Senate – Victoria – Australia 2022

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2022Term due to expire 2025
Kim Carr (Labor) Raff Ciccone (Labor)
Sarah Henderson (Liberal)1 Jane Hume (Liberal)
Kimberley Kitching (Labor) James Paterson (Liberal)
Bridget McKenzie (Nationals) Janet Rice (Greens)
Scott Ryan (Liberal) David Van (Liberal)
Lidia Thorpe (Greens)2 Jess Walsh (Labor)

1Sarah Henderson replaced Mitch Fifield on 11 September 2019 following Fifield’s resignation.
2Lidia Thorpe replaced Richard Di Natale on 4 September 2020 following Di Natale’s resignation.

History

The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.

The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.

The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.

The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.

In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.

The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.

The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.

In 2013, both Labor and Liberal lost their third seat, to the Greens and Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.

The 2016 double dissolution produced two changes. Labor and Greens maintained four and two seats respectively. The Coalition regained a fifth seat, while Derryn Hinch won a seat as an independent. Ricky Muir and John Madigan both lost their seats.

Labor and the Greens maintained their numbers in 2019, while the Liberal Party gained an extra seat at the expense of Derryn Hinch.

2019 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal/Nationals 1,342,36235.9+2.82.5128
Labor 1,163,85331.1+0.42.1787
Greens 397,13310.6-0.30.7434
One Nation106,7422.9+1.00.1998
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party105,4592.8-3.20.1974
Democratic Labour94,7202.5+2.00.1773
United Australia Party92,6912.5+2.50.1735
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers69,3221.9+0.80.1298
Animal Justice57,2871.5-0.20.1072
Help End Marijuana Prohibition56,1171.5+1.50.1050
Liberal Democrats35,7191.0-0.60.0669
Australian Conservatives24,4430.7+0.70.0458
Christian Democratic Party18,7910.5+0.20.0352
Small Business Party18,5340.5+0.50.0347
Others156,2704.2

Preference flows
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Coalition and two for Labor.

We can then zoom forward to the last ten candidates for the final two seats. These candidates included three incumbent senators and a former senator:

  • Janet Rice (GRN) – 0.8116 quotas
  • David Van (LIB) – 0.5832
  • James Hallam (ON) – 0.2477
  • Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2381
  • Catriona Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2131
  • Gavin Marshall (ALP) – 0.2129
  • Jennifer Bowden (DLP) – 0.2080
  • Ricky Muir (SFF) – 0.1640
  • Ben Schultz (AJP) – 0.1465
  • Frances Hood (HEMP) – 0.1409

The Greens and Animal Justice were the main beneficiaries of HEMP preferences.

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.8391
  • Van (LIB) – 0.5934
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.2564
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2506
  • Marshall (ALP) – 0.2282
  • Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2198
  • Bowden (DLP) – 0.2142
  • Muir (SFF) – 0.1832
  • Schultz (AJP) – 0.1694

The Greens were the main beneficiaries from AJP preferences:

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.9119
  • Van (LIB) – 0.6037
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2676
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.2660
  • Marshall (ALP) – 0.2481
  • Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2245
  • Bowden (DLP) – 0.2182
  • Muir (SFF) – 0.1927

Shooters preferences scattered, but the most votes went to One Nation, who again pulled ahead of Derryn Hinch:

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.9221
  • Van (LIB) – 0.6368
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.3046
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2959
  • Marshall (ALP) – 0.2654
  • Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2475
  • Bowden (DLP) – 0.2265

DLP preferences spread around the remaining candidates, with Labor and the Greens receiving the most preferences:

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.9606
  • Van (LIB) – 0.6681
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.3307
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.3264
  • Marshall (ALP) – 0.3066
  • Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2664

United Australia Party preferences were most helpful to the Liberal Party, and widened the gap between Labor and the other parties.

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.9766
  • Van (LIB) – 0.7553
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.3839
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.3718
  • Marshall (ALP) – 0.3281

Labor preferences pushed the Greens over quota, and also pushed Hinch ahead of One Nation:

  • Rice (GRN) – 1.0319
  • Van (LIB) – 0.8124
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.4580
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.4064

The small Greens surplus mostly favoured Hinch, but left him a long way from winning.

  • Van (LIB) – 0.8184
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.4672
  • Hallam (ON) – 0.4071

One Nation preferences split roughly evenly, leaving Van to win the last seat short of a quota:

  • Van (LIB) – 0.9308
  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.5820

Candidates

  • E – Elissa Smith (Legalise Cannabis)
  • F – Madeleine Wearne (Sustainable Australia)
  • G – Chris Burson (Australian Values)
  • H – Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
  • I – Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
  • J – Antoinette Pitt (Progressives)
  • K – Labor
    1. Linda White
    2. Jana Stewart
    3. Casey Nunn
    4. Megan Bridger-Darling
    5. Josh McFarlane
  • Ungrouped
    • Glenn Floyd (Independent)
    • Allen Ridgeway (Independent)
    • James Bond (Independent)
    • Neal Smith (Independent)
    • Max Dicks (Independent)
    • Bernardine Atkinson (Independent)
    • Paul Ross (Independent)
    • Nat De Francesco (Independent)
    • Joseph Toscano (Independent)
    • Tara Tran (Independent)
    • David Dillon (Independent)
    • Geraldine Gonsalvez (Independent)

Assessment
The most likely outcome would be a repeat of the 2019 election result: three Coalition, two Labor and one Green. Victoria has been a relatively good state for Labor, but they would need to do very well to gain a third seat off the Coalition. It’s conceivable Labor could win a third seat off the Greens, but they are relatively strong in Victoria so they would probably have to suffer a significant swing to lose to Labor.

It’s also possible that the Liberal vote will drop far enough to lose their third seat to a minor party such as One Nation, United Australia or Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.

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41 COMMENTS

  1. If the Liberal party appoint Greg Mirabella to the senate that would be undemocratic as his wife was defeated in Indi in 2013. the Mirabella brand was rejected and so was Sarah Henderson. Democracy is at huge risk from both major parties appointing defeated MP’s or relatives of defeated MP’s to high political office.

    These are just the dark days of democracy and it would be a dark day if Greg Mirabella is appointed. On my side of politics I am disappointed that they appointed the defeated member for Robertson in 2013 to the senate. This again is undemocratic. The seats should remain vacant until the election and then the people choose the replacement. The same thing happened in Arizona where a defeated candidate was appointed to the senate. There needs to be a constitutional change to ban these appointments from being made to save democracy.

    The liberals could lose the 3rd seat if Greg Mirabella is pre-selected and Labor could win 3 seats.

  2. What on earth are you on about Daniel? Most people do not view the Senate as a race between individual candidates (the exception is Tasmania) so I strongly reject your claim that the Libs will drop to 2 seats based on that. There are very few instances that I can think of where personalities in the Senate made the difference.

  3. Senators who have been decisive:-Malcolm Roberts
    Jacqui Lambie
    Derryn Hinch
    General Jim Molan
    Vicki Singh
    Pauline Hanson
    Richard Colbeck
    That’s a tally since 2016.
    Harder to find examples in the majors, but there are Senators who lend their popularity to the whole ticket & eschew identification, so their plan’s working.
    Decisive negatives;- suggestions?

  4. Lambie, Hinch and Hanson are party leaders/one person bands.

    Molan was mainly a preselection issue, his BTL campaign did not win.

  5. Phil, three of those have been in Tasmania (Lambie, Singh, Colbeck) and one didn’t even win (Molan). That really only leaves Hanson and Hinch.

    When I said ‘very few instances’, I was thinking more about people like Syd Negus.

  6. TERRIBLE NEWS
    Vale Kimberly Kitching. Labor’s finest senator dead at 52. That leaves only 2 senators worth a lower house seat

  7. Sad news to hear of the passing of Kimberly Kitching. She was a passionate crusader for human rights. We need more parliamentarians like her who truly speak up for what they believe.

  8. Wreathy – I know you made this comment months ago, but the 2PP vote in Queensland in 2019 was 58-41, and that was enough to deny Labor a second Senator. Right now Pollbludger has the mean aggregate 2PP in Victoria at 57/43, so the Coalition’s not far off being in the same situation. The polls will probably tighten a bit, but give Morrison another few disaster weeks, which he seems to have a lot of, and a 3-2-1 result isn’t inconceivable imo.

    John T – Passionate about human rights isn’t how I would describe her, given the way she used to whinge about how mean the UN is to Israel. Passionate crusader for human rights applying to ‘the right people’ maybe.

  9. FN, Fewer competitors to the right of the Libs than the ALP have to their left in QLD. If the Libs had a 2PP OF 43, their primary vote would still be about 35 so two senators would be easy. Hard to see a 3rd from there though.

  10. Would agree with you redistributed, the most likely result for Victoria would be 2 Coalition, 3 Labor and 1 Green (a 4-2 split in favour of the left). This would be the inverse of Queensland 2019 (4-2 split in favour of the Right).

  11. If Labor get up into the low 40s and the Greens stay where they are, the Greens might struggle to get a seat as the ALP will have no surplus to pass on. The last seat would be a battle between the third Lib and the Greens and the winner would depend on how all the other preferences fall.

  12. @FT, I don’t necessarily disagree – particularly in this political climate. I was rebutting Daniel’s specific claim that picking a particular candidate would cause the decline to two seats.

  13. Current tracking has a 2pp swing to labor in Victoria of about 3.3%, according to Bludgertrack. This isn’t enough to get Labor+Greens a fourth seat in Victoria, despite the tracking suggesting that they should be within the plausible range in terms of 2pp value.

    There would be about 0.23 quotas added to the Left’s numbers, which, even if it all went to Labor, wouldn’t get them past the Greens for the third seat, so I also don’t see a change on that front.

    So I suspect this will remain at status quo – 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN

  14. @ FL good find.

    This will become a recurring problem for both the Labor and Liberal parties as their primary votes decrease more and more, and the spots available become less and less in the Senate.

    Also crazy to think that the 2 major parties with a large membership base have never undergone a formal widespread audit of either their finances or internal practices, open to the public.

  15. In 1955, the Victorian ALP ended up with two of everything, hence the Split. Not sure what happens when you have none of anything. This can surely only happen when the parties get smaller and smaller and consequentially less representative. The NSW Libs are the opposite side of the same coin.

  16. Jana Stewart has been selected to replace Kimberley Kitching for the vacant Senate position, and Linda White will succeed Kim Carr.
    Natalie Hutchins and Fiona MacLeod were supposedly mulling to get Stewart’s spot but didn’t run.
    I suppose Labor need a new candidate for Pascoe Vale then.

    Also this means that the Senate is becoming more and more female-majority.

  17. Labor has 2 excellent candidates at the top of its ticket this time. The next best candidate is the Reason party candidate.

  18. Hold those martini’s Victoria! You get to vote for James Bond this election in the senate! I think that by far is the best candidate name this election. Pity he didn’t get a running partner and a group square… I wonder how many people would vote for him just for fun!

  19. How likely is it that Labor takes the 3rd LibNat seat? it would only take a 2% swing from Libs to Labor for Labor to get in front on Primaries, but I always struggle to conceptualise preference flows and how to translate to quotas and seats in the senate so I may be totally wrong.

  20. Susan Benedyka is running as a sort of ‘Voices’ candidate. She is from North East Victoria so there is a good chance she is a pal of Helen Haines and/ or Cathy McGowan. Are any of the Teal or Voices candidates giving her a HTV recommendation in the Senate.

  21. I am not as flush with connections in Vic, and have no evidence other than the above and some psephological research, but I cannot see how the ALP will gain one, nor the Greens lose one, with current polling trends. On the other hand, it is also clear the Coalition vote will go down with a plethora of alternatives to them, and there is some tight preference harvesting (accepting less than half of voters follow the minor parties’ HTV cards, even if they get one) amongst the minor conservative parties.
    I believe we will see:
    ALP 2, LNP 2, Green 1, and a lottery for the last seat, but I will plump on the Human Headline (Derryn Hinch).

  22. @Andy whilst i think the Liberal Democrats will improve their vote people might separate state and federal. Also the LibDems haven’t done much advertising. The UAP will most likely pick up most of the anti-lockdown sentiment except for those more on the left or Greens voters, they might vote LibDems.

  23. How on earth is Greg Mirabella ahead here? Can someone explain how the coalition can get 3 senators only on 2.28 quotas???

    They had a 3% swing against them which is enough to guarantee them being denied the 3rd seat. Absolute disgrace.

    Why has Labor failed to gain seats in the senate other than the lone gain in Western Australia? How is the coalition holding onto to their senate seats despite their big primary drop this election? Either Antony’s system is wrong or something extraordinary unusual is happening.

  24. Nothing unusual is happening. Who else should win the sixth seat in Victoria? After the first five candidates are elected, the Liberals have 0.28 quotas, the UAP have 0.28 quotas, and no one else has more than that! Combine the Liberal, UAP, ON, and LDP votes together and you have 0.92 quotas. Completely unsurprising that the Liberals will win the sixth seat.

  25. Yeah but there was a SWING against them. Why would the progressive/conservative sided win 3 seats each when the progressive vote clearly outnumbers the conservative one? The conservatives did worse than in WA yet they get only 2 seats there so this makes absolutely no sense to me still.

    Victoria was dubbed by John Howard as the “Massachusetts” of Australia yet The progressive side wins more senators in the west this election? I thought Labor won a bigger share of the vote in Victoria than in WA. I think it was around 58-42TPP last time I checked.

    Mirrabella even said himself it was “unlikely” that he would win. And the UAP was ahead until today so what happened? Where did the shifts occur?

    In don’t think you can call it “unsurprising”

  26. @Daniel Antony Green has the TPP in Vic at 53.8% to Labor with a 0.7% swing to Labor, barely any net swing. The reason why so many seats changed hands in VIC, is that the swings to Labor are entirely concentrated in Eastern and Inner Southern Melbourne where there are plenty of Liberal held seats with relatively smaller margins compared to the massive margins for Labor in the West and North, allowing Labor (and the Teals) to pick up lots of seats there while everywhere else either didn’t swing or swung to the Libs, sometimes quite strongly like in Calwell. Since the areas which swung to the Libs already had massive Labor margins, no seat actually fell to the Libs. Basically Labor got swings to them in the right places while the Libs got them in the wrong places. In regards your comments on the Senate, maybe they started counting the postals for the Senate which would traditionally favour the Libs.

  27. There was a swing to right-wing minor parties of similar magnitude to the swing against the Coalition.

  28. Daniel, the 6-member system makes it hard to produce a result other than 3-3. So it’s possible for the left to significantly outpoll the right and still split the seats 3-3.

    It’s not true that the conservatives did worse in Victoria – the Libs polled 31.6% in WA and 32.6% in Victoria.

    But also the combined Labor/Greens vote is 3.16 quotas in Victoria and 3.44 in WA – big difference.

  29. Coalition + UAP + Lib Dems + Hanson + Shooters already clears 3 quotas.

    Why would the Right NOT get 3 Senators in this scenario?

  30. Mark
    The issue is that very few votes may flow to the Coaltion from UAP, LDP, ON or Shooters if they did not include the Libs in their 6 on the HTV card. Methinks that LDP voters are more likely to include the Coalition in their 6.

  31. BTL segment is being counted simultaneously. It is initially placed in ‘unallocated’ rank, which, will disappear once all votes have been slotted into correct rank. BTL, consisting of roughly 6 or 7 percent of the count is not treated separately from ATL, unless they are unclear. Last time this heavily favored the Greens over Labour over Coalition relative to ATL. Doubtless, still do.
    Candidates with BTL votes currently Max Dicks 1 769,
    Glen Floyd 1452,
    Lidia Thorpe 546,
    Labour #1;- 499

  32. UAP’s Ralph Babet has won the final senate seat, making Clive Palmer’s 100 million look a little less wasteful.

  33. Yes, UAP won the sixth Victorian seat with 4% of the vote and 0.28 times the quota. They’ll probably be celebrating as if it’s a “win for the people”.

    Let’s see if Ralph Babet will stay the entire term in the UAP. Most UAP MPs quit mid-term but the difference here is that his boss won’t be in parliament.

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