Londonderry – NSW 2015

LIB 5.3%

Incumbent MP
Bart Bassett, since 2011.

Geography
North-Western Sydney. Londonderry covers parts of the City of Penrith and the City of Blacktown. The seat covers Londonderry, Castlereagh, Werrington, St Marys, Claremont Meadows, Colyton, Whalan, Willmot, Tregear and Shanes Park.

Map of Londonderry's 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.
Map of Londonderry’s 2011 and 2015 boundaries. 2011 boundaries marked as red lines, 2015 boundaries marked as white area. Click to enlarge.

Redistribution
Londonderry previously covered parts of the Hawkesbury council area, including Kurrajong and Richmond. These areas were transferred to Hawkesbury, with Londonderry shifting south. Londonderry gained Shanes Park from Riverstone, Willmot from Mount Druitt and St Marys and surrounding areas from Mulgoa. Londonderry also lost parts of Cranebrook to Penrith. These changes significantly cut the Liberal margin from 12.3% to 5.3%.

History
The electoral district of Londonderry was first created for the 1988 election. It has always been won by the ALP. Prior to 1988, the area covered by the seat of Londonderry was divided between seats centred on Penrith and the Hawkesbury area.

In 1988, Londonderry was won by former rugby league player Paul Gibson, running for the ALP. In 1999, following a redistribution which created more seats in the Blacktown area, Gibson moved to Blacktown, an even safer Labor seat. Gibson was re-elected in Blacktown in 2003 and 2007.

Gibson was succeedeed in Londonderry in 1999 by Jim Anderson, who had won the seat of St Marys in 1995. St Marys was abolished in 1999, and some of the area was transferred to Londonderry.

Anderson died on the day of the 2003 election, voiding the contest in Londonderry. A supplementary election was held two months later, which the ALP’s Allan Shearan won comfortably with no Liberal opposition.

Shearan was re-elected in 2007 with a margin of almost 7%.

In 2011, Shearan lost to Liberal candidate Bart Bassett with a 19% swing.

Following changes to the electorate’s boundaries, Bassett unsuccessfully challenged for Liberal preselection for the safer seat of Hawkesbury in 2014. Later in 2014, Bassett left the Liberal Party to sit on the crossbench after allegations at the Independent Commission Against Corruption that he had accepted donations from a prohibited donor.

Candidates
Sitting independent (and ex-Liberal) MP Bart Bassett is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Londonderry is a marginal seat and it wouldn’t require a huge swing for Labor to win it back. With Bart Bassett’s problems with ICAC and the pro-Labor effects of the redistribution, Labor are in a strong position to win Londonderry back.

2011 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bart Bassett Liberal 22,489 52.7 +18.3 46.8
Allan Shearan Labor 12,953 30.4 -17.2 37.0
Peta Holmes Greens 3,257 7.6 +1.0 6.5
Steven Said Family First 1,992 4.7 +4.7 3.0
Caroline Fraser Christian Democrats 1,955 4.6 -2.1 4.4
Others 2.2

2011 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Bart Bassett Liberal 24,149 62.3 +19.2 55.3
Allan Shearan Labor 14,621 37.7 -19.2 44.7
Polling places in Londonderry at the 2011 NSW state election. East in green, North in red, South in yellow, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Londonderry at the 2011 NSW state election. East in green, North in red, South in yellow, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Londonderry have been split into four parts: east, north, south and west. The urban densely-populated part of the seat is covered by east, south and west. The “east” covers all of those booths in the City of Blacktown near Mount Druitt, while the ‘south’ is centred on St Marys.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred in three areas, with around 57% in the south and west and 75% in the north. The ALP won 59.4% in the east.

Voter group LIB 2PP % GRN % Total votes % of votes
South 57.6 5.6 11,210 26.5
East 40.6 7.7 7,940 18.7
West 57.0 7.5 7,388 17.4
North 75.4 4.0 4,110 9.7
Other votes 55.2 6.8 11,729 27.7
Two-party-preferred votes in Londonderry at the 2011 NSW state election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Londonderry at the 2011 NSW state election.

6 COMMENTS

  2. This used to be a mixed Hawkesbury/western suburbs electorate. Now its a much more exclusively western suburbs electorate. The suburb of Londonderry itself has gone from its geographical centre to its northern edge. St Marys would probably be a more appropriate name for the seat.

    It looks very much like Labor territory now, and should be a straightforward pickup.

  4. morgieb, my guess is that is Orchard Hills Public School, which was in Mulgoa in 2011. A conservative rural district.

  5. Prue Car has been a councillor for a while and is a good candidate. For the reasons others have listed, I’d tip an above average swing here and a Labor gain.

  6. This will be an ALP gain, especially when it swings back to its natural position post-redistribution

Comments are closed.