Forrest – Australia 2022

LIB 14.6%

Incumbent MP
Nola Marino, since 2007.

Geography
South-western corner of Western Australia. Forrest covers the towns of Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. Forrest is made up of Augusta-Margaret River, Bunbury, Busselton, Capel, Dardanup, Donnybrook-Balingup and Harvey council areas.

Redistribution
Forrest lost the Nannup council area to O’Connor.

History
Forrest was created for the 1922 election. It has been held predominantly by conservative parties, first by the Country Party before the Second World War and then the Liberal Party. It has only been won by the ALP at three elections.

John Prowse won Forrest in 1922 for the Country Party. Prowse had won the seat of Swan in 1919, before moving to the new seat in 1922. Prowse held the seat for two decades, until his defeat in 1943.

The ALP’s Nelson Lemmon won Forrest in 1943. He was re-elected in 1946, and was then appointed Minister for Works and Housing in the Chifley government, and he was responsible for the commencement of the Snowy Mountains Scheme. He lost Forrest in 1949.

The Liberal Party’s Gordon Freeth won Forrest in 1949. He was appointed to the Menzies government’s ministry in 1958, and served as a minister continuously until his defeat in 1969, when Forrest was won by the ALP’s Frank Kirwan.

Kirwan lost in 1972, going against the trend which saw the Whitlam government end 23 years of Liberal rule. He was defeated by Liberal candidate Peter Drummond. Drummond held the seat until his retirement in 1987.

Geoff Prosser won Forrest in 1987. He joined the Liberal frontbench in 1990, and was appointed as a minister in the Howard government after the 1996 election. He only lasted until 1997, when he was forced to resign due to breaches of the code of conduct. He served as a backbencher until his retirement in 2007.

Nola Marino was elected in 2007, and re-elected four times.

Candidates

  • Helen Allan (United Australia)
  • Paul Markham (Liberal Democrats)
  • Mailee Dunn (Federation)
  • Christine Terrantroy (Greens)
  • Greg Stephens (Western Australia Party)
  • Tracy Aitken (Great Australian Party)
  • Bronwen English (Labor)
  • Shane Mezger (One Nation)
  • Nola Marino (Liberal)
  • Assessment
    Forrest is a safe Liberal seat.

    2019 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Nola Marino Liberal 47,47052.5+3.052.5
    Wayne Sanford Labor 19,12621.1-2.021.2
    Nerilee Boshammer Greens 11,64512.9+0.912.8
    Kalven Wayne JamiesonOne Nation5,3715.9+5.96.0
    Mark MccallShooters, Fishers and Farmers2,8813.2+3.23.2
    Dale Geoffrey BromleyUnited Australia Party1,5641.7+1.71.7
    Alexander MarsdenIndependent1,2381.4+1.41.4
    Ian Bruce MolyneuxWestern Australia Party1,1671.3+1.31.3
    Informal5,4185.7-0.2

    2019 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Nola Marino Liberal 58,40564.6+2.064.6
    Wayne Sanford Labor 32,05735.4-2.035.4

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into five areas. Polling places in Bunbury, Busselton and Harvey local government areas have been divided along council lines, with the remainder of the electorate split into “South” and “Central”.

    The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all five areas, ranging from 54.5% in the south to 67.5% in the centre.

    The Greens primary vote ranged from 8.2% in the north to 28.1% in the south.

    Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Central11.467.514,61816.3
    Bunbury12.658.411,41312.7
    Busselton15.766.910,93412.2
    North8.265.710,91012.2
    South28.154.55,2155.8
    Pre-poll11.666.825,60028.6
    Other votes12.966.410,90412.2

    Election results in Forrest at the 2019 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.

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    2 COMMENTS

    1. Amazing that one of the most conservative areas in the country at all levels of government has its own Greens stronghold, around Margaret River and Yallingup.

    2. You are correct, Wilson. I imagine this as sea change country, but I haven’t visited this area for over 20 years. Either way, those are astonishingly strong booths for the Greens; the sorts of results I’d expect in inner city suburbs. I wonder if this area is pointing to a trend that will appear in other lifestyle areas now that COVID-19 has made remote working more common….

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