Stirling – Australia 2013

LIB 5.6%

Incumbent MP
Michael Keenan, since 2004.

Geography
Northern suburbs of Perth. The seat covers most of the Stirling local government area. The seat stretches from Mirrabooka in the north-east, to Menora in the south-east, to Scarborough and Waterman on the west coast.

History
Stirling was first created for the 1955 election, and has always been a marginal electorate, with every member for the seat being defeated, with no-one serving in the seat for more than 11 years. Despite this seat being a marginal seat for half a century, the seat has often been held by Opposition members.

The seat was first won by Harry Webb of the ALP in 1955, when he moved from the nearby seat of Swan. Webb was defeated by Liberal Doug Cash in 1958, before winning it back in 1961. Ian Viner (LIB) won the seat in 1972, against the flow as Gough Whitlam won office. Viner held the seat for eleven years, serving as a minister in the Fraser government, as a junior minister from 1975 until 1980, when he joined the Cabinet.

Viner was defeated in 1983 by Ron Edwards (ALP), who was defeated in 1993 by radio presenter Eoin Cameron (LIB). Cameron lost to Jann McFarlane (ALP) in 1998. Like Cameron before her, McFarlane held the seat for two terms before losing in 2004 to Michael Keenan (LIB).

Keenan was challenged in 2007 by former SAS officer Peter Tinley, who gained a small swing against Keenan, but not enough to win. Keenan expanded his margin in 2010 with a 4.3% swing.

Candidates

  • Tim Clifford (Greens)
  • Kevin Host (Australian Christians)
  • Matueny Marial Luke (Family First)
  • Wayne Thompson (Palmer United Party)
  • Kim Mubarak (Independent)
  • Michael Keenan (Liberal)
  • Alison Rowe (Rise Up Australia)
  • Dan Caddy (Labor)

Assessment
Stirling is a marginal seat but the Liberal Party should comfortably retain it in 2013.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael KeenanLIB40,22849.91+2.71
Louise DurackALP25,68831.87-8.54
Chris MartinGRN10,39912.90+5.25
Elizabeth ReIND1,8242.26+2.26
Jenny WhatelyCDP1,6302.02+0.26
Peter CliffordFF8381.04+0.39

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael KeenanLIB44,77555.55+4.28
Louise DurackALP35,83244.45-4.28
Polling places in Stirling at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, East in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Stirling at the 2010 federal election. Central in orange, East in green, West in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: east, west and central.

The Liberal Party won a majority in all three areas, varying from 51% in the east to 60.3% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East12.1051.0225,00731.02
West13.1060.2819,72824.47
Central12.2255.3417,21421.36
Other votes14.3956.8118,65823.15
Two-party-preferred votes in Stirling at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Stirling at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Stirling at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Stirling at the 2010 federal election.

10 COMMENTS

  1. It was noted during the state election that the northern coastal suburbs have firmed up for the Liberal Party over the years….I’m guessing that’s the story behind this becoming better and better for the Coalition in the last decade or so?

    It looks like it’s only the small clutch of booths in Mirrabooka that keeps this from being a safe seat.

  2. Agree with Ben. Under normal circumstances this should be a marginal and swinging seat. Probably not this time. Keenan will likely increase his margin, where as, the south of the state may move little.

  3. MDM: There doesn’t seem to be much in it (it’s probably more of an effect in state politics). The northern coastal sprawl is more Moore than Stirling (post-1990 anyway), but Moore has stayed reliably between 3.5% and 6% safer for the Libs than the state overall. There’s a bit of a trend to the Libs, but nothing major.

    As for Scarborough, it’s bit of an oddity… too far north to be the western suburbs, but too old to be part of the last few decades’ sprawl. That’s the cluster of booths with high Green votes and lower Lib 2pp’s. The state seat is probably the only one on this stretch of coast Labor could win in a good year (with a current margin of 17%, obviously this wasn’t a good year).

    Try comparing Stirling to WA and you end up with a mess, as you’d expect for a seat with a habit of electing opposition members. In 2010 it was 0.86% better for Labor than the state, ie: if Labor managed a 50-50 result across WA, this would be very winnable. It’s a weird seat.

  4. There have been some crazy swings in Stirling’s time, but I think it’s unlikely Labor has much of chance here. Lib hold, maybe a minor swing either way.

  5. The PUP candidate just posted a press release calling for support on Polling day, the statement concluded with the lines:

    “The Campaign is now going extremely well and our internal polling suggests the best is yet to come on election day.”

    Are they just being hopeful or is Palmer going to surprise us all?

  6. Delusional is likely closer to the truth. I think it’s likely this claim goes in the same bin as Palmer’s North Sydney and Waringah claims.

    Just wanted to check if anyone had access to their polling though.

  7. Reid Hwy Mitchell Fwy interchange ( a single 3 lane bridge), and Erindale Rd as well is a congested mess and has been getting progressively worse. The liberal party has had 5 years to do something but nothing has happened. As a result the traffic is spreading into the surrounding streets creating further congestion eg Wanneroo Rd and Reid Hwy and Beach Rd.
    The Federal libs says they will fix the roads but I know that means Sydney Melbourne and Brisbane.
    This is the opportunity to register a strong protest vote against the do nothing party in WA (apart from Betty’s quay and the Packer Crown Casino football stadium).
    State and Federal politics are linked eg GST

  8. Michael Keenan is a joke and has done nothing. Colin barnett is destroying WA. dont sit down and watch this travesty continue.

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