Adelaide – Australia 2022

ALP 8.2%

Incumbent MP
Steve Georganas, since 2019. Previously member for Hindmarsh, 2004-2013 and 2016-2019.

Geography
Central Adelaide. The seat of Adelaide includes the Adelaide CBD as well as the surrounding suburbs including Unley, North Adelaide, Norwood, St Peters, Prospect, Croydon Park, Hindmarsh and Blair Athol.

History
Adelaide is an original South Australian electorate, having been created for the 1903 election, the first at which single-member electorates were used in South Australia for a federal election. While the ALP has held the seat for a majority of its existence, it has been held by conservative parties for much of this period, including eleven years in the 1990s and 2000s.

Adelaide was first won in 1903 by Protectionist candidate Charles Kingston. Kingston was a former liberal Premier of South Australia who was elected one of South Australia’s seven MPs in 1901 before winning Adelaide in 1903. He was Australia’s first Minister for Trade, but resigned from the ministry in 1903. He was re-elected to Adelaide in 1906 before dying of a stroke in 1908.

The ensuing by-election was won by the ALP’s Ernest Roberts. Roberts served as a minister in Andrew Fisher’s government and was re-elected in 1910 and 1913 before dying suddenly later in 1913. Another by-election in Adelaide was held in early 1914 and was won by the ALP’s Edwin Yates.

Yates was re-elected at the 1914 and 1917 elections, but was defeated in 1919 by Nationalist candidate Reginald Blundell, who had previously been a state MP and minister in the state Labor government before the split over conscription and continued in a conservative government until its defeat in 1918. Blundell only held Adelaide for one term, losing to Yates in 1922. Yates held the seat again for the ALP until 1931.

In 1931 Yates was defeated by United Australia Party candidate Fred Stacey. Stacey held the seat for the UAP until 1943, when an ALP landslide win swept Stacey aside, and Adelaide was won by ALP candidate Cyril Chambers. Chambers served as Ben Chifley’s Minister for the Army following the 1946 election until Chifley’s defeat in 1949.

Chambers remained in Parliament in opposition, although criticism of HV Evatt’s leadership saw him expelled for a year in 1957-8, and by the time he was readmitted it was too late to be preselected for the 1958 election, and he was replaced by the ALP’s Joe Sexton.

Sexton held Adelaide until 1966, when he was defeated by Andrew Jones of the Liberal Party, who was 22 at the time and one of the youngest people ever elected to Australia’s federal parliament. Jones held the seat for one term but lost it in 1969 when the political balance swung back from the Liberal landslide of 1966.

The ALP’s Chris Hurford won the seat in 1969, and held the seat for eighteen years. He served as a minister in the first two terms of the Hawke government before retiring at the end of 1987 to take up the position of Consul-General to New York. His retirement triggered a third Adelaide by-election in February 1988, where a large swing saw the seat lost to Liberal candidate Mike Pratt.

Pratt only held Adelaide for two years, losing to the ALP’s Bob Catley at the 1990 election. Catley lost the seat in 1993 to Trish Worth, who held the seat for the Liberal Party for over a decade. She held the seat at the next three elections, but lost in 2004 to the ALP’s Kate Ellis, going against the trend of a strong national result for the Liberal Party.

Ellis was re-elected four times, and served as a minister in the Labor government from 2007 to 2013. She retired at the 2019 election.

South Australia lost a seat at the pre-2019 redistribution, and Adelaide became safer for Labor. Labor MP Steve Georganas, who had held the neighbouring seat of Hindmarsh at all but one election since 2004, won the seat of Adelaide.

Candidates

Assessment
Adelaide, on its current electoral boundaries, is a safe Labor seat.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steve Georganas Labor 43,16340.3+1.2
Shaun Osborn Liberal 38,75336.2+3.6
Barbara Pocock Greens 16,85315.7+5.8
Antonio ReaUnited Australia Party3,4793.2+3.3
Deanna KangasAnimal Justice2,8942.7+1.2
Chris JamesDemocrats2,0391.9+1.9
Informal4,1183.7-0.2

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steve Georganas Labor 62,36258.2-0.1
Shaun Osborn Liberal 44,81941.8+0.1

Booth breakdown

Polling places have been divided into three parts: north, south-east and west.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the south-east to 67.2% in the west.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 14.4% in the north to 19.6% in the south-east.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North14.459.337,83535.3
West16.367.216,68315.6
South-East19.654.516,12415.0
Pre-poll16.053.716,10015.0
Other votes14.455.220,43919.1

Election results in Adelaide at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor, the Liberal Party and the Greens.

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12 COMMENTS

  1. ALP retain.

    Greens did very well in the City of Adelaide booths in 2019, but don’t seem to have truly taken off here like in other inner city seats around the country, and seem to struggle to get momentum even in the much more manageable state seat. It’s their strongest seat in SA but Boothby is surprisingly close on senate results. Anyone have any idea why? Even Hobart and Canberra have more Green friendly inner cities.

  2. Adelaide (state) has quite a large small-l liberal contingent by the looks of it. Greens do well across the board but Labor win the seat at federal level because they do better in the suburbs around the city

  3. This is no foregone conclusion despite practically no swing here last time. Remember Georganas lost his seat to Liberal hero Matt Williams in 2013 so anything is possible but I’m tipping a narrow Labor hold.

  4. NOTHING LIKE GOOD OL’ LIB HACKS.
    I’LL CAPITALISE IT LIKE WINEDIAMOND TO MAKE IT CLEAR TO YOU THAT THIS MIRACLE LIBERAL LANDSLIDE WILL NEVER HAPPEN BECAUSE FUN FACT ~ THEY’RE NOT AS WELL-LOVED AS YOU SEEM TO THINK!!

  5. Ryan, knock it off will you. People are entitled to their own opinions, however wrong you might think they are. Disagree if you must, but the caps is just silly bravado.

    Perhaps you’d feel more comfortable with the commentariat over at Pollbludger? At least here there is a diversity of opinions.

  6. look here 58/42 2pp i cannot find a single liberal party booth…. on these boundaries is a guaranteed labor seat….. this is much stronger for labor than either the old Adelaide and the old Hindmarsh

  7. wreathy its called sarcasm and people are entitled to their opinions, no matter how biased and deliberately impossible they are. Unfortunately I feel its borderline misinformation at this point when they mark off seats like Adelaide and Fowler, among others as being “narrow Labor holds” despite giving no reasoning, inadequate or otherwise; and criticising Chris Hayes retiring despite the fact he has health issues. I have agreed with the slightly more right-leaning commentators on this blog recently (see McMahon) however I fear the response you lot will give when Ben releases the WA pages; and see whether the misinformation will continue. There is no possible way that anyone would find a reason for WA to swing TO the Liberals, and the previous claims that Anne Aly would lose her seat because of the redistribution are quite frankly unsubstantiated, false and deliberately disingenuous. We also should stick to Boothby and Mayo because anyone who thinks Adelaide is going to be narrow (to quote Hawke) is a bum.

  8. Ryan Spencer
    Have a little compassion for us seniors (i won’t ask for respect ! mainly because i think when oldies do that it is unbelievably piss-weak) !!. We are technically challenged & i for one don’t know how to change font !!. Didn’t think of that did you !?. Besides i’ve found that it helps to shout occasionally to keep the attention of you young whippersnappers !! ( younger generations seem to have a distressingly brief attention span ) !!
    WHO EXACTLY ARE THE SUPPOSED “”Lib HACKS” !!!??? WTF!!!! Put up or S… UP !!. Name names !!. Who has (EVER) made wild predictions of LIB Landslides !!?? WTF !! HOW DARE YOU play political games of MISREPRESENTATION,DECEPTION, MISDIRECTION, on this virtuous , morally pure meeting place !? If you keep on displaying & refining such abilities someone may want to draft you to run for office. That ought to give you pause lad !!
    . I’d suggest in my own defence that i use caps sparingly, & usually for dramatic, or comic effect !!.

    Wreathy of Sydney
    All fair points mate. True,Some things just need to be said. However as you say Ryan does have the choice of more comfort, & consensus, in other places, & he has chosen to be here with us. So we do have a task, even perhaps a duty ?. May i suggest, a touch less crankiness please (I understand that it can be challenging !!,) amusing though it is !!
    cheers WD

  9. Ryan, oh no I completely understand and agree with you (see my comments on the main thread). Some have shown an incredulous bullishness for the Coalition which is not supported by the evidence. I do apologise for my angered remark earlier; it’s just that the last thing we want is stifled debate.

    That said, most commenters seem to agree that:
    1. The Libs will not win a landslide;
    2. WA will swing (probably heavily) to Labor;
    3. Slim pickings for the Libs outside of NSW.

    WD, yes…a momentary loss of composure on my part!

  10. Don’t ignore the effect of the last redistribution. The abolition of Port Adelaide means Adelaide extends further west than it used it. Like Hindmarsh, it’s basically a safe Labor seat now. My reading of graph above suggests its unlikely Trish Worth would have ever won Adelaide on these boundaries (perhaps line ball in 1996?).

  11. Wreathy of Sydney
    Good summation of what we seem in broad agreement on.
    May i be presumptuous enough to add ?
    No one is predicting PM Albanese. Credlin was saying last night that there has never been a less engaged Leader of opposition. Not only does he NOT request briefings, he doesn’t always go to the ones he is invited too !. What is this bloke thinking ?. Does he think being controlled will get him there.? WHERE IS HIS PASSION !!?? FFS.!!
    ALL & i mean all my morrison hating friends (not just lefties ) are at best in complete denial about his re -election, -just hoping for a “miracle” Trying desperately not to even think about Albo, or changing the subject to fantasies of a Penny Wong “Ascension” ( Personally i usually choke, & always {“”lose composure as you”” put it so well !} when this happens !) Their dreams, are my nightmare….!
    cheers wd

  12. Indeed Labor did 3.5% better in 2004 on the 2019 boundaries than on the 2004 boundaries. Apply that to the 1996 result and you end up with a dead heat. Having said that, the seat had become a lot safer for Labor without redistribution effects right up to 2016, since it’s not just the redistribution.

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