ALP 7.5% vs GRN
Incumbent MP
Carmel Tebbutt, since 2005. Previously Member of the Legislative Council 1998-2005.
Geography
Inner Western Sydney. The district of Marrickville covers most of the Marrickville local government area, with the exception of a small part at the western end of the council area and the southeastern corner of the area. The seat also covers a part of the City of Sydney. Suburbs covered include Darlington, Newtown, Stanmore, Enmore, Petersham, Lewisham, Dulwich Hill and Marrickville.
History
There has been an electoral district named Marrickville since 1894, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s when the seat was merged into the multi-member district of Western Suburbs. The seat has continuously elected Labor members since 1910.
The original district of Marrickville covered a smaller area, with the other seats of Newtown-Camperdown, Petersham, Darlington, Newtown-Erskine and Newtown-St Peters covering parts of the modern seat.
The seat was won in 1917 by the ALP’s Carlo Lazzarini, who defeated Thomas Crawford, a former Labor member who had joined the Nationalists over the issue of conscription.
In 1920 Lazzarini moved to the multi-member district of Western Suburbs. He briefly served as a minister from 1921 to 1922, and in 1927 he returned to the seat of Marrickville.
Lazzarini was opposed to Jack Lang’s leadership of the NSW Labor Party, and he was expelled from the ALP in 1936. He rejoined in 1937, but later joined the dissident Industrial Labor Party. Following Lang’s departure he served as an assistant minister in the new Labor state government from 1941 to 1944. He held Marrickville until his death in 1952.
Marrickville was won at the February 1953 election by the Mayor of Marrickville, Norm Ryan. He served as a minister in the state Labor government from 1959 to 1965, and retired in 1973.
Ryan stepped aside in 1973 in favour of Tom Cahill. The son of NSW Premier Joseph Cahill, Tom had won his father’s seat of Cook’s River after his father’s death in 1959. Cook’s River was abolished at the 1973 election, and he moved to Marrickville. He held that seat until his death in 1983.
The 1983 by-election was won by Andrew Refshauge. Following the ALP’s election defeat in 1988 he was elected Deputy Leader. He served in this role until 2005. Refshauge became Deputy Premier when the ALP gained power in 1995. He served in a variety of ministerial roles over the next decade.
In 1995, the Liberal Party was pushed into third place behind the No Aircraft Noise party, who polled over 23% of the primary vote. The Greens came second after preferences in 1999, and the Liberals have never again come in the top two in Marrickville.
When Premier Bob Carr announced his retirement in 2005, Refshauge also announced his retirement, along with senior minister Craig Knowles. The Marrickville by-election was held alongside by-elections in Maroubra and Macquarie Fields.
The ALP ran Carmel Tebbutt, a former Marrickville councillor who had been a Member of the Legislative Council since 1998 and a minister since 1999. The Greens ran Deputy Mayor of Marrickville, Sam Byrne. The ALP’s 10.7% margin was cut to 5.1% in the by-election.
Tebbutt was re-elected in 2007, winning with a 7.5% margin, less than in the 2003 election, but more than in the 2005 by-election.
Candidates
- James Cogan (Independent)
- Fiona Byrne (Greens)
- Carmel Tebbutt (Labor)
- Rosana Tyler (Liberal)
- Jimmy Liem (Family First)
- Kylie Laurence (Christian Democratic Party)
- Paul Quealy (Independent)
- Pip Hinman (Socialist Alliance)
Political situation
Marrickville is a marginal Labor seat. In the current environment, a 7.5% swing is certainly achievable for the Greens.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Carmel Tebbutt | ALP | 19,683 | 46.6 | -1.1 |
| Fiona Byrne | GRN | 13,735 | 32.5 | +4.1 |
| Ramzy Mansour | LIB | 5,305 | 12.6 | -0.2 |
| Angus Wood | IND | 716 | 1.7 | +1.7 |
| Martine Eve-Macleod | DEM | 688 | 1.6 | -0.8 |
| Pip Hinman | SA | 666 | 1.6 | -1.0 |
| Joseph Tuiletufuga | CDP | 634 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Grace Chen | UNI | 557 | 1.3 | -0.8 |
| Patrick O’Connor | IND | 216 | 0.5 | +0.5 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Carmel Tebbutt | ALP | 21,073 | 57.5 | -2.6 |
| Fiona Byrne | GRN | 15,588 | 42.5 | +2.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Marrickville have been divided into five areas based on key suburbs. The ALP won large majorities of 65-70% in the Marrickville and Dulwich Hill areas. They won a slim 53% majority in Petersham-Stanmore, but the Greens won majorities in the Newtown and Camperdown-Darlington.
| Voter group | LIB % | ALP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Marrickville | 11.9 | 70.8 | 11,179 | 26.5 |
| Newtown | 8.9 | 44.2 | 9,156 | 21.7 |
| Petersham-Stanmore | 15.0 | 53.2 | 6,535 | 15.5 |
| Dulwich Hill | 14.8 | 65.4 | 4,877 | 11.6 |
| Camperdown-Darlington | 12.3 | 48.0 | 2,553 | 6.0 |
| Other votes | 14.5 | 54.5 | 7,900 | 18.7 |
Hear, hear,
Whilst there has alway’s been the obligatory posts by propogandists proclaiming the saintly virtues of particular candidates; this site has to date been notable for the capacity of most regular posters to discuss the specific races without the party speils. More importantly, it’s been notable for the willingness of most to engage differing views intelligently & with civility.
Save the evangelism (for whatever party or cause) for other forums.
The worship of numbers for their own sake makes sense if the numbers represent a croquet match, a game of cards or a beer drinking contest – but what’s a stale here all you “hear hear” chaps is whether or not there is a paediatrician available at your local hospital if your kids get sick, whether you can walk home from your bus stop safely after dark or whether you can afford to live in an inner urban area with some sense of dignity if you earn under $60K a year. Politics is the art of feeding, clothing and housing a population – not an esoteric deals club for self-indulgent wannabe actuaries. if you think you can have a CLUE about what motivates voters in a democratic process without the context of lives lived and the social situation in which they live then I suggest your time here is wasted and you should go and invent a better mousetrap. It is YOU who are perverting democracy by stripping it of humanity, not the inverse. If you want to bathe in pure numbers, f*ck off over to sportsbet.com.au and make some money out of your vice so the rest of us can make some sense of what’s happening to this bitter and cranky country we live in today, and in doing so perhaps overcome some of the “slings and arrows of outrageous fortune”, as the Bard would have it.
A psephological blog without a discussion of politics is like a Gin and Tonic without Gin. It doesn’t make sense. It’;s the sort of sloppy intellectualism that lets McDonalds get away with calling itself a restaurant, or North Korea a Democratic Republic. I know classicist economists always used to fret about externalities but, hey, It may sound crazy, but elections do have the odd thing to do with politics. Crazy I know, but hey, that’s life, so suck it up.
And I should know, I’ve been stuffing ballot boxes since 1977.
Jeranglism I don’t think anyone argues politics hasn’t got passion to it. But psephology is about the numbers, as cold as it may seem to you. Electoral commissions and returning officers are about the straight numbers too. It is a normal part of political science and discussion to consider the mechanics as well.
There are precious few websites looking at Australian psephology that don’t get consumed by arguments about policy and politics, and this is one of them. If you are looking for the debate may I suggest Catallaxy or Larvatus Prodeo. Please don’t make this another one.
I’m not quite sure that gentrification leads to swings from Labor to Liberal. It certainly leads to a displacement of the majority, but it’s hard to say that it causes an increase in conservative vote just because the average income is higher.
It’s fairer to say that gentrification leads to a more nuanced race, where a majority first preference outcome isn’t certain.
As much as I enjoy a well written rant (nice one, Jeranglism) allow me to bring this discussion back on topic, and back to the numbers. In Marrickville the Libs candidate Rosana Tyler will run third and hence be the decider. It will be her exhausted vote that gives the seat to Israeli boycotter, Fiona Byrne. Rosanna is the Vice President of the Newtown Synagogue. Election results don’t get much stranger than that…
The Tele’s Simon Benson had an interesting piece on Marrickville yesterday:
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/opinion/greens-a-chance-with-little-lib-help/story-e6frezz0-1226016705145
Agree with Deconst re “gentrification”. In what may have been more blue collar areas, the Lab to Lib due to increased affluence is more prevalent whereas the “gentrified” inner seats are more nuanced, in that their political nature becomes more “fluid”.
By this I mean,;NO poltical party can take their vote for granted. Whilst there are circumstances where they will vote with their wallet; they may also be highly switched in on other issues what are not always in accord with the conservative parties.
Whilst Marrickville, at this point, doesn’t fully fit this bill, I would classify seats such as Drummoyne, Strathfield & Coogee in this mix as well as Balmain.
Whilst I don’t have any polling information in this seat, my understanding is that the ALP are becoming increasingly disillusioned at their prospects of holding it despite having a good local candidate.
Mr Check, can you please explain how the Liberals’ exhausted vote will help the Greens get elected? I thought the whole point of exhausted vote is that it exhausts and it doesn’t assist the election of other candidates.
If you’re positing that voters will swing from Labor to Liberal and exhaust with Liberal, then the reason why the Greens will get elected is because of how struck the Labor vote will get. It has nothing to do with the Greens at all.
If the Liberal candidate is truly keen to keep the Greens out of power in Marrickville, then she should preference Labor. I suggest you write to the Liberal candidate suggesting that if you’re truly keen to Keep Carmel.
Deconst – the logic was explained by the Simon Benson (he’s employed by News Ltd, and wrote a book designed to sink Labor, so perhaps you’ve read it?) in the the link I posted.
In Victoria, the Libs did preference Labor. In Grayndler last August (and before) they preferences Greens, and consequently, Sam Byrne of the Greens almost won (on 25.9% of the primary). The Libs don’t have to make any such decision this time, they can simply exhaust. But lets assume (just for one mad moment), that the Liberal candidate, a prominent Jew, was upset enough by Marrickville boycott of Israel to care what happened in the seat she was standing in?
What do you reckon would be going on in her head?
The Greens will not win 50% on the first count. All votes (and prefs) do matter in cases like this, even when they end up in the “exhausted” rubbish bin.
btw. Am I “truly keen to keep Carmel”? No, not one bit, deconst… I just like looking at how weird and bizarre these situation get. In Marrickville, you couldn’t even dream of anything like this.
There won’t be Liberal preferences to the ALP or Greens in this seat based on their How to Vote ticket.
This seat is just left wing, along with balmain. The difference between these seats and other gentrified seats like Drummoyne, Coogee and Strathfield is that there is no liberal party vote here at all.
In those other gentrified seats like Drummoyne, there is a “liberal” vote, but not a conservative vote. For example, If Tony Abbott went doorknocking where I live (Coogee) most people would slam doors in his face. But if Malcolm Turnbull knocked on the door people would at least give him a fair hearing because he is considered more moderate.
Oh and DB – Labor is still campaigning heavily here so there hasn’t been any giving up yet.
I don’t know what’s going on in Rosana Tyler’s head, and I don’t understand the thrust of your argument.
The Libs once preferenced the Communist party ahead of Labor, and One Nation ahead of Labor at one famous Queensland election, does that have any relevance in today’s age? What happens with preferences everywhere is unique to that particular time and location, especially when it comes to non-major-party contests like here.
What will likely happen with Liberal preferences in Marrickville is that most will exhaust, but the rest will split equally between Greens and Labor. What is most important in Marrickville is who gets the highest first preference vote. If there’s a 1% lead, it’s very unlikely that either candidate could take over from behind.
Fiona’s going to need at least a 12% swing away from Labor, and pick up at least a third of that swing, to win this seat. That’s very likely in this environment. Unless Rosana puts a very hard push to preference Labor, Liberal preferences aren’t going to matter twat here.
Gentrification does not lead to an automatic shift from left to right any more. My experience is that many left wing people these days can hold on to their views when they become more affluent. But this is because their affluence usually arises from employment by the government or related organisations. SUch people do not tend to move to Bellevue Hill or Point Piper where they would be looked down on, but to ‘trendy’ locales like Balmain or the inner west, where they are not likely to meet too many Conservatives.
Jerangalism said: ‘Politics is the art of feeding, clothing and housing a population’
That statement is an example of all that is wrong in so many people’s thinking. Surely the point of government is that it is here to serve the people. If we start giving government the roles you suggest, it will soon take upon itself the role opf arbiter as to how we live and what we think. it will also then ration what we eat and what health treatment we can have. That way lies totalitarianism.
Politics is the art of getting out of the way so the population can feed, clothe and house themselves.
Lachlan – that is good to hear. I want the ALP to win the seat.
I wouldn’t call Balmain a left-wing seat, but I would Marrickville. There is a reasonable chance of a Liberal victory there based on my info depending on preferences. I expect the Liberal candidate to have the highest primary vote in Balmain based on trending. Or put it this way, there is a more of a chance of a Liberal victory in Balmain than the ALP one and considerably so.
Peter the Lawyer – I wouldn’t pay the slightest attention to Jerangalism. He is dirty on the world.
DB: I’ve only met one person on the Balmain campaign (ALP side that is) who affirms your views. Most do not think that the ALP vote will be flowing to the Libs. But again, I still don’t know of this private poll you’re talking about. But that’s not doubting you or anything, I’m genuinely not up to date on Balmain aside from occasionally meeting mates from the campaign.
In regards to ALP morale and disillusionment, obviously we’re very hurt and disillusioned that two of our most progressive and strongest MPs are going to lose their seats for problems which we don’t believe they were personally that complicit in. It doesn’t help that they’re both personally very impressive and fairly likable people.
But you know, if Nathan Rees taught the NSW general public one thing, it’s that progressives in Labor aren’t in the habit of rolling over and saying mum just because the other side is stronger. We’re the people that always goes down fighting if we have to. Verity and Carmel are both good members and staunch progressives, and we’re going to fight tooth and nail to the last second even if we’re disillusioned and low on morale.
Crazemongoose
I for one hope both Firth and Tebbett gets up, Tebbett is one of the ALP best performers, while the Green’s Candidate in Balmain would fit right in with One Nation with her hate filled politics
The Green’s candidate in Balmain is a man…
Fiona Byrne (I assume is who you are referring to) is standing in Marrickville.
The only difference between balmain and marrickville is that one seat has waterfront properties and the other seat is working class. They’ll all vote for the greens or Labor though.
According to this article, a poll in Marrickville shows the Greens will win 57.5-42.5 TPP,
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/nsw-election-2011/deputy-premier-carmel-tebbutt-gone-as-poll-turns-nasty/story-fn7q4q9f-1226020051361
I do not have any information on this seat, however, I do for Balmain, where the Liberals are comfortably polling ahead for the ALP. I’d suggest the MOE might be around 5% on that poll and even on that basis, the ALP are in big trouble here.
DB – does your poll source have ALP or Greens coming second on prefs for Balmain?
There is some sort of weird “push polling” controversy going on in Marrickville, as reported by Crikey today. It all sounds a bit fabricated, but who knows… That boycott has upset a lot of people, but an unsubstantiated insinuation has been made that Labor is the culprit. A bit weird when you think that Labor councillors voted for the boycott motion (I think one of them moved it!) You probably have to be a subscriber for the link to work, but for those tallyroomers who are:
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/14/dirty-tricks-in-marrickville-campaign-illegal-push-polling-claims/
People are suggesting that Tebbutt’s running an effective scare campaign and people think that Labor can still win it. I would be surprised if that happened, but stranger things have happened…..
morgieb: who are “people”?
Anyway, Kevin Rudd was out on the campaign trail today in Marrickville. Still pretty popular. Wise move, by trying to associate Carmel with the glory days of 07-09 federal Labor, which is still remembered very fondly by inner west migrants.
Having Kevin visit a seat was a brilliant strategy in the last federal election… just about the only seat the ALP retained was his own.
Crazedmongoose – sorry mate, I like you, but you have to be kidding… Kevin Rudd was a dud that lost his PM way, Kevin the stud turned to mud and now he’s probably clay!
Nup. We don’t like Kevin 07. I’d suggest his entry into Marrickville was not a positive for the ALP given that he dropped his ETS mantra. It looked more like desperation than a great strategy. I am prepared to eat my words though. I have no numbers on Marrickville ‘cos the Libs can’t win but some Greenie mates tell me that they reckon they have it.
Rudd did it as a favour to Albo & Carmel – what’s the problem with that?
I’m sure Abbott will do a bit of stumping for O’Farrell if required.
I’d tip the Greens if not for their candidate, Marrickville mayor Byrne.
She presumably has her head in the clouds when she talks of her council boycotting Israeli and Chinese goods. I’m reminded of a moment in the TV show “Yes, Minister” when Hacker crosses swords with a bloke from a borough called Thames Marsh and speaks of Russians invading London but saying “Hold it, comrades, as we’re not at war with Thames Marsh, so we’ll take Chelsea instead”. Are Israelis and Chinese suppliers going to travel around Sydney and suddenly pull back when they find themselves in Marrickville?
Besides, with the Liberals exhausting preferences, the Greens will have to bank on the Labor vote falling below its vote so that they lead on primary votes.
Not this time.
DB & PeteD: for the wider populace, sure. But from what I understand that’s not why Kevin was in town. He was there to strengthen the kind of 5% Asian vote and the old Greek migrants. Granted both groups would traditionally be Asian voters anyway, but the strategy to secure them from going Libs then exhausting.
Craziedmongoose, don’t you mean Labor voters?
No, don’t you know that they traditionally vote for the Asian Party out here?
(yeah sorry, my slip)
I’ve just seen some interesting numbers that show a surprisingly high amount of undecided voters around. If Labor has a good final week they might be able to pull it back.
Okay I totally called it. It was EXACTLY as I thought.
Kevin Rudd was in the electorate to speak at a morning tea held esp. for the Asian community in Marrickville (about 7% I believe?). As I said, these are not Green voters but in this climate it’s important to get them voting or at least preferencing Labor rather than switching to Lib and exhausting. Also speaking was Carmel herself and Cr Ernest Wong.
You’re not very impressed by Rudd’s tint as PM, and neither was I. We’re not in disagreement there. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be a political asset in certain situations.
Anyway the reason I only found out about this now is that this started making the rounds in all the Chinese papers.
Item on ABC 7pm news tonight outlining the Greens latest problems in both Marrickville and Balmain…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/22/3170809.htm?site=sydney
Interestingly, it didn’t mention Jamie Parker’s main problem in Balmain, ongoing revelations in two issues of the Sun-Herald and various News Ltd sites about his business affairs.
These were once two winnable seats for the Greens. What does this party DO at it’s pre-selection meetings?
This issue about the boycott is a beat up by political opponents and will probably be seen as such…the Balmain situation seems much more serious and will cause damage far beyond Balmain if its getting airtime.
It’s curious though how the ABC’s parroting Labor media releases when Carmel’s lied many times over the course of her political career. We don’t see much on that from the ABC, but then Fiona had the chance to turn the spotlight onto that as she was interviewed through this.
Frankly, there is not much that Labor could do to win these seats now. The momentum remains behind the Greens campaign and many have already made their mind up to toss Carmel out.
Arggh, not more of the ABC-is-biased-to-everyone-but-who-I-support!
While I expect the Greens to win both Balmain and Marrickville, they’ve had a pretty ordinary campaign. Starting with the barely-sensical catchphrase – ‘Real change for a change’ – a couple of low-rent ‘scandals’ and a bit of misplaced opportunism on local issues, it hasn’t been a good performance and I’m predicting an 11-13% poll; better than ’07 but not great given the collapse in the Labor vote.
Actually, I reckon Labor has, just, won a pretty lacklustre campaign, which may put them in the upper end of the 15-25 seat prediction.
Also, I fail to see how the issue is a ‘beat-up.’ It is what Byrne said after all. If you agree with it, fine, but something like that will be reported and if the Greens didn’t want it in the media they should have made sure that Byrne didn’t say it.
Still, there’s that Tele poll which showed the Greens comfortably ahead when it mattered. Labor may recover a couple of percentage points but their vote will still be hit so hard that they can’t possibly stay in.
If we’re talking about 20%+ swing elsewhere in the state, who’s not to say that won’t happen in Marrickville either? Fiona is still the favourite to win.
Oh, and, the ABC’s not biased, it’s just flawed in its reporting and the Greens response was indeed pretty lacklustre.
The most bizarre thing is that she wants to pick on the most thriving democracy in the middle east to boycott, where arabs have more rights than anywhere else. I have been there, working with human rights lawyers, and some of the acts of violence perpetauted in Syria, Egypt and Iran against minority arab communities is breathtaking. Still good on you Fiona, can’t beat jumping on the trot bandwagon!!!
Mmmm, it does set a dangerous precedent doesn’t it? If Israel deserves such treatment, then surely China, Pakistan, Indonesia and most of Africa and the Middle East deserve the same?
Surely the definition of prejudice is picking on one particular state when others are just as bad if not worse?
We are in dangerous agremeent here Hamish!! Israel, with a completely independent judiciary, free press and regular election cycles (with no disenfranchisment of any voters) looks like a beacon to me.
Mod lib, I can’t agree while the apartheid continues. South Africa was one of the ‘most liberal’ states of the 1970s and 1980s, compared to other African states. but still had a brutal, discriminatory regime.
Hamish’s argument is a straw man. The reason why BDS is pursued is that Israel is indeed otherwise a free trading state so much more sensitive to a BDS campaign than any of the other states mentioned. It’s also a worldwide coordinated campaign, unlike any potential actions against other states.
Regardless, this has nothing to do with the Marrickville election campaign. This isn’t a state issue, it makes as much sense as complaining about aircraft noise.
I am a Labor voter & would hate to see The Greens win any seat in Parliament. The Greens are destructive rather than being constructive! The proposed Carbon Tax is proof of this!
Rubbish. It became an election issue when Fiona made it one.
The simple point is that the Greens pursue sanctions against one state over another for what I see as ideological reasons. It’s ridiculous to say that because Israel is a free trading state that it is therefore fair that it is a traget when compared to states that are run by far worse regimes. It is a prejudiced policy and will alienate a lot of middle class voters.
You may see it as ideological reasons but that’s like saying pursuing ALO’s mentioned carbon tax is done out of ideological reasons. That’s not the truth, the BDS and Carbon Tax are being pursued as one of a suite of real political solutions to difficult problems: apartheid against Palestinians on one, climate change on the other. Neither actions are advanced by the Greens as the only actions that should be done, and the Greens say both need to be carefully monitored as to their effect.
However, both BDS and carbon tax have been demonstrated to be effective and the Greens are only interested in pursuing effective policies that realise progressive outcomes.
At no point did the Greens make BDS a campaign issue for the state election. Clearly it has to be addressed, but Fiona didn’t “make it one”.
Like South Africa, Israel is a case where a boycott is appropriate because of Israel’s relationship to the west. Israel likes to see itself as part of the west, as a modern progressive democracy, yet it’s relationship to the millions of Arabs in land it occupies shows that it more resembles apartheid South Africa than any modern Western state.
If I thought that a boycott of China would be effective then I would support it against them too.
It’s a joke to hold up Israel as a beacon of rights for gays and women while ignoring the Palestinian issue, which is the primary test of human rights in that part of the world.
It is also precisely the sort of action that is appropriate for local government. Marrickville council isn’t attempting to take actions that are in the purview of the federal government. They aren’t banning Israeli goods or Israeli people from the Marrickville council area. They are just saying that, when it comes to purchasing decisions by this council, they won’t choose Israeli products due to the country’s human rights abuses. It is the right of elected local representatives to make purchasing decisions based on conscience to achieve change.
I don’t see how this is any different to the mass boycotts of white South Africa in the last century (which started amongst left-wing councils and unions long before it became national consensus), or councils supporting fair trade, or boycotting Burma (as Marrickville Council did a decade ago, showing what a lie it is to suggest that only Israel has been targetted).