP. She has won 7 times since 2002.

  13. @ Nicholas, Absolutely agreed about only those suburbs you mentioned as reliably Liberal voting. The only observation i was making is that Coastal suburbs do nevertheless make an area more affluent than hence better for the Libs. In the Outer South East (East of Warrigal Road), the coastal suburbs are much more affluent compare Kingston/Greater Dandenong LGA, same in the West. As much of Melbourne’s population growth is in the North and West these suburbs are among the few where the Libs have an opportunity to actually improve their vote and offsett unfavourable demographic trends. Similar how the Libs have improved in the Outer East in recent years.

  14. Vickie Chapman has resigned and has triggered a by-elecrion.
    This could be vulnerable considering it is only one an 8% margin now but most of that is because of Vickie Chapman scandals as this seat usually is above 12% for the Liberals.

    A strong independent could make this interesting. On the Liberal side if Nicole Flint wants a career in state politics now is her only chance.

    The liberals are favourites to hold this but they don’t have this locked in. The Fisher by-election surprised everyone in 2014, and being 2022 nothing is impossible but an Independent win is more likely than a Labor win.

Comments are closed.