Wright is a new seat, primarily covering areas previously included in Blair and Forde:
- Shayne Neumann (ALP), Member for Blair since 2007.
- Brett Raguse (ALP), Member for Forde since 2007.
Wright covers rural parts of South-East Queensland. Wright covers sparsely populated parts of the Gold Coast hinterland, rural parts of the City of Logan, and the entirety of Lockyer Valley and Scenic Rim council areas. Wright covers the towns of Boonah, Beaudesert, Gatton and Laidley, and comes close to the major centres of Logan, Gold Coast, Ipswich and Toowoomba.
The vast majority of Wright’s population was previously included in Blair and Forde. Blair covered Lockyer Valley and western parts of Scenic Rim LGA. Forde covered the eastern parts of Scenic Rim and those areas in Logan. Small parts of the seat were included in Rankin, Fadden, Moncrieff and McPherson.
As a new electorate, Wright has no history. Both of the main seats previously covering Wright’s territory are also recent creations.
Forde was created at the 1984 election as a southern Brisbane seat as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives. The seat has since moved further south and lies on the edge of the urban part of South-East Queensland.
Forde was first won in 1984 by David Watson (LIB), who lost the seat in 1987 to Mary Crawford of the ALP. Watson was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 1989 and went on to serve as a minister in the Borbidge government and as state Liberal leader from 1998 to 2001.
Mary Crawford held the seat from 1987 until her defeat at the 1996 election, serving as a Parliamentary Secretary for the last two years of the Keating government.
Kay Elson (LIB) won the seat in 1996. She held the seat for eleven years as a backbencher, retiring at the 2007 election.
In 2007 the ALP’s Brett Raguse won the seat. Forde was the safest Liberal seat to be lost in 2007, with the ALP gaining a 14.4% swing.
Blair was created for the 1998 election, and took over Ipswich from the seat of Oxley, which at the time was held by One Nation founder Pauline Hanson. Hanson ran for Blair, topping the poll on primary votes. The ALP polled second, with Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson third. Thompson gained Nationals preferences, then defeated Hanson on Labor preferences.
Thompson won by more comfortable margins in 2001 (58.5%) and 2004 (61.2%). The redistribution cut Thompson’s margin by 5.5% before the 2007 election. A 10% swing saw the ALP’s Shayne Neumann won the seat on a second attempt.
- Scott Buchholz (Liberal National)
- Anna Bridle (Greens)
- Andrew Ramsay (Labor)
- Ken Degen (Independent)
- Jeremy Fredericks (Family First)
While this seat’s margin suggests it could be won by the ALP, the local factors suggest the ALP has little chance of winning in 2010. The ALP won Blair and Forde in 2007 with swings of 14% and 10%, making it unlikely that they can gain further swings in Wright.
Wright also covers traditionally rural conservative areas. While the LNP candidate is a former National, the seat would have gone to the Liberals over the Nationals before the merger and there is an understanding that a successful candidate will sit with the Liberals in Canberra.
The Liberal National Party originally preselected Hajnal Ban, a Logan City councillor and the Nationals’ candidate for Forde at the 2007 election. Ban is prominent for admitting to have undertaken surgery to extend the length of her legs. Ban won preselection over former Member for Blair Cameron Thompson. Ban was later disendorsed, and the LNP has snow preselected Barnaby Joyce staffer Scott Buchholz.
The ALP had original preselected Sharon Murakami, but the result wasoverturned and she was replaced by CFMEU official Andrew Ramsay.
2007 result – Blair
2007 two-candidate-preferred result – Blair
2007 result – Forde
2007 two-candidate-preferred result – Forde
I have divided Wright’s booths into the four local government areas contained in the seat. I have also listed the ‘other votes’ result for both Blair and Forde. These categories include votes cast by those not included in the new Wright, but are included as extra information about the seats that previously covered Wright.
The ALP won a majority in Logan, which is the second-most populous part of the seat. The Liberals won majorities in all other areas.
|Voter group||GRN %||LNP 2CP %||Total votes||% of ordinary votes|
|Other votes (Forde)||5.70||48.58||13,837|
|Other votes (Blair)||4.64||47.27||12,197|