Goldstein – Australia 2022

LIB 7.8%

Incumbent MP
Tim Wilson, since 2016.

Geography
Inner southern suburbs of Melbourne. Goldstein covers the entirety of Bayside council area and parts of Glen Eira. Key suburbs include Sandringham, Brighton, Hampton,  Beaumaris, Ormond and Bentleigh.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Goldstein was first created in 1984, but is considered a successor to the previous Division of Balaclava, which existed from the first federal election in 1901 until its abolition in 1984. The two seats have a perfect record of having never been won by the Labor Party, and they have been held continously by the Liberal Party and its predecessors since the two non-Labor parties merged in 1909.

Balaclava was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate George Turner. Turner had been Premier of Victoria from 1894 to 1899 and again from 1900 until early in 1901, and was the state MP for St Kilda. Turner was Treasurer in Edmund Barton’s first federal government. He won re-election as a Protectionist in 1903 but he accepted the role of Treasurer in George Reid’s Free Trade government in 1904, which effectively saw him switch parties. Turner retired in 1906.

Balaclava was won in 1906 by Independent Protectionist candidate Agar Wynne. Wynne was a former minister in Victorian colonial governments. He joined the newly created Commonwealth Liberal Party in 1909 and served in Joseph Cook’s government from 1913 to 1914. Wynne did not run for re-election in 1914, although he returned to Victorian state politics from 1917 to 1920 and briefly served as a state minister.

Balaclava was won in 1914 by Liberal candidate William Watt. Watt had been Premier of Victoria from 1912 to 1914, and became a federal minister in 1917 as part of the new Nationalist government led by former Labor prime minister Billy Hughes. Watt was appointed Treasurer in 1918 and served as Acting Prime Minister when Hughes traveled to the Versailles peace conference in 1919.

Watt, however, fell out with Hughes upon his return. He was appointed as a representative of the Australian government at a conference on reparations, but Hughes’ constant meddling led him to resign as Treasurer and return to Australia as a backbencher.

Watt was one of a small group of rebel Liberals who ran as the Liberal Union party in 1922, and won re-election. They rejoined the Nationalists after Hughes was replaced by Stanley Bruce, and Watt became Speaker, serving in the role until 1926. He retired from Balaclava in 1929.

Watt’s retirement triggered a by-election, which was won by Nationalist candidate Thomas White. White served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1933 to 1938, and served as a minister from the election of the Menzies government in 1949 until his resignation in 1951.

Balaclava was won at the 1951 by-election by Liberal candidate Percy Joske. He held the seat until his resignation in 1960, when he was appointed as a judge on the Commonwealth Industrial Court. The 1960 by-election was won by Ray Whittorn, also from the Liberal Party. He held the seat until his retirement at the 1974 election.

Balaclava was won in 1974 by Ian Macphee, who served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1976 to 1983. In 1984, the seat of Balaclava was abolished and replaced by the seat of Goldstein, and Macphee won the new seat.

Macphee was a Liberal moderate, and took Andrew Peacock’s side in his conflict with John Howard throughout the 1980s. Macphee served as a shadow minister under Peacock, but was sacked in 1987 by Howard. He was defeated for preselection before the 1990 election by right-wing candidate David Kemp.

Kemp won Goldstein in 1990, and immediately went onto the opposition frontbench. Kemp joined the ministry upon the election of the Howard government in 1996, and served as a minister until three months before his retirement in 2004.

Goldstein was won in 2004 by the Liberal Party’s Andrew Robb, who had been the party’s Federal Director at the 1996 election. Robb was re-elected four times before retiring in 2016.

Robb was succeeded in 2016 by Tim Wilson, a former Human Rights Commissioner. Wilson was re-elected in 2019.

Candidates

Assessment
Goldstein is traditionally a safe Liberal seat, but polling suggests a collapse in support for Wilson, with Zoe Daniel a serious threat to win.

2019 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Wilson Liberal 52,320 52.7 -3.7
Daniel Pollock Labor 28,118 28.3 +6.4
Sue Pennicuik Greens 13,951 14.0 -1.9
Wayne Connolly United Australia Party 1,945 2.0 +2.0
Brandon James Hoult Sustainable Australia 1,653 1.7 +1.7
John Tiger Casley Independent 1,349 1.4 +1.4
Informal 2,244 2.2 -0.3

2019 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Tim Wilson Liberal 57,408 57.8 -4.9
Daniel Pollock Labor 41,928 42.2 +4.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Polling places in Bayside City have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Brighton, Sandringham and Beaumaris. Booths in Glen Eira council area have been grouped together.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.5% in Glen Eira to 62.1% in Brighton.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.3% in Brighton to 17.7% in Sandringham.

Voter group GRN prim % LIB 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Glen Eira 15.2 50.5 17,905 18.0
Brighton 13.3 62.1 12,467 12.6
Sandringham 17.7 51.2 11,627 11.7
Beaumaris 13.4 60.7 8,886 8.9
Pre-poll 13.1 60.4 31,271 31.5
Other votes 13.0 60.5 17,180 17.3

Election results in Goldstein at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

Become a Patron!

133 COMMENTS

  1. I expect Brighton and Sandringham to flip to Labor next year as especially in Newbury’s case, Is an appalling conservative Dutton supporting state MP.

    History on the other hand will favour Wilson and being a moderate small-l liberal will really help him hold onto the key moderates to stop this seat from becoming a marginal one. If Wilson somehow goes down then I expect the Liberals will only have 1 seat left in Melbourne (Menzies) No way they hold Aston,Kooyong and Higgins if they cannot hold this.

    Liberal hold.

  3. Marko check out the 2010 result in Aston, Hope this helps. Similar boundaries and it was more marginal than Goldstein. The margin is inflated with Tudge’s personal vote.

  4. 2010 was 11 years ago, look at the last state election (Ferntree Gully and Rowville are safer than Brighton and Sandringham)

  5. For what it’s worth, I’ve heard there’s been an exodus of inner-city Melburnians to the outer eastern suburbs (i.e. Aston, Casey, Deakin) in recent times.

  7. It’s been reported a voices for Goldstein grassroots movement has been formed earlier this year led by environmental philanthropist David Rothfield. The hopes is running an independent candidate in a similar campaign as Cathy McGowan and Zali Stegall. Like Sophie Mirabella, Tim Wilson is a very polarising Liberal. That doesn’t been though he is completely vulnerable though, the reasons Mirabella and David Feeney became vulnerable by independent/minor party is they were not very well liked in their electorates.

    Labor had a primary vote of 28% in this seat from the last election. Its not as prominent as Bennelong but its not as non existent as Warringah either. I would love to see Wilson gone but not sure the stars will completely align for an independent here.

  8. PN
    “Tim Wilson is a very polarising Liberal.”
    How ? Isn’t he “emblematic” of the “modern” liberal ? He is so smooth, it’s like oily

  9. @Winediamond

    For example Tim Wilson used a tax funded Parliamentary inquiry into Labor’s Franking Credits policy. It was designed for partisan point scoring and is not what inquiry’s are supposed to be used for. Parliamentary inquiries usually investigate government policies and their impacts, not those of the Opposition. It was a complete breach of standards and conventions.

  10. PN
    Ah yes. That old thing..! Technically you may well be right. I seem to recall past discussions with you more broadly on this subject. Leaving aside the issue itself, the content etc. Perhaps i’d suggest that parliamentary inquiries have been mounted for far more frivolous reasons than turning 40 years of public, & economic policy direction on it’s head. Not to mention that it was introduced with bipartisan support, in the first place.
    Having said that Yes there was plenty of “point scoring”. Because the WAS plenty to be had ! It was a profoundly stupid policy. In fact i can’t think of a better reason for an inquiry than highlighting stupid policy ! Whether that of the government or the opposition is actually irrelevant (at least to me )
    As for “standards and conventions.” Seriously PN !!??
    i’m almost insulted !. After all this time we have known each other ? You talk to ME about “standards and conventions?” I’ll quote John Golightly
    “Rules are made for the interpretation of wise men, & the obedience of fools”

    I still don’t see how merely chairing the inquiry positions Wilson in a particular way ? Someone had to…!
    cheers WD
    ps Don’t you think Labor have used parliamentary inquires for unclean if not nefarious purposes ? I wonder if anyone has a story ?

  11. Tim Wilson is what Barnaby Joyce would be like if he lived in Melbourne and traded his ten gallon hat for Finasteride.

  12. From what I gather from the few people I know who live in Goldstein, Tim Wilson is quite popular. There may be some disaffected Libs in the “Voices of ..” movement but it just seems to be a vehicle for a whole lot of champagne socialists who live in nice suburbs and are tired of voting for the losing side. The Libs should put the blowtorch on them before the election and then turn the blowtorch on the Nats afterwards for putting them in that position. Seriously, if voters want change they should vote for a party who can govern rather than one that may be just left ss impotent bystanders.

  13. Redistributed
    How exactly could the libs apply a “blowtorch”? and why would they?. It is difficult to imagine the” voices people” as ANY kind Liberal party person. Surely these people have other priorities than “conservative values”? AND have had long term ? Surely winning & losing is not the point. It the purity, & righteousness of the cause(s) !. Contemptible Grandstanders & hypocrites, IMV, bet i know more (of them)than anyone else does.

    FL
    very, very clever. One of your best ever comments . Had to google finnistride..! However Wilson is a 3 fixation & Vanity is their passion, whereas Barnaby is an 8 fixation & revenge is their passion. So i don’t see Barnaby ever looking after himself in a metrosexual way. He just isn’t that kind of bloke

  14. Former ABC journalist Zoe Daniel is set to run for federal parliament as a pro-climate independent in the Melbourne electorate of Goldstein backed by ‘voices for Goldstein’.

  15. I expect Zoe to come 2nd place. The question is can they push Wilson’s primary vote under 50%

    If he wins between 47-50% he is safe
    He is in danger if he gets between 45-47% but still should scrape across
    Anything below a Liberal primary of 45% means he will go down to a Zali Steggal city type independent.

    If I were them I would be showing great concern about this and put more resources into holding this then trying to hold seats like Swan,Pearce and Hasluck

  16. Daniel
    Have you even looked at the AEC results?
    This posturing lightweight hypocritical reprobate won’t even get past the Greens. Zoe works for the New Daily. Funded by Industry Super Funds. IF an SSMF trustee siphoned (stole !?) funds from their OWN Fund they could be fined 48% of the value of his fund, & prosecuted.
    But Industry funds can just appropriate members funds to start their own newspaper !!!!. Does that sound to you like compliance with “the sole purpose test”? (of maximising the retirement benefits the members) ?
    Of course not. These Industry Funds members, are often the lowest paid workers in the country. IS Someone who turns a blind eye to this kind of “exploitation or opportunism,” at best, (I’m trying to be polite) really an appropriate Representative ?

    Personally i find the New Daily totally disgusting, & condemn anyone associated with, let alone employed by it.
    Oh & just to close the circle the New Daily also pays the ABC to supply, or regurgitate content.More members funds expended, or mis directed depending on your POV.

    Consequently i disagree with you about sandbagging Goldstein. If Wilson can’t hold this seat & recover the 3.66% he lost in 2019, then he should be dis – endorsed for being completely useless.

  17. Nah, despite being a Greens member of all things winediamond Zoe Daniel will definitely make the top two here. Heck, in a slightly smaller microcosm a 19 year-old who was still on his L-plates and had a campaign budget of $1,750 nearly won Brighton. Be memorable, and not a Liberal patsy, and you seem to do pretty damn well.

  19. One of the odd things about Goldstein in 2019 was the disparity in swings between booths – and significantly adjacent booths where there would be no readily explainable issue or socio economic difference.
    I agree with Daniel above that below 45% is the danger zone for Tim Wilson. Looking at a few seats where there was a “Voices of..” type candidate in 2019, it is interesting to note that the Greens preference flow was significantly or still very much to the ALP. The Voices of candidate will need to come a good second and the Lib vote to be below 45% for Tim Wilson to be in trouble. Another factor in Goldstein is that there are pockets of lower socio economic and public housing and these will help the ALP rather than a third candidate. With Zoe Daniel as a high profile candidate, the Libs will be sandbagging.

  20. It think Zoe Daniel is a live chance.

    Corruption/ICAC and Climate Change may indeed find 1 in 5 Liberals in seats like Goldstein scrambling to “send a message.” After that all she would need is some bleed from Greens and Labor and then preferences from the rest.

  21. redistributed /Bennee
    Well Gentlemen, i guess we’ve made our positions clear !. It will be an interesting election night.

    I’M genuinely curious , actually intrigued, as to how 20% of the 52000 +(= 11000 in 2022) will change their vote “Corruption/ICAC and Climate Change may indeed find 1 in 5 Liberals in seats like Goldstein scrambling to “send a message.” . What will propel them after the 2019 so called “CLIMATE CHANGE ELECTION” !? Why wasn’t “the message” SENT then!? If it was so important !?

    I don’t get the importance of “Corruption/ICAC” ? what am i missing ?

    “Zoe Daniel as a high profile candidate” Maybe she is. However i’ve already pointed out that she is also a 10th rate human being, with a non existent genuine moral compass.
    Apparently acquiescing, condoning, ignoring or just taking the retirement funds of Industry funds members is quite OK with everyone. Good to know ! If that is the kind of “high profile” candidate you are all impressed with – marvellous , just sensational ! And all you blokes reckon you stand for social justice ?

  22. WD
    Until we have a reasonably fixed and consistent approach to climate change in this country, then every election will be a ‘climate change election’. In jurisdictions where there has been a policy consensus such as NSW, SA or the UK then it will be an issue but not a defining issue. The days when only coal could provide base load reliable power have gone – big batteries have seen to that – but the nation is being held to ransom by a small group of Queensland National MPs who have no policy position beyond propping up the coal industry. With the waffling and flip flops from Scott Morrison this week, the moderate Libs must have sore heads from banging them against the walls of their offices.
    As for you WD, we do know your sympathies lie with the Liberal Democrats with their ‘let it rip’ libertarian philosophy – as they have only an ‘amoral compass’ – may explain your ‘spray’ against Zoe Daniel.

  23. Labor and the Liberals basically agree on climate change, in that it’s a PR problem and not much else. On a policy level there’s not much to separate them, and given that both support massive expansion of fossil fuel exploration, take millions in fossil fuel donations, and give millions more back to those companies in taxpayer subsidies, I don’t expect Labor will present any meaningful differences before the election’s over. But Labor recognised years ago that the issue is important to the electorate, even if Labor no serious intentions of doing anything about it, and Rudd made the effort to pander to that before Howard, who completely misjudged the politics. The perception’s stuck, even if it’s policy kayfabe.

    I don’t know if 2022 is going to be ‘a climate election’ any more than every other year, but the difference is that the Liberals don’t have much else to misdirect with, and Wilson already had a pretty heavy swing against him last time anyway. As for ICAC and corruption generally, if Wilson wants to argue that it’s not important because Zoe Daniel writes for a piddling little online newspaper, then please please please go ahead. It’ll be very entertaining.

  24. redistributed
    I’ve written plenty about the CC issues. Until realism & truth is applied to the whole issue & the the true costs, & consequences of all actions past, present & future are fully disclosed there will be NO resolution. No amount of propagandising, fear mongering, or catastrophism will change this, by you or anyone else. Incidentally i completely disagree with everything you wrote.

    As for your sledge against the LIB DEMS attempting to portray them as “purist” libertarians, is as puerile, & pathetically binary, as to portray the ALP as “purist” Trotskyists !.
    “‘amoral compass’ Really ? Only the left have humanity, compassion, care, & values (like justice) Seriously mate.
    “explain your ‘spray’ against Zoe Daniel.” Simple : i despise hypocrisy & moral cowards.
    Hope that clears a few thing up for you mate.
    wd

  25. Big turnout for Zoe Daniel’s launch party today, between 100-200 at least, judging by photos and footage, and her website claims they have more than 1000 volunteers signed up. An impressive organisation and outpouring of support for a very thin policy suite- she’s only promising to *halve* emissions by 2030, which if replicated worldwide would be utterly, woeful inadequate to keep below 1.5C cooling. Regardless, embarrassed tree Tories are very motivated this election.

  26. Furtive Lawngnome
    Was really impressed with your November 26, 2021 at 10:37 pm post. A very clearly stated position & view. ” Kayfabe ” had me googling as usual with your posts !.

    There were 14000 Greens voters in Goldstein in 2019 & 26000 ALP voters . How sure are you, that the vaunted “1000 volunteers signed up, & embarrassed tree Tories are very motivated this election”.Are not just DEFECTORS !? Just electoral t-shirt swappers, & switchers, as it were !!!?

    Alegra Spender has “her “people decked out in Teal (coloured) T-shirts isn’t that so cool !? Or does it signify that they are just Green “dilettantes”?. No real cred at all ?

  27. It’s definitely possible that some of them are volunteering for multiple candidates. But generally when you’re at the point that you literally bought the t-shirt (usually a membership perk, but whatever) you’re generally pretty committed to the cause, and wasting your time shilling one candidate is time not spent volunteering for the one you presumably like. From the perspective of the Greens in particular, Zoe comes up short on the flagship issue of the party, and fails miserably on everything else other than ICAC, so why waste our weekends propping her up? Maybe Labor supporters aren’t so scrupulous, I don’t know.

    tbh I think teal is the perfect choice for the Voices project. I laughed when I saw the tshirts.

  29. @wine diamond

    I don’t think it is entirely fair to be criticising the new daily for being funded by industry super when Rupert Murdoch himself gets almost a billion in tax rebates on Newscorp from the government and gets to prop up Foxtel with 40 million from the government.

    While I respect your opinion on the new daily – i don’t believe anyone has much to stand on anywhere in the media business.

    Furthermore I am slightly bewildered that the classic liberal attack line gets to be repeated on this hollowed ground. Honestly the only people that have any right saying the voices movement is a front for a major party are labour, given the fact that the most high profile supporters of this all have long standing connections to the liberal party, with a former liberal prime minister and a former opposition leader being vocal supporters of the movement. even the much reviled Simon Holms a court fundraised for josh frydenburg, even stealing the name of the group – Kooyong 200 – for his climate 200.

    The fundamental truth is when it comes to issues like climate change the liberal party has pretty much taken their small-l base for granted to chase other votes. You will not see people in the voices movement removing negative gearing, replacing franking credits or pushing for public housing because these are not concerns for them. They want action on climate change and social issues and voices candidates will give them that.

    I will definitively state that this may not be enough to replace the liberal party brand in those areas but to call this a front for labor and the greens is simply bewildering.

  30. The AFR reported on 20/1 that internal polling shows Zoe to be on 40%, Tim Wilson on 26% for primary votes.

    it also reported independents were also coming in second (and thus are in striking distance) in North Sydney and Wentworth.

  31. The voices of candidates are those who don’t want liberals are wealthy themselves but are conservative on economic issues round the redistribution of wealth and income They are not supported by the alp… although alp voters don’t want the liberals either and would support them as the lesser evil.. thus is shown by the vote in wentworth post Turnbull. The lib /alp vote is 60 /40 in favour of the liberals in a normal CONTEST.however when she won or just lost she shifted 9 to 10% of the libs vote to herself. So of her 50% of the vote if she wins 40 % is an anti liberal vote.

  32. Frankly the AFR poll needs to be taken with a grain of salt. From 40% for Zoe Daniel and 26% for Tim Wilson, that leaves 34%. In 2019, the combined ALP and Greens vote was 42%. So say the the ALP and Greens are on 30% then they have not lost many votes to the ‘Voices of’ candidate. However, in Warringah, Wentworth, Indi and Flinders, the ‘Voices of’ candidate has drawn a lot of their votes from the Greens and ALP. The Greens have halved their votes and ended up in single figures and the ALP have ended in or close to single figures (except Flinders which is more diverse demographically). Wilson on 40% and Daniel on 26% could be almost plausible but the remaining 34% – where is that going?? And are undecided sitting in the 100%?

  33. sextus pompey
    I apologise for missing your post to me.
    I have no idea what you are talking about re “Rupert Murdoch himself gets almost a billion in tax rebates on Newscorp from the government ” ? Are you talking about franking credits ?

    WRT “and gets to prop up Foxtel with 40 million from the government.” I’ve received this absurd misrepresentation from one of my girl lefty mates. Sounds like Foxtel got a govt grant ? WRONG!!. In fact it was a broadcasting contract for dozens of minor womens sports etc. The tender was obviously far less than the ABC’s cost estimate, & previous expenditure. Otherwise it would not have happened. People without business experience struggle to comprehend that business can be done WITHOUT a profit motive, or why. If this was such great contract why did Foxtel refuse to renew it ? IIRC the price was renegotiated for $60 Million ? Some venal accusation of corruption is just stupid. Does Paul Fletcher strike you as a bloke that enjoys putting his balls on the chopping block ? (presuming he has some to begin with !!!!!?)

    Former liberals ? Embittered vengeful ego maniacs enraged that the party didn’t venerate, & worship their greatness, & brilliance. Pleeeeeece !!!. Get real.

    “but to call this a front for labor and the greens is simply bewildering.”” I DIDN’T. Don’t misrepresent me. i agree that Voices are no “Front” they only have one purpose, & genuine policy-: to destroy the government. Everything else is simply a means to an end, & fundamentally disingenuous .
    I COMPLETELY dis agree with all the rest. I’ll only explain why only under sufferance, if necessary.

    If i steal my own money from my own super fund i would be fined $1 million. However the Industry Super Funds can steal their members money & use it for whatever, like THE NEWS DAILY, & THEY DO !.
    HOW DOES THT COMPARE TO ANYTHING ELSE !!??. This is theft pure & simple. AND FROM some of the LOWEST PAID WORKERS IN THE COUNTRY.
    I’ll look forward to your reply
    cheers wd

  34. Tim Wilson’s latest desperate attack, basically hall monitor grade whinging about Daniels’ election placards, were found to be within council spec and no charges will be laid against her supporters.

    I’m sure he’s cooking up another idiotic little ploy to put her on the back foot but it won’t change anything. He has nothing to defend himself with against her campaign. He’s gone.

  35. Re…. Goldstein.. On vic state figures would vote narrowly liberal But this vote would be to the left of the 2019 federal election vote. The Basyside suburbs would be strongly pro liberal. But I think there is an ongoing non liberal vote trend. I understand that that there is a teal.. Voices of…candidate. Here. Maybe Wilson is worried

  36. Interesting if voices of candidates take 10 to 15% for the liberal… Then they have good prospects in the seats listed in this thread.. Bit like greens against labor?

  38. Tim Wilson has a 7.5% primary vote buffer before he hits the 45% danger zone. A lot of Daniels vote will come from Labor and the Greens – interesting in particular to see if Labor run dead.

  39. Furtive Lawngnome
    Wilson was on “Kenny” last night, & was very confident that VOICES had left the council feeling deceived over the legalities of whether material could be displayed. Guess we’ll see.

    Redistributed
    i posted this on 19/11 :

    “I’M genuinely curious , actually intrigued, as to how 20% of the 52000 +(= 11000 in 2022) will change their vote “Corruption/ICAC and Climate Change may indeed find 1 in 5 Liberals in seats like Goldstein scrambling to “send a message.” . What will propel them after the 2019 so called “CLIMATE CHANGE ELECTION” !? Why wasn’t “the message” SENT then!? If it was so important !?

    So what has changed ? Well i’m impressed with the noise that Voices have created.
    However the noise from the Ukraine is going to be a lot louder. Not because it’s going to be WW III, but because of the economic consequences – fears of a world wide recession. To me a prosperous, wealthy educated electorate like Goldstein is going to be a kind of fulcrum for this issue to be influential .
    Consequently i now see the prospect of a larger than 2-3% swing against Wilson as very remote.
    Keen to hear the views of others
    cheers wd

  40. The council’s justification is just wrong. The election for the house of representatives, from a legal perspective, doesn’t need to be held until September. The half senate election needs to be held in May. While this means practically the HOR election will be held at the same time as the senate it is not legally correct to say that the HOR will occur in May.

    The question then becomes why isn’t the local Council (Bayside) applying the law? It is very concerning to think that they might be favouring one candidate by not insisting that conflutes are taken down until an election is called. Writ of mandamus* perhaps? The council should follow the law!

    *Mandamus is a judicial remedy in the form of an order from a court to any government, subordinate court, corporation, or public authority, to do some specific act which that body is obliged under law to do, and which is in the nature of public duty, and in certain cases one of a statutory duty.

  41. Pollster
    You are absolutely correct. Council SAY that VOICES informed them that the election HAD TO BE HELD BY May 20. Apparently they feel deceived, & mislead by VOICES. Good

  42. WD, I am concerned that we are agreeing with each other a little too often at the moment. May be we need to generate some “outrage” to fire up the blog?

    Cheers,

    Pollster

  43. Sextus Pompey
    Still WAITNG for that response !. What’s the matter ? Did you find you were a little Wrrrrrrreeeennnggg! or mistaken !?

  44. Zoe Daniel seems like the best selected “Voices for Candidate” – she is running in a seat where the margin is only 7.8% and the combined ALP/GRN vote was over 42% – she needs to take a lot of left votes to get into second and simply extrapolating from other previous seat results that she will take a certain percentage is unlikely be terribly accurate. Labor not having a candidate already out campaigning is her biggest asset, as the “Labor can’t win” message may be cutting through.
    She would seem likely to be supportive of a Labor Minority government if it came to that and not be subject to the conservative seat backlash like some in the past have.
    In a parallel universe, a decent swing from LIB to ALP may have been on.
    Other IND candidates, including “Voices of” may not have been so well targeted in some other seats.

  45. Zoe Daniel had another supporter rally on the weekend, her team produced a montage of it that you can find on twitter. Once again, easily hundreds turned out for her. What’s most striking to me is that it was a sea of geriatric white people- exactly the ones you can imagine bought the retirement tax campaign Tim Wilson personally led last election. I do wonder though how many of them are willing to put in mileage on their feet, but if they’re representative of the general swing in the seat, then Goldstein could be one of the most spectacular single contests of all this year. Hopefully we’ll get to see more seat polls here, preferably not commissioned by Daniel or Wilson.

    Anyone know if Wilson’s campaign are making use of teal colour accents in campaign literature like Sharma and Frydenberg’s team are?

  46. Yes, Daniel is using teal.

    And as a local (although just outside the electorate), I can confirm that Tim Wilson is not particularly well-liked, he’s considered an arrogant prick by a lot of middle of the road Lib voters.

    Wilson has seen the numbers and is running scared – hence trying to dampen her name recognition.

  47. Oh – you’re asking about Wilson using teal. Not that I’ve noticed, but he does make sure the words “Liberal Party” don’t appear too prominently anywhere.

  48. @Furtive “What’s most striking to me is that it was a sea of geriatric white people.”

    This isn’t surprising to me at all. It seems that retirees, particularly those self-funded retirees in affluent divisions seem to have an aristocratic lifestyle which permits them to be fully engrossed participants in the news-cycles, especially local politics. They are highly engaged voters so they likely have been introduced to the teal/climate independents and been receptive to their message.

    Despite being bothered by Scott Morrison and the Coalition’s actions on a lot of issues, they are still hesitant to vote Labor because they fear their retirement savings, investments, lifestyle and estate/inheritance will be jeopardised by a Labor government.

    An independent that talks about popular issues that don’t involve solutions which might personally affect them is perfect for these oldies.

  49. Goldstein is giving some Warringah 2019 vibes this time around. This is the best chance for Voices to pickup a seat, along with maybe Wentworth.

Newer Comments »

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here