Willoughby – NSW 2011

LIB 14.5% vs IND

Incumbent MP
Gladys Berejiklian, since 2003.

Geography
Lower North Shore of Sydney. The seat covers most of the City of Willoughby and small parts of Lane Cove and North Sydney local government areas. The seat covers the suburbs of Chatswood, Willoughby, Castle Cove, Middle Cove, Northbridge, Naremburn and Cammeray.

History
The seat of Willoughby was first created in 1894. It was abolished for three elections in the 1920s and again for the 1988 election, but has existed at every other election. The seat has been dominated by the Liberal Party and its predecessors.

The seat was won in 1927 by Edward Sanders, an independent Nationalist. He joined the Nationalist Party and then the United Australia Party, and held the seat until his death in 1943.

The 1943 by-election was won by George Brain. He held the seat until his retirement in 1968.

Laurie McGinty won Willoughby for the Liberal Party in 1968. He served as a minister from 1973 to 1976. McGinty was defeated for preselection in 1978 by Nick Greiner. McGinty ran as an independent, and directed preferences to the ALP. The seat was won by Labor candidate Eddie Britt.

Britt was defeated in 1981 by the Liberal Party’s Peter Collins. He was re-elected in 1984. In 1988, Willoughby was renamed “Middle Harbour”, and Collins won the renamed seat. He became a minister following the 1988 election, moving up in the ranks to become Treasurer in 1993. In 1991, Middle Harbour was renamed Willoughby again.

When the Coalition lost power in 1995, Collins was elected Leader of the Opposition. He did not lead his party to an election, being replaced by Kerry Chikarovski in December 1998. He was re-elected to Willoughby in 1999 and retired in 2003.

Willoughby was won in 2003 by Gladys Berejiklian. She defeated independent Willoughby mayor Pat Reilly by only 144 votes. She was re-elected in 2007, and now serves as Shadow Minister for Transport and Citizenship.

Candidates

Political situation
Willoughby is a safe Liberal seat. Berejiklian saw off independent Willoughby mayor Pat Reilly in 2007 with much more ease than in 2003. While it is not yet known if any independent will run, there does not appear to be any potential candidate who could challenge Berejiklian’s seat in 2011.

2007 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gladys Berejiklian LIB 20,998 50.2 +13.5
Pat Reilly IND 7,456 17.8 -5.6
Linda Beattie ALP 6,354 15.2 -6.5
Mike Steel GRN 4,683 11.2 +0.3
Cherie Kam UNI 1,189 2.8 -1.1
Esther Heng CDP 699 1.7 +0.4
Roy Day DEM 478 1.1 +0.4

2007 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Gladys Berejiklian LIB 22,679 64.5 +7.5
Pat Reilly IND 12,496 35.5 -7.5

Booth breakdown
Booths in Willoughby have been divided into three areas: those around the key suburbs of Chatswood and Willoughby, and those in the southeast of the seat.

The Liberal Party margin over independent candidate Pat Reilly varied from 66.7% in the southeast to under 60% in Chatswood.

Polling booths in Willoughby at the 2007 state election. Chatswood in blue, Willoughby in green, Southeast in orange.
Voter group GRN % ALP % LIB 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Southeast 13.1 14.2 66.7 13,071 31.2
Chatswood 11.0 17.7 59.6 10,414 24.9
Willoughby 8.0 11.9 60.5 10,042 24.0
Other votes 12.3 17.5 71.9 8,330 19.9
Two-party-preferred votes in Willoughby at the 2007 state election.
Labor primary votes in Willoughby at the 2007 state election.
Greens primary votes in Willoughby at the 2007 state election.

3 COMMENTS

  1. The north east of the electorate is Reilly’s base, and the Willoughby North booth with the 53% 2PP for Berejiklian is the booth nearest to where Reilly lives.

    In the absence of Reilly in any future elections, the Liberal primary vote and 2PP in the Willoughby/Castlecrag area will fall into line with those seen in Northbridge and Cammeray.

    If the “ethnic middle class” swing is on in seats like Oatley and Strathfield, watch to see what the high-density booths in Chatswood and Artarmon in this electorate do.

Comments are closed.