East Hills – NSW 2019

LIB 0.4%

Incumbent MP
Glenn Brookes, since 2011.

Geography
Southwestern Sydney. East Hills covers southern parts of the City of Bankstown, areas on the north and east shore of the Georges River. The seat covers the suburbs of Panania, Revesby, Padstow, Milperra and Condell Park.

History
The electoral district of East Hills was first created at the 1953 election. The seat was held by Labor continuously from 1953 to 2011, with only four people holding the seat during this period.

The seat was first won in 1953 by Arthur Williams. He had been a member of the Legislative Assembly since 1940, first holding the marginal seat of Ryde until 1941, then holding the seat of Georges River from 1941 to 1953. He held East Hills until his retirement in 1956.

Joe Kelly won East Hills for the ALP in 1956. He held the seat until 1973. He was succeeded by Pat Rogan, who held the seat until 1999.

Alan Ashton won East Hills in 1999, and was re-elected in 2003 and 2007.

In 2011, Ashton was narrowly defeated by Liberal candidate Glenn Brookes.

There was a large swing to Labor in New South Wales in 2015, but Brookes gained a tiny swing to hold on despite his slim margin.

Brookes resigned from the Liberal Party in 2016 after his campaign manager was charged with electoral offences, but rejoined the party in 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
East Hills is the most marginal seat in New South Wales. It was even more marginal in 2015, but there was practically no swing in this seat while the rest of the state swung strongly to Labor. Polls suggest that there will be a statewide swing to Labor again in 2019, at which point it’s hard to imagine the Liberal Party holding on with their slim margin.

2015 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Glenn Brookes Liberal 20,975 44.2 +2.9
Cameron Murphy Labor 19,958 42.1 +1.0
Astrid O’Neill Greens 3,141 6.6 +1.7
Violet Abdulla Christian Democrats 2,310 4.9 +0.7
Jean Russell No Land Tax 1,078 2.3 +2.3
Informal 2,124 4.3

2015 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Glenn Brookes Liberal 22,184 50.4 +0.2
Cameron Murphy Labor 21,812 49.6 -0.2

Booth breakdown

Booths in East Hills have been split into three parts: north, south-east and south-west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in southern parts of the seat, with 51% in the south-east and 55% in the south-west.

Labor won 57.6% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north.

Voter group LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South-East 51.1 15,671 33.0
South-West 55.1 10,252 21.6
North 42.4 7,253 15.3
Other votes 51.2 8,859 18.7
Pre-poll 48.8 5,427 11.4

Two-party-preferred votes in East Hills at the 2015 NSW state election

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106 COMMENTS

  2. rezoning at the spot formally known as the Riverlands golf course. It was rezoned by the state government to R2 low density

  3. Antony green needs to explain why there isn’t a swingometer on the NSW election page, This is the 1st election without one

  5. Daniel – Antony did explain. Might’ve been on Twitter. It’s because so many of the expected-to-be-relevant contests aren’t 2PP that a regular 2PP swingometer would be misleading.

  6. Oh Mr Greens logic was optional preferential voting and a very fragmented vote makes that impossible to calculate

  7. Libs: A $1.3Billion redevelopment of Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital, the widening of Henry Lawson Drive, 400 additional commuter car parking spots at Revesby, lifts at East Hills station, a Service NSW Centre in Revesby. Labor: A new police station at Revesby, an end to spot rezoning, a reduction and in some cases a removal of, the access fee to the International and Donestic train stations, funding for an upgrade to Bankstown-Lidcombe Hospital and diverting money from the Stadium spend to schools and hospitals. There are more from both sides. Never in the history of the East Hills electorate have there been so many promises made by the major political parties. Election night will be fascinating as the votes come in, but this seat in particular will be like watching two prize fighters going at it until the last one is left standing. Has anyone got any further commentary on how they think this seat will vote?

  8. would have voted alp last time if it weren’t for dirty tricks………. now with a 5.5% general swing I would expect alp win

  9. So the dirty tricks changed your vote last time mick Quinlivan? curious to hear what you saw or heard that changed your mind

  10. I Have been around 10 Marginal constituency’s around the state, And i have to say that i am very confident that we will win an overall majority. Allot of people are not happy about Labor’s High tax plans, It has really sunk into allot of people. The polls might say a different story but i am very confident of an overall majority for us.

  11. no I don’t live in the electorate but if I did Nothing would have stopped me voting for Mr Murphy but they did change the vote of people in the electorate. Alp won the prepoll but lost .
    Excuse my poor Language….. post should have read ” this electorate would have voted alp…..”

  12. yvonne, there was an anonymous leaflet campaign that strongly implied that the ALP candidate had the same hobbies as George Pell. It was pretty disgusting stuff. Liberal campaign manager Jamil Daniels was acquitted over the matter.

    Same thing going on in this election with a whispering campaign around religious groups (Marionite Catholics, the Rahma Mosque) that the Granville ALP candidate (a practicing Catholic) is a lesbian. The Liberal candidate for Granville, Issa, is a Marionite Catholic.

    These are grubby tactics that do influence people’s votes. I’ve seen plenty of whisper campaigns in local, state and Federal elections over the years, but East Hills was the most blatant in what was an extremely close result. The real culprit has not been identified, but it certainly wasn’t from the ALP!

  13. Charlie, You remind me of the people that said back at home in England that the Tories would win a majority in the 1992 election. Seriously the last time the Coalition won a 3rd term in NSW was Askew in the 60’s/70’s its been a decent 50 years since then. Things have changed allot. since then. Plus he was 1 leader not a party that keeps on changing leaders, This government has had 3 premiers, and ironically the federal government has also had 3. people wonder who will be next leader, I see Labor being the largest party if not get a majority. I see them easily snagging this seat

  15. If this was such a laydown misere, as ALP posters (thanks for the balance Daniel/Mick) claim, why did Daley launch his campaign there on Sunday. its a 50/50 seat and the ALP is so saddled by Cameron Murphy!!!
    Check out pollbludger’s primary vote tracker – Coalition up 4 points from Nov, ALP down 3. And this is an aggregate of all polls. So who’s got the momentum??

  16. Picking up Wendy Lindsay as the candidate here so far has been a win for the Coalition and I think it has given them the opportunity to cut clean from Glenn Brookes.

    It was a very dirty campaign from the last election but it wasn’t helped with Cameron Murphy being parachuted in after his failed bid for Sydney City Council back in 2015. He will have built up his profile more but he is up against a 20+ year local and changing demographics in the area.

    This election will confirm how much the demographics has changed. I’ve heard on the ground that this seat is getting tighter.

  19. Liberals cannot win because do you think any Gen Z (young voter my age) will vote for the Liberals? 95% of them will Vote Labour because the young tend to come out for Labour and they are sick of the toxic liberal/conservative brand

  20. they might vote keep SYDNEY open or animal justice – although they may not realise Labor support the same policies… so votes down the gurgler

  21. people need to consider their vote carefully……. if vote 1 for a party that cannot win…. extend their preference to one who can. eh in Yvonne’s example vote 1 ajp then 2 alp

  22. East Hills has proven to be one of the most fiercely contested seats at this election. Labor’s launch was in Revesby last Sunday and there have been several visits by both leaders.

    It makes you wonder why the Libs went so many months without a candidate.

    I think Labor is more likely to prevail, but all indications are it’s closer than what the bookmakers have it.

  23. She’s only been a member of the party for less than six months and previously ran as an independent- that irkes people

  24. Glen Brookes did the liberals no favours……. he should from their point of view have announced his decision much earlier……..This is the second time Cameron Murphy has contacted.
    People will ask Wendy who?

  25. Ah wrong again Mick. Sorry to keep picking you up on stuff old mate but she has been East Hills citizen of the year and has life long ties to the community.
    Murphy only moved here in 2015 when he was pre-selected. Remind me, how did that go again?

  26. he won the prepoll lost the election …. late minute swing caused by illegal pamphlets and stickers see Mad jacks post.

  27. I live in the electorate all my life and theres is no doubt a demographic shift happening towards the libs

    The reason East hills used to be such an ALP stronghold was because of biggest club in the elecrorate was Revesby workers club which has thousands of members, coincidently where the ALP election launch was

    I’m not a member but the place was busy thursday night and was suprised to see Cameron Murphy corflutes still there at the entrance

    Groundgame wise on the electorate, my observation is that the libs are getting totally outgunned.

    Wendy Lindsay lacks volunteers – she wss handing out vote cards by herself at Padstow station midweek with not much fanfare and there were 2 union NSW guys doing so at the same time. ALP volunteers are aplenty. She seems like a nice candidate but Murphy is also very well qualified and received.

    Both would be better than Brookes who was as useful as a chocolate teapot and achieved nothing for the electorate despite being a marginal for the last 8 yrs!!

  28. Ben – I’d agree but Brooks has had little ground game in 2011 and 2015. The booths will be manned on the day and pre-poll is covered. Sometimes the myth of the ALP groundgame in NSW is not the actual reality. After all they have lost the past 4 elections, Bennelonmg by- election etc.
    There’s little doubt that Wendy Lindsay is an infinitely superior candidate.

  30. Not really. But I know a number who have bought in to assist and they are amazed that she has taken to it so quickly.

  32. Sorry I wasn’t aware that I was in the witness box. But for disclosures sake, I am not assisting with this campaign. Et vous….

  33. pol sci student and live in area. no witness box but I don’t buy it. I think you’re involved in her campaign and so think some comments are coming from that space. Nothing wrong with that of course – good for you for being involved. It’s an interesting seat

  34. Ok believe what you like. Maybe You’ve been spending too much time with ALP types, where being economical with the truth is sometimes is a behavioural default. I prefer not to lie….even when I’m cloaked in anonymity.

  37. I sense a little desperation with the ALP campaign. I see that Murphy has announced that the ALP will widen the major arterial road, Henry Lawson Drive, between the M5 and the Hume Hwy. Brookes announced this last year and the announcement was reaffirmed by Wendy Lindsay and the Roads Minister again this year. This is important policy for those in the western part of the electorate. Why make this announcement less than one week before Election Day? This is a policy announcement that could affect the way scores of people vote. That’s important in this marginal seat. The opportunity to impact the way 1000’s have voted in pre-poll (opened for a week) has been lost. Are the ALP desperate? Is there a sense of panic about their campaign? Or is this a case of campaigning right up until the full time siren sounds?

  38. If this contest is so close, I would expect punters to load into the Liberal candidate at $3.50 on the betting markets. Seems good value based on all the hearsay…

  40. Where the swing to the Liberal Party happened in 2015 was in Padstow, with a strengthening of the Liberal Base in the seat along the Georges River. The areas that stayed Labor from 2011 got stronger for Labor, suggesting that there is a serious fault line developing right through the seat and that is right on the Train Line.

    This is why the suggested announcement about Henry Lawson Drive. Labor might have localized Polling or have investigated the area and might be a bit spooked that the Liberal Party support along HLD/Georges River up to the Train Line continues to grow, along with Milperra and those are some big booths as well. I know the area well and the Wendy Lindsay Banners are pretty solid, with only a handful of Cameron Murphy banners in the area between Padstow and Revesby.

  41. Watching the feed come out of prepoll what is bizarre is the cast of politicians called in to hand out for wendy who have never had anything to do with the area. almost like she can’t explain the policies/hold her own ground.

  45. Don’t consider Cameron is a bad candidate…… labour ran a good campaign
    seat is still undecided….. I am hopeful

  46. Daley horror last week will cost murphy the seat. too many people just couldn’t see Daley as a premier. Now we get another dud MP for four years. Better start building that billion dollar hospital before people cotton on it was a red herring

  47. Shocking result that labor couldn’t win this seat back again with no incumbent and a strong candidate. Sums up labor’s night pretty succinctly

  48. What happened to the easy Labor win in East Hills and Labor majority government that Daniel was spruiking?

  49. Daley. As much as people liked Murphy, they couldn’t get their head around Daley leading the state. He was a disaster in the debate not remembering the figures that he should have known backwards. what a dope. oh well i guess we get a new hospital

  50. It might be worthwhile holding off on any post mortems / reviews / analysis for a little while yet. The two booths yet to register any votes on the Virtual Tally Room site, Bankstown West Public School and Padstow Park Public School, both voted majority ALP in 2015. Murphy’s campaign still has a pulse.

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