LNP 10.4%
Incumbent MP
Paul Neville, since 1993.
Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.
History
Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984.
Hinkler was won in 1984 by Bryan Conquest (NAT), who only held the seat until 1987, when Brian Courtice (ALP) won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and has held it ever since.
Neville’s margin was cut to less than 2% in 2007, but a swing of 8.9% in 2010 strengthened his hold on the seat.
Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Paul Neville is not running for re-election.
- Leanne Donaldson (Labor)
- David Dalgleish (Katter’s Australian Party)
- Reid Schirmer (Independent)
- Troy Sullivan (Family First)
- Keith Pitt (Liberal National)
- Mark Simpson (Greens)
- Rob Messenger (Palmer United Party)
Assessment
Hinkler is a safe LNP seat.
2010 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Neville | LNP | 44,382 | 54.95 | +8.67 |
| Belinda McNeven | ALP | 26,246 | 32.50 | -10.57 |
| Jenny Fitzgibbon | GRN | 4,611 | 5.71 | +1.63 |
| Trevor Versace | FF | 2,562 | 3.17 | -0.37 |
| Adrian Wone | IND | 1,698 | 2.10 | +2.10 |
| Cy D’Oliveira | IND | 1,264 | 1.57 | +1.57 |
2010 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Paul Neville | LNP | 48,770 | 60.39 | +8.87 |
| Belinda McNeven | ALP | 31,993 | 39.61 | -8.87 |
Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into four areas. Hinkler covers parts of Bundaberg and Fraser Coast council areas. Those in the Fraser Coast council area, including Hervey Bay, have been grouped together. Those in Bundaberg Region have been split between those in the Bundaberg urban area, those rural booths near Bundaberg as Woongarra, and those to the south of Bundaberg as Isis.
The LNP won a 55.4% majority in Bundaberg, and a majority of just under 62% in the other three areas.
| Voter group | GRN % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Fraser Coast | 6.16 | 61.93 | 25,221 | 31.23 |
| Bundaberg | 4.91 | 55.42 | 20,324 | 25.16 |
| Woongarra | 5.56 | 61.76 | 9,524 | 11.79 |
| Isis | 5.54 | 61.34 | 3,378 | 4.18 |
| Other votes | 6.02 | 62.44 | 22,316 | 27.63 |
A lot of ALP voters will go to KAP as well, but not to PUP I shouldn’t think.
Pup’s ticket directs to katter. I suggest 75/80 percent of pup voters will follow that. My belief is lnp around 35 to 40 percent, alp just over 30%, Kap around 15%, pup about 12%. I could be very wrong tho. About 5% margin in tpp
A late ‘seat of the day’ profile by PB, http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2013/09/04/seats-of-the-day-fairfax-hinkler-and-flynn/
Messenger’s probably a better chance among Palmer’s mob of getting in – better even than Palmer himself.
Labor candidate was in court this week. If her vote collapses pup comes into play
Observer: “I recon that alot of LNP voters will go to KAP or PUP. SHould be retained by the LNP but should swing to labor”
Which is basically what happened! At one point early in the count (about 7pm) it actually was projecting as a PUP gain….http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionFirstPrefs-17496-166.htm
I guess this seat came the closest to my ongoing call that most likely one of the mid nth Qld seats would throw us a surprise result with the PUP & KAP votes.