|Term due to expire 2022||Term due to expire 2025|
|Kim Carr (Labor)||Raff Ciccone (Labor)|
|Sarah Henderson (Liberal)1||Jane Hume (Liberal)|
|Kimberley Kitching (Labor)||James Paterson (Liberal)|
|Bridget McKenzie (Nationals)||Janet Rice (Greens)|
|Scott Ryan (Liberal)||David Van (Liberal)|
|Lidia Thorpe (Greens)2||Jess Walsh (Labor)|
1Sarah Henderson replaced Mitch Fifield on 11 September 2019 following Fifield’s resignation.
2Lidia Thorpe replaced Richard Di Natale on 4 September 2020 following Di Natale’s resignation.
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.
The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.
The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.
The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.
In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.
The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.
The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.
In 2013, both Labor and Liberal lost their third seat, to the Greens and Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.
The 2016 double dissolution produced two changes. Labor and Greens maintained four and two seats respectively. The Coalition regained a fifth seat, while Derryn Hinch won a seat as an independent. Ricky Muir and John Madigan both lost their seats.
Labor and the Greens maintained their numbers in 2019, while the Liberal Party gained an extra seat at the expense of Derryn Hinch.
|Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party||105,459||2.8||-3.2||0.1974|
|United Australia Party||92,691||2.5||+2.5||0.1735|
|Shooters, Fishers and Farmers||69,322||1.9||+0.8||0.1298|
|Help End Marijuana Prohibition||56,117||1.5||+1.5||0.1050|
|Christian Democratic Party||18,791||0.5||+0.2||0.0352|
|Small Business Party||18,534||0.5||+0.5||0.0347|
Four seats were won on primary votes: two for the Coalition and two for Labor.
We can then zoom forward to the last ten candidates for the final two seats. These candidates included three incumbent senators and a former senator:
- Janet Rice (GRN) – 0.8116 quotas
- David Van (LIB) – 0.5832
- James Hallam (ON) – 0.2477
- Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2381
- Catriona Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2131
- Gavin Marshall (ALP) – 0.2129
- Jennifer Bowden (DLP) – 0.2080
- Ricky Muir (SFF) – 0.1640
- Ben Schultz (AJP) – 0.1465
- Frances Hood (HEMP) – 0.1409
The Greens and Animal Justice were the main beneficiaries of HEMP preferences.
- Rice (GRN) – 0.8391
- Van (LIB) – 0.5934
- Hallam (ON) – 0.2564
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2506
- Marshall (ALP) – 0.2282
- Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2198
- Bowden (DLP) – 0.2142
- Muir (SFF) – 0.1832
- Schultz (AJP) – 0.1694
The Greens were the main beneficiaries from AJP preferences:
- Rice (GRN) – 0.9119
- Van (LIB) – 0.6037
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2676
- Hallam (ON) – 0.2660
- Marshall (ALP) – 0.2481
- Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2245
- Bowden (DLP) – 0.2182
- Muir (SFF) – 0.1927
Shooters preferences scattered, but the most votes went to One Nation, who again pulled ahead of Derryn Hinch:
- Rice (GRN) – 0.9221
- Van (LIB) – 0.6368
- Hallam (ON) – 0.3046
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.2959
- Marshall (ALP) – 0.2654
- Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2475
- Bowden (DLP) – 0.2265
DLP preferences spread around the remaining candidates, with Labor and the Greens receiving the most preferences:
- Rice (GRN) – 0.9606
- Van (LIB) – 0.6681
- Hallam (ON) – 0.3307
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.3264
- Marshall (ALP) – 0.3066
- Thoolen (UAP) – 0.2664
United Australia Party preferences were most helpful to the Liberal Party, and widened the gap between Labor and the other parties.
- Rice (GRN) – 0.9766
- Van (LIB) – 0.7553
- Hallam (ON) – 0.3839
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.3718
- Marshall (ALP) – 0.3281
Labor preferences pushed the Greens over quota, and also pushed Hinch ahead of One Nation:
- Rice (GRN) – 1.0319
- Van (LIB) – 0.8124
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.4580
- Hallam (ON) – 0.4064
The small Greens surplus mostly favoured Hinch, but left him a long way from winning.
- Van (LIB) – 0.8184
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.4672
- Hallam (ON) – 0.4071
One Nation preferences split roughly evenly, leaving Van to win the last seat short of a quota:
- Van (LIB) – 0.9308
- Hinch (DHJ) – 0.5820
- A – Yolanda Vega (Reason)
- B – Damien Richardson (Independent)
- C – Leonie Green (Democrats)
- D – Liberal/Nationals
- E – Elissa Smith (Legalise Cannabis)
- F – Madeleine Wearne (Sustainable Australia)
- G – Chris Burson (Australian Values)
- H – Derryn Hinch (Derryn Hinch’s Justice)
- I – Bronwyn Currie (Animal Justice)
- J – Antoinette Pitt (Progressives)
- K – Labor
- L – Ralph Babet (United Australia)
- M – Felix Dance (Socialist Alliance)
- N – Vern Hughes (Federation)
- O – Ethan Constantinou (Shooters, Fishers and Farmers)
- P – Warren Pickering (One Nation)
- Q – Robbie Barwick (Citizens Party)
- R – Morgan Jonas (Independent)
- S – Kammy Cordner Hunt (Fusion)
- T – Susan Benedyka (Independent)
- U – Lidia Thorpe (Greens)
- V – Darryl O’Bryan (Great Australian Party)
- W – David Limbrick (Liberal Democrats)
- X – Nick Clonaridis (Informed Medical Options)
- Y – Peter Byrne (Independent)
- Z – Aran Mylvaganam (Victorian Socialists)
- Glenn Floyd (Independent)
- Allen Ridgeway (Independent)
- James Bond (Independent)
- Neal Smith (Independent)
- Max Dicks (Independent)
- Bernardine Atkinson (Independent)
- Paul Ross (Independent)
- Nat De Francesco (Independent)
- Joseph Toscano (Independent)
- Tara Tran (Independent)
- David Dillon (Independent)
- Geraldine Gonsalvez (Independent)
The most likely outcome would be a repeat of the 2019 election result: three Coalition, two Labor and one Green. Victoria has been a relatively good state for Labor, but they would need to do very well to gain a third seat off the Coalition. It’s conceivable Labor could win a third seat off the Greens, but they are relatively strong in Victoria so they would probably have to suffer a significant swing to lose to Labor.
It’s also possible that the Liberal vote will drop far enough to lose their third seat to a minor party such as One Nation, United Australia or Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party.