Ryan – Australia 2013

LNP 7.2%

Incumbent MP
Jane Prentice, since 2010.

Geography
Ryan covers the western suburbs of Brisbane. The seat covers the north side of the Brisbane river from Auchenflower through Toowong, Indooroopilly, Chapel Hill and Kenmore. It also covers suburbs further north including The Gap and Ferny Grove.

History
Ryan was first created in 1949. The seat was first won by Nigel Drury in 1949 for the Liberal Party. Drury held the seat until 1975, mainly serving as a backbencher. He was succeeded by John Moore in 1975. Moore served as a minister in Malcolm Fraser’s final term and served in the shadow cabinet during the Hawke/Keating governments.

Moore served as Minister for Industry, Science and Tourism in John Howard’s first government and become Minister for Defence after the 1998 election. He lost the portfolio in a reshuffle in December 2000 and proceeded to resign from Parliament early in 2001.

A swing of 9.7% gave the normally safe Liberal seat to Labor candidate Leonie Short by 255 votes. Liberal candidate Michael Johnson won back the seat at the 2001 general election. Johnson was reelected in 2004 and 2007. A 6.6% swing to the ALP in 2007 made the seat marginal, and the ensuing redistribution cut the margin further.

Michael Johnson was expelled from the Liberal National Party in May 2010 due to controversies surrounding his role as Chair of the Australia-China Business Forum.

The LNP preselected Brisbane city councillor Jane Prentice in 2010. Prentice won the seat comfortably. Michael Johnson ran as an independent, and came fourth with 8.5% of the vote.

Candidates

  • Damian Hamwood (Labor)
  • Charles Worringham (Greens)
  • Jane Prentice (Liberal National)
  • Craig Gunnis (Palmer United Party)
  • Peter Walker (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Michael C Sweedman (Secular Party)
  • Lisa Demedio (Family First)

Assessment
Ryan should be comfortably retained by the LNP.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jane PrenticeLNP40,71345.73-1.16
Steven MilesALP22,27425.02-13.54
Sandra BayleyGRN16,88418.96+9.08
Michael JohnsonIND7,5638.49+8.49
Allan VincentFF1,6001.80+0.27

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Jane PrenticeLNP50,89657.16+5.95
Steven MilesALP38,13842.84-5.95
Polling places in Ryan at the 2010 federal election. Enoggera in orange, Indooroopilly in blue, The Gap in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Ryan at the 2010 federal election. Enoggera in orange, Indooroopilly in blue, The Gap in green, West in red. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Most of the population lies at the eastern end of the electorate, and these areas have been split into three areas. From north to south, these are Enoggera, The Gap and Indooroopilly. The remainder of the booths, most of which lie near the Brisbane River, have been grouped as “West”.

The LNP won majorities in three out of four areas, varying from 53.3% in The Gap to 64.1% in the west. The ALP won a 52.2% majority in Enoggera.

The Greens vote won just over 16% in Enoggera and West, and just over 20% in Indooroopilly and The Gap.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Indooroopilly20.5259.6229,88833.57
The Gap20.4053.2814,56116.35
Enoggera16.4347.8311,97213.45
West16.2564.0611,75713.21
Other votes18.7157.8420,85623.42
Two-party-preferred votes in Ryan at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Ryan at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Ryan at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Ryan at the 2010 federal election.

21 COMMENTS

  1. Excellent write-up as usual Mr. Raue, although I just had a look on the pendulum page, and the link to Ryan isn’t there.

    Also, where did Johnson do best?

  2. “…and has been only held by four people.” Isn’t it five?—Drury, Moore, Short, Johnson and Prentice?

  3. Ah, caught me out! I’ve re-used a lot of the history from my 2010 guide, so sometimes I’ve missed those kinds of references. Thanks for that, I’ve fixed it now.

  4. Wow, Labor must get some terrible booth results around here. For example, the Brookfield booth with 75% LNP 2PP and a 14% Green vote. I’m aware that some of the green vote must have gone to the LNP, but Labor couldn’t have gotten above 20% primary on those numbers

  5. Labor got 14% primary vote at Brookfield.

    Johnson’s best individual booth was 12% at Karana Downs.

  6. Palmer is running the manager of his car museum Craig Gunnis. Jane Prentice is very well known and liked in her electorate. She will easily retain this seat. Greens could very likely come second this election.

  7. It will be interesting if the Flegg issue has any impact on this seat as he is a local member here. Plus I think some of Newman’s seat around The Gap is in the area.

  8. It’d also be interesting to see what happens to the Greens here as they received a remarkable 9% swing

  9. Historically, the Pullenvale Ward (Kenmore, Brookfield, Moggill) was the safest Liberal ward in the Brisbane City Council. I wonder if there are still pineapple farms in Moggill (where I went to school 30 years ago) ?

  10. I think this will be an interesting result here and especially to see whether the Bruce Flegg incident will play a role, then again you’d have to be use to the old dirt grubby tactics and behaviour that stinks from the LNP office from the days of Joh

  11. Hi Sacha,

    The pineapple farms were around when I went to school as well, but the whole area was sold off and a housing development went in about ten years ago.

  12. There’s no doubt that this seat will have a swing to the LNP. Possibly taking it over a 10% margin.

    Contrary to some of the earlier comments here, I don’t think the issues with Flegg will substantially affect voting in the seat – it hasn’t gotten much media coverage in the last month.

  13. The ALP tried to push hard into this seat in 2007. I know because I live in Kenmore. That was their best chance for a generation but they just failed. In 2013 the most advertising is for the Greens around Kenmore. I think they may get 2nd on first preferences like many seats on Sydney’s North Shore during the 2011 State election. They just failed to obtain 2nd on first preferences in Moggill for the 2012 State election.

  14. I agree with you Bear, this is one of those seats where the greens are going to take over from Labor as the alternative party. Brisbane City Council results in the area reflect this as well.

  15. Will this be Jane Prentice’s last election? She is getting on in age and perhaps next election it will be time to bring in some new blood, especially if she remains a backbencher.

  16. If you honestly think Jane will move or retire orparty will get rid of her – you really need to learn more about the LNP in Ryan and Queensland. Like or loathe – she is there for the long haul. And – more than likely after tomorrow – will be the ‘senior’ (in terms of importance not age – lol) female LNP representative in Queensland. Looking at the talent around – probably a Minister by Sunday.

Comments are closed.