Hasluck – Australia 2013

LIB 0.6%

Incumbent MP
Ken Wyatt, since 2010.

Geography
Hasluck covers eastern portions of the Perth metropolitan area, stretching from Caversham and Middle Swan in the north, through suburbs including Midland, Guildford, High Wycombe, Gooseberry Hill, Kalamunda, Forrestfield, Lesmurdie, Maddington and Gosnells, to Southern River at its southern end. It includes most of Gosnells LGA, the more populated parts of Kalamunda LGA, the southern corner of Swan LGA, and small portions of Mundaring LGA.

History
Hasluck was created for the 2001 election. It had a notional ALP margin of 2.6% and was won for Labor by Sharryn Jackson, with a small notional swing to the Liberals. At the next three elections, the sitting MP was defeated at every election.

A 3.6% swing to the Liberals in 2004 saw Jackson defeated by Stuart Henry. Jackson returned to contest the seat again in 2007 and regained the seat from Henry on a 3.1% swing.

In 2010, the Liberal candidate Ken Wyatt won the seat off Jackson with a 1.4% swing.

Candidates

  • Ken Wyatt (Liberal)
  • Chris Munro (Sex Party)
  • Daniel Stevens (Katter’s Australian Party)
  • Adrian Evans (Labor)
  • Robin Scott (Palmer United Party)
  • Peter Langlands (Greens)
  • Jason Whittaker (Australian Christians)
  • Kyran Sharrin (Family First)

Assessment
Hasluck is a very marginal seat, the most marginal seat in Western Australia. In current circumstances, however, the Liberal Party should strengthen their position.

2010 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken WyattLIB34,63841.99-1.38
Sharryn JacksonALP30,95737.53-3.82
Glenice SmithGRN10,53912.78+4.47
Linda BrewerCDP2,5053.04+0.04
Jim McCourtFF1,8612.26+1.03
Dot HenryIND1,4571.77+1.77
Andrew MiddletonCLSK5390.65+0.65

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken WyattLIB41,72250.57+1.42
Sharryn JacksonALP40,77449.43-1.42
Polling places in Hasluck at the 2010 federal election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Hasluck at the 2010 federal election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas. Hasluck is a long and thin seat, running from north to south. Booths in Mundaring and Swan council areas are grouped as ‘north’. Booths in Kalamunda have been grouped as ‘central’, and booths in Gosnells have been grouped as ‘south’.

The Liberal Party only won a majority in one of these three areas, polling 55.8% in the centre. The ALP won a majority in the south and north, both between 53% and 54%.

The Greens vote varied from 14.8% in the north to 11.5% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
South12.6146.5629,27735.49
Central11.5455.8324,50329.70
North14.7746.049,22411.18
Other votes13.6452.1419,49223.63
Two-party-preferred votes in Hasluck at the 2010 federal election.
Two-party-preferred votes in Hasluck at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Hasluck at the 2010 federal election.
Greens primary votes in Hasluck at the 2010 federal election.

36 COMMENTS

  1. On state figures, Hasluck would be marginal Liberal (a point or two safer than currently), but this area went all over the place at the state election. Hasluck more or less covers four state seats, from north to south:

    Midland: safe Labor before, but is now one of WA Labor’s most marginal seats after a big swing. Like Perth and Belmont, it was one of those seats not many people thought were in play.

    Forrestfield: was Labor’s most marginal seat, and the Libs won it but with one of the smallest swings in WA. It’s actually now more marginal than Perth. I’m guessing that’s where plenty of Labor’s campaigning happened.

    Kalamunda: was already fairly safe for the Libs and swung to them a bit more on 2pp, but their primary vote stood still – two independents got 19% between them, which came straight off Labor and the Greens. (The independent with 13.7% was a former Labor candidate.)

    Gosnells: again, one of the smallest swings to the Libs, and that was thanks to the Green vote more than halving (Labor actually went up a bit on primary vote). It’s now a bit more marginal than it was, but not in danger of turning blue. Good old Gozzy, it’s an old-fashioned bogan suburb on the Armadale line. (Meanwhile, just across the river, the new mortgage-belt suburbia of Southern River swung 15% to the Libs!)

    Taken all together, I dunno what that says about Labor’s chances. Game on, I suppose. Ken Wyatt will probably get a sophomore surge, but this is generally a mostly Labor-leaning area. It’s not impossible for Labor to win.

  2. If Labor couldn’t win Hasluck in 2010 with a sitting member, I don’t see how they will beat first term member Ken Wyatt at this election.

    Liberal retain.

  3. I agree with bird. the argument that labor will has reached a high watermark in victoria would have to apply to the liberals in WA. Even in landslide defeats, parties can still win seats. Howard won 2 seats in WA in 07, even the liberals lost seats in 96. so its not impossible for labor to do better in WA, especially whe WA might wait to hear some results before voting and giving abbott a blank cheque and with barnett now turning into a newman premier

  4. Come on Ken Wyatt is a strong local member in the Coalition strongest state. I do not think that WA has reached its high water mark for the liberals just yet especially since the more popular WA labor party’s TPP was one percent worse. I am predicting I strong swing towards Wyatt which will take this seat out of the marginal column. The Bludger currently has a 3.6 precent swing in WA which may be a bit high however a 2.5% swing seems likely. It is irrational taking about Coaltion seats falling in light of the current circumstances.

  5. I’m with you there Pzsilos. Generally the causes of a government winning seats in spite of a landslide defeat can be attributed to redistributions, local scandals or a significant micro issue within a local community. This election has not seen major redistributions or local scandals and is being fought almost entirely on big-picture macro issues. I could see instances where a more marginal seat might hold out against the blue tide, but it’s hard to see somewhere that will swing toward Labor (except maybe in the Labor vs Green seats).

  6. Tend to agree with Macca above; WA will probably swing much less to the Liberals than the average, but it’s very hard to credit a swing TO Labor.

  7. Something to chew on: the next redistribution will make Hasluck look VERY different. WA gains a 16th seat, and with the way the southern sprawl suburbs have been growing lately, I reckon that seat will be based on that area. Here’s my guesswork:

    Fremantle and Tangney will contract towards the river, losing the Jandakot / Atwell area (Freo) and Canning Vale (Tangney). Meanwhile, Swan is bounded on three sides by either the Swan or Canning rivers and on the fourth by Hasluck, which will take Cannington and/or Belmont. This will pull Hasluck north – it’ll probably lose all the Gosnells council area. Between Atwell / Success, Canning Vale, Huntingdale / Southern River and Gosnells / Thornlie, there’s plenty of room for a new seat. Hasluck would probably need to take bits of the Swan valley from Perth and/or Pearce as well. (Pearce could end up unrecognisable.)

  8. B of p
    Chewing away !!!!. Our household has 2 renowned persistent, & tenacious “chewers” (standard black& tan daschunds ) !!!. The way i see it, the nett equation is that a lib seat gets created in WA, & probably SA loses an ALP or very marginal seat.

  9. Nielson Poll shows that state by state, there is a 1% swing to labor therefore this puts Hasluck in play

  10. Observer – I think we need to look a bit deeper that that. First, there will be a sophomore surge to Wyatt. Second, this is the first Nielson (or any poll) in WA that has shown it to be this close for a long long time. I’d suggest there is a high margin of error, or perhaps Howard Sattler temporarily put some Libs back in the Labor camp. I wouldn’t take one poll on a small sample as literal however. The next Newspoll quarterly might be a better guide as to State trends.

    I don’t think Labor can win Hasluck this time.

  11. DB- I think thats where your wrong, yes most people were offended by the comments but the real surge of support for labor would have been in progressive areas like Melbourne where she is liked. Not all MPs would receive the surge, a number of new labor MPs in marginal seats like greenway wont get that surge and it would be silly to assume the same here especially considering that WA was worst for ALP last time and that it was a high water mark for the Libs and that WA will know the results when they vote which may stop them from giving Abbott a blank cheque. Also Barnett is becoming a Newman which so close to the election will have an influence. I also suspect during the campaign the murdoch media may have the guts to ask Abbott to come clean about GST which will dissapoint many in WA

  12. Become a newman? U mean like newman still has a 2 party prefered approaching 60 percent

  13. I’m sorry, Observer, but that is an awful lot of wishful thinking. What DB is saying is that if there is any credibility to that low-sample poll, it is that it might have picked up (and possibly exaggerated) some movement based on the Sattler interview. And if that is the only real thing happening, it is likely to dissipate quickly.

    I understand what it is like to watch you party move inexorably toward a buzz saw, and the best thing to do is get used to the idea that it is going to bad, really bad. It hurts a hell of a lot more when you convince yourself it won’t be so terrible. Just ask the people who convinced themselves the QLP would end up with 20-some seats in 2012.

  14. Would Wyatt’s aboriginality make him attractive to soft Green voters? Other factor here is donkey vote which probably won it for Libs last time

  15. Wondering if I’ll be eligible to vote in this electorate this year. Our land has just titled, settlement next week, and we’ll be living here to almost the entirety of the next term… then there’ll be at least one more ALP vote. So marginal, maybe that will make the difference? #believe

  16. It is still very early but everything seems to point towards Hasluck being one of a handful of seats which we won’t know the result on election night.

  17. This is often the case for this seat aswell as probably the NT and TAS where incumbency is valued but in this electorate, I’d say the two North and South sides make this tricky to call and this is afterall where the sophmore surge is yet to occur

  18. Given how much Labor has been on the nose in WA over the years, even in the face of the Rudd triumph of 2007, this seat really shouldn’t be marginal for the Liberals. They should hold it by considerably more.
    With all due respect to Wyatt, one has to wonder about his competence as a political candidate and politician.
    On the other hand, one has to wonder if the presence of Jackson in 2010 prevented the Liberals from winning this seat more easily. After all, she won this seat in 2007 despite a general swing against Labor in WA, although she was known as a former MP for the area, having won the seat in 2001 and lost it in 2004 before winning it back.
    Even so, Wyatt really shouldn’t be on so vulnerable a margin. I tip him to win, but not with much confidence.

  19. Bit of backlash to the local state Liberal government due to broken promises and changes on solar power. From what I’ve seen, both parties desperate to win this seat and hitting the campaign trail very hard each weekend.

    My gut feel is that this seat is line ball 50-50. Interested to see if anyone has any polling?

  20. DB, & Yappo
    There it is. Evidence that the people of WA accept the reality,if not truth, that the ALP is no friend of WA. Game over for Hasluck, & Swan. Game on for Brand

  21. I keep finding it bemusing that people will make rash calls and statements such as “game over” without any evidence when the only evidence is the AEC results.

    All polling should be treated as an input into a mosaic of info which requires critical analysis and context. It is only a potential indication of what may be going on in the electorate. I treat internal party ‘leaked’ polling with much skepticism for obvious reasons, “…understands the Liberal polling “.

    Now for the biased and those on a parties band wagon it may be great to see figures which support your party but to state that an internal poll is evidence that it is “game over” is foolhardy. The history of every election has shown this with plenty of people being left with egg on their face. Would you call a football game at 3/4 time when your team is slightly ahead? It seems that you would…..

    Based on all the polling it does appear that Wyatt is ahead and though he is most likely to retain it based on current trends this seat is still way too close.

    However, as I suggested to another poster, if you are so sure the this is “game over” then go ahead and bet your house on it! You’ll make a small fortune!

  22. The whole ALP hates WA thing is a bit of stretch winediamond. The Libs are the ones putting up the cost of living here…

    Political opinions aside.

    Let’s be honest Swan was never in play to begin with. Hasluck will remain tight, but that polling seems accurate. If that article is correct about Gray’s funds then Labor should hang on to Brand. Just.

  23. I don’t predict any change in WA. The only possibles (not likelies) for change would be Hasluck, Brand, Swan and Perth.

  24. That was me Yappo…..I got $1.85 for Sarah Henderson in Corangamite some weeks ago…. She is $1.04 now…..There is no money left to be won if you want to back the liberals in seats that were only a few weeks ago close contests. I am reliably informed that a punter had $750 k on the liberals to win the election at $1.08 with sportsbet in the last few days. Won’t he be on the edge of his seat on election night…. If you are an optomist there is some good money to be won backing ALP candidates…….

  25. Cyril said: “If you are an optomist there is some good money to be won backing ALP candidates”.

    Yes, but I’d qualify it by adding “in QLD”. I say that simply because the individual seat polls are heavily favouring the Coalition, yet the national polls for QLD have a swing to the ALP. If you take a punt on the latter, then there is good value to be had. But I don’t bet.

  26. Ken Wyatt is $1.20 while the ALP is $4.00 for this seat……..Bookies don’t want you backing Wyatt by the looks of things………..You could be right about QLD DB. Griffith is still attractive if you think the good doctor can get up………………..

Comments are closed.