|Term expires 2014||Term expires 2017|
|Cory Bernardi (LIB)||Sean Edwards (LIB)|
|Simon Birmingham (LIB)||David Fawcett (LIB)|
|Don Farrell (ALP)||Alex Gallacher (ALP)|
|Sarah Hanson-Young (GRN)||Anne McEwen (ALP)|
|Penny Wong (ALP)||Anne Ruston (LIB)1|
|Nick Xenophon (IND)||Penny Wright (GRN)|
1Anne Ruston replaced Mary Jo Fisher on 5 September 2012 after Senator Fisher’s resignation.
South Australia was represented by five Labor senators and five Liberal senators from 1951 until the 1961 election, when the ALP managed to gain a 6-4 majority. A 5-5 balance was restored in 1967.
Former Liberal premier Steele Hall was elected in 1974 on the ticket of the Liberal Movement, taking a seat away from the Liberal Party. Hall was re-elected in 1975, while the Liberals regained their fifth seat at the expense of the ALP. Hall retired in 1977 and was replaced by Janine Haines of the Democrats. The 1977 election saw the Democrats lose the seat, with the Liberals winning six seats to the ALP’s four.
Haines was returned to the Senate for the Democrats in 1980, alongside five Liberals and four ALP senators. The 1983 double dissolution saw the ALP win a fifth seat off the Liberals. In 1984, the Democrats won a second seat while each major party held five seats. This pattern continued until 1993, when the Liberals won a sixth seat off the ALP, producing a 6-4-2 pattern which was maintained until the 2004 election.
The 2004 election saw the former Democrats seat (belonging to Meg Lees) lost to the ALP, producing a 6-5-1 split. In 2007, Natasha Stott Despoja’s seat was lost. The Liberal Party also lost one of their six seats. The ALP and Liberals each now hold five Senate seats, along with independent Senator Nick Xenophon and Sarah Hanson-Young of the Greens.
In 2010, the ALP lost one of their three seats to the Greens’ Penny Wright, producing an overall split of 5 Liberals, 4 Labor, 2 Greens and one independent.
|Australian Sex Party||16,820||1.67||+1.67||0.1166|
|Shooters and Fishers||11,425||1.13||+0.74||0.0792|
|Democratic Labor Party||6,811||0.67||-0.26||0.0472|
Labor and Liberal each won two seats on primary votes. The Greens sat on over 93% of a quota, with the ALP and Liberal third candidates both between 60% and 70% of a quota.
After the elimination of minor candidates, the final eight candidates had the following votes:
- Penny Wright (GRN) – 0.9443
- Dana Wortley (ALP) – 0.6828
- David Fawcett (LIB) – 0.6144
- Bob Day (FF) – 0.3480
- Ari Reid (SXP) – 0.1215
- Paul Russell (DLP) – 0.1107
- Jeanie Walker (DEM) – 0.0943
- Steve Larsson (SHO) – 0.0828
The Shooters and Fishers preferences mostly flowed to Family First, and Democrats preferences mostly flowed to the Sex Party:
- Wright (GRN) – 0.9512
- Wortley (ALP) – 0.6954
- Fawcett (LIB) – 0.6286
- Day (FF) – 0.4219
- Reid (SXP) – 0.1894
- Russell (DLP) – 0.1121
DLP preferences also flowed to Family First:
- Wright (GRN) – 0.9526
- Wortley (ALP) – 0.6965
- Fawcett (LIB) – 0.6296
- Day (FF) – 0.5296
- Reid (SXP) – 0.1902
A majority of Sex Party preferences flowed to Penny Wright, pushing her over a quota.
- Wright (GRN) – 1.0713
- Wortley (ALP) – 0.7393
- Fawcett (LIB) – 0.6342
- Day (FF) – 0.5534
Wright’s surplus flowed to Labor, and after the elimination of Family First, the Liberal candidate was elected.
- Fawcett (LIB) – 1.1295
- Wortley (ALP) – 0.8662
The Liberal Party are running:
The ALP are running:
Sitting independent Senator Nick Xenophon is running for re-election at the head of the Nick Xenophon Group. The Greens are running sitting Senator Sarah Hanson-Young. The Nationals are running James Stacey. Patricia Petersen’s Australian Independents party is running Tanya Crago. Dianah Mieglich is running as an independent. Family First are running Bob Day. The Stable Population Party is running Greg Oates. The Palmer United Party is running James McDonald. The Animal Justice Party is running Colin Thomas. The Socialist Equality Party is running James Cogan. The Secular Party is running Moira Clarke. Katter’s Australian Party is running Glenn O’Rourke.
In 2010, the ‘left’ reached a total of 3.86 quotas at the end of the count. In normal circumstances, a small swing to the left could see Labor gain an additional seat off the Liberal Party.
In 2013, however, the race will be very different due to the presence of Nick Xenophon. He polled a quota in his own right in 2007, and his profile has not diminished since entering the Senate. It seems likely that Xenophon will again poll around a quota.
In 2007, he took about half a quota away from both major parties, if you compare their Senate vote to their House of Representatives vote in South Australia.
In current circumstances, the presence of Xenophon should make it impossible for Labor to win a third Senate seat. The last seat is likely to be a race between the Greens and the third Liberal.
If you subtract half a quota from the final Liberal vote from 2010, it pulls them down to 2.62 quotas. A swing of 5.4% would bring the Liberal vote back up to 3 quotas, and elect the third Liberal.
The Greens polled close to a quota in 2010, but this was more than twice the vote polled by Sarah Hanson-Young in 2007. It’s likely that some of this vote came from Nick Xenophon, and will go back now that he is on the ballot again.
The Greens cannot win if the vote drops back to a vote similar to that in 2007. In 2007, the Liberal Party fell well short of a quota and didn’t have much in the way of preferences, while Labor preferences flowed to the Greens. Labor is unlikely to have much of a surplus, and the Liberal vote will be stronger.
If Nick Xenophon gains a swing compared to his 2007 vote, and preferences the Greens, they may benefit from a decent surplus, but would still need a solid primary vote.
The Greens will struggle to retain their seat, with the Liberal Party likely to gain the seat.